Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses

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Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts [07/11/2017]

Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.

Accuracy assessment of the FPB short-term forecasts - An update [12/10/2017]

The Federal Planning Bureau is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the macroeconomic forecasts that are used to set up the federal government budget. This working paper presents an update of the ex post assessment of the quality of these forecasts.

Accuracy assessment of the FPB medium-term outlooks - An update [12/10/2017]

This working paper provides an update of a study from 2007 in which the accuracy of the medium-term outlooks for the Belgian economy is assessed. The study is expanded with nine additional editions of the Economic Outlook covering a mixture of pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods.

Belgian economic growth is expected to amount to 1.7 % in both 2017 and 2018 [07/09/2017]

The euro area economy keeps growing steadily, at 2.1 % this year and 1.8 % next year, according to estimates. Compared to the June forecasts, these figures have been revised upwards. The forecasts for the Belgian economy have also improved, albeit to a lesser extent. Employment is expected to rise by 104 000 people over these two years, while inflation should cool down considerably in 2018.

The forecasts for the Belgian economy are characterised by modest growth, steady job creation and persistent public deficits [20/06/2017]

The Federal Planning Bureau’s Economic Outlook makes it possible to outline a future ‘at unchanged policy’ of the Belgian economy for the next five years. The 2017-2022 Outlook takes into account a modest economic recovery in the euro area and is characterised by economic policy measures at the Belgian level that lead to more labour-intensive growth.

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This theme includes the short-term and medium-term economic forecasts for Belgium, as well as the production of scenario analyses. Forecasts and analyses are produced at the request of the government or the social partners. The models developed to accomplish these tasks are MODTRIM, HERMES and HERMREG.

Short-term forecasts (on the basis of the MODTRIM model) aim to forecast the main economic aggregates for the next four to six quarters.

Medium-term forecasts (on the basis of the HERMES and HERMREG models) outline a future path for the Belgian economy at a national or regional level over a longer period (five to six years).

Furthermore, the FPB regularly produces scenario analyses (using the HERMES model), assessing the impact of exogenous shocks or economic policy measures in the short and medium run.

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