Short-term forecasts and business cycle

Contact

  • http://macro.plan.be

Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts [07/11/2017]

Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.

Accuracy assessment of the FPB short-term forecasts - An update [12/10/2017]

The Federal Planning Bureau is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the macroeconomic forecasts that are used to set up the federal government budget. This working paper presents an update of the ex post assessment of the quality of these forecasts.

Belgian economic growth is expected to amount to 1.7 % in both 2017 and 2018 [07/09/2017]

The euro area economy keeps growing steadily, at 2.1 % this year and 1.8 % next year, according to estimates. Compared to the June forecasts, these figures have been revised upwards. The forecasts for the Belgian economy have also improved, albeit to a lesser extent. Employment is expected to rise by 104 000 people over these two years, while inflation should cool down considerably in 2018.

Belgian economic growth should amount to 1.6 % both in 2017 and 2018 [08/06/2017]

European economic activity has so far proved to be more robust than expected in the wake of the Brexit referendum. The growth forecasts for the Belgian economy in 2017 have hence been revised upwards to 1.6 %. The same growth rate is expected in 2018. In both years, private consumption and business investment in particular should support economic growth. Net employment should rise by 105 000 people over these two years, while inflation should cool down in 2018. In accordance with the Law of 21 December 1994, the National Accounts Institute (NAI) has transmitted the figures of the economic budget to the Minister for Economy. These macroeconomic forecasts will serve as a basis for the 2018 budget review.

Contact

  • http://macro.plan.be

The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) produces macroeconomic forecasts for the federal government within the framework of the preparation of the federal budget (June and September) and of the budget review (February). Ultimate responsibility for these forecasts (also known as the ‘Economic Budget’) lies with the board of the National Accounts Institute.

The forecasts concern the components of GDP, both on the expenditure side (consumption, gross capital formation, exports and imports) and on the revenue side. They also deal with the revenue and expenditure flows between the different institutional sectors, with inflation and with the labour market.

Methods and instruments

The three main instruments are:

  • the short-term national macroeconomic models MODTRIM I (annual model) and MODTRIM II (quarterly model);
  • the inflation module (on a monthly basis);
  • the system of leading indicators of the FPB.

For a detailed presentation of MODTRIM II, see Working Paper 06-03 and Working Paper 05-14.

Periodical publications

The results of the Economic Budgets of February, June and September are published by means of a press release and a statistical appendix. A more detailed publication is produced for the Economic Budgets of February and September.

Data

The detailed statistical appendix of the latest Economic Budget is available under the heading Data.

Contact

  • http://macro.plan.be
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