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The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Long-term transport demand outlook

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  • https://transport.plan.be

News

Suburbanisation and transport: alternative demographic scenarios for the PLANET model [12/10/2023]

Suburbanisation is a well-established phenomenon in the developments of Western societies. It carries the risk of increasing transport demand, in the periphery and towards urban centres, going against sustainability objectives. This work sheds light on the link between suburbanisation and transport demand. Two demographic development scenarios are considered, framing the reference scenario of the April 2022 Transport Demand Outlook. Their effect on transport demand is analysed.

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Contact

  • https://transport.plan.be

The FPB has developed a model (PLANET) which models the evolution of transport demand. The construction of the model started in 2004. A first version became operational in 2008.

The model is used to produce:

  • long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium, both for passenger and freight transport;
  • simulations of the effects of transport policy measures;
  • cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures.

Description

The model consists of four main modules: MACRO, TRANSPORT, POLICY and WELFARE.

  • The main aim of the MACRO module is to provide macroeconomic, demographic and socio-demographic projections at the level of the NUTS3 zones for Belgium (43 administrative districts).
  • The level and composition of transport demand is provided by the TRANSPORT module according to the following steps:
    • the generation of transport demand in each Belgian NUTS3 zone;
    • the distribution of transport originating in each NUTS3 zone among the different NUTS3 zones;
    • the modal choice and choice of time of day for the journey.
  • The POLICY module summarizes the transport policies that are analysed in the alternative scenarios.
  • Finally, the WELFARE module computes the effects of transport policy measures on welfare.

The long-term transport projections in Belgium and the impact analyses of transport policies are realized in collaboration with the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport (www.mobilit.belgium.be). The projections are published every three years. The first publication dates back to 2009.

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Contact

  • https://transport.plan.be
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