Within the short-term and medium-term macroeconomic outlooks, the financial flows related to social security are handled in detail, consistent with employment policy (see ‘Labour market’) and ‘alternative financing’ of social security. The most recent government measures are also taken into account.
Within the context of population ageing (see ‘Population’), the FPB draws up long-term financial outlooks for the social protection schemes within the overall framework of public finances. In these projections, the development of socioeconomic behaviours, the number of beneficiaries of social allowances and the corresponding amounts - which themselves react to the dynamics of salaries and career evolution - are followed closely. Public expenditure for health care is estimated according to a spending profile per age and its own internal dynamic. The long-term studies, which are based on macroeconomic and social policy assumptions, show the developments of public finances, budget deficits or surpluses.
Methods and instruments
Social security modules have been developed within the macroeconomic models Modtrim and Hermes; they are supplied with a detailed exogenous analysis of social payments.
On the basis of the population projections (see ‘Population projections’ in WP 7-06), the results of the different peripheral models quoted below - with respect to specific socioeconomic behaviours and to pension and health care expenditure - supply the long-term model, MALTESE, which provides a projection of all principal determinants of the long-term evolution of the expenditure for social protection within the overall framework of public finances (see MALTESE in WP 7-06).
The MALTDEMO model is used to assess the future evolution of schooling and participation rates, whereas the model HORBLOK provides a projection of the number of pensioners in the different statutory pension schemes (see socio-demographic models in WP 7-06).
Pension expenditure, like health care expenditure, is examined in separate models governed by specific calculation rules: PENSION for the employees’ scheme, MOSES for the self-employed scheme, and PUBLIC for the civil servants’ pensions (see Social protection models in WP 7-06).
The AHEAD macroeconomic model analyses the determinants of health care expenditure in the EU Member States.
Economic outlook (annual publication, in May)
Annual Report of the Study Committee on Ageing (annual publication, in May)