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Themes

The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses

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  • http://macro.plan.be

Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts [20/03/2017]

Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.

The growth of the Belgian economy should slightly pick up to 1.4 % in 2017  [09/02/2017]

Compared to the forecasts of last September, the growth of the European economy for 2017 is revised slightly upwards. Against this backdrop, Belgian GDP growth for 2017 is raised from 1.2 % to 1.4 %. Moreover, Belgian growth in 2016 and 2017 seems to be more labour intensive than expected. Higher oil prices would push inflation just above 2% in 2017.

Public Investment in Belgium [27/01/2017]

Belgian government investment, and specifically the part spent on infrastructure, is relatively low both in historical terms and compared to neighbouring countries. A simulation with the European Commission’s Quest III model suggests that increasing government investment permanently by 0.5% of GDP leads to a growth in GDP, private consumption and private investment. The impact of alternative financing mechanisms is compared.

Regionale economische vooruitzichten 2016-2021 [08/07/2016]

Dit rapport presenteert de resultaten van de regionalisering van de nationale economische vooruitzichten van het Federaal Planbureau voor de periode 2016-2021. Net als de vorige rapporten, is dit rapport het resultaat van een samenwerking tussen het Federaal Planbureau en de studiediensten van de drie Belgische gewesten (BISA, IWEPS en SVR). In dat kader kan het multiregionaal en multisectoraal HERMREG-model in de categorie macro-econometrische modellen van het top-downtype worden gerangschikt. HERMREG stemt volledig overeen met het nationale HERMES-model van het Federaal Planbureau. Dat betekent dat de nationale middellangetermijnvooruitzichten van HERMES opgesplitst worden op het niveau van de beschouwde entiteiten op basis van endogene regionale verdeelsleutels.

Around 1.5% growth for the Belgian economy over the period 2017 to 2021, sustained job creation but limited reduction in the public deficit [21/06/2016]

According to our “Economic Outlook for 2016-2021” , Belgian economic growth is expected to rise from 1.2% in 2016 to 1.5% per year on average over the period of 2017 to 2021. Employment is assumed to increase at a sustained pace (creation of more than 38 000 jobs per year on average over the 2016-2021 period).  The fiscal deficit is forecast to increase from 2.5% of GDP in 2015 to 2.8% in 2016, to decline to 2.2% of GDP in 2017 and subsequently to remain almost stable. The economic weight of general government, in particular with regard to employment, should be declining.

Contact

  • http://macro.plan.be

This theme includes the short-term and medium-term economic forecasts for Belgium, as well as the production of scenario analyses. Forecasts and analyses are produced at the request of the government or the social partners. The models developed to accomplish these tasks are MODTRIM, HERMES and HERMREG.

Short-term forecasts (on the basis of the MODTRIM model) aim to forecast the main economic aggregates for the next four to six quarters.

Medium-term forecasts (on the basis of the HERMES and HERMREG models) outline a future path for the Belgian economy at a national or regional level over a longer period (five to six years).

Furthermore, the FPB regularly produces scenario analyses (using the HERMES model), assessing the impact of exogenous shocks or economic policy measures in the short and medium run.

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Contact

  • http://macro.plan.be
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