Once a year, usually in June, the FPB publishes a medium-term macrosectoral outlook. Since 2014, the FPB has also produced a brief provisional version of this outlook in March as a contribution to the preparation of the Stability Programme and the National Reform Programme that have to be submitted to the European Commission in April.
The first year of the outlook is generally based on the short-term forecasts of February (updated if need be). The subsequent years ought to be considered as a projection that outlines a possible future under the assumption of unchanged policies for the Belgian economy and highlights the economic imbalances that are likely to occur over a period of five to six years.
The medium-term outlooks also analyse in detail the expected development of public finances, as well as of the labour market and energy demand. They also include the future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions.
Methods and instruments
These outlooks are produced using the macrosectoral HERMES model. The current version of the model comprises more than 8 000 equations and about 10 000 variables. The relatively large size of the model has to do with the degree of disaggregation (15 branches of industry and 15 consumption functions) and with the development of a detailed public finance module. For a description of the model, see Working Paper 05-00, Working Paper 05-04 and Working Paper 13-13.
Next to macrosectoral forecasting, the HERMES model is also used for scenario analysis in order to determine the impact of certain shocks (e.g. on oil prices or on export markets' growth) or policy measures (on an economic and social level) on economic growth, employment, public finances, sectoral indicators, energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions.
A full description of the medium-term economic outlook is given in an annual publication, published in June. Since 2014, the FPB has also produced a brief provisional version of this outlook in a report published in March. Variant analyses are published on a case-by-case basis.
The detailed statistical appendix of the macroeconomic and sectoral results of the outlook of June is available under the heading Data.
The last five press releases [More]
- Perspectives économiques régionales 2017-2022 - La croissance économique demeure différente entre les trois régions et est intensive en emploi
Regionale economische vooruitzichten 2017-2022 - Economische groei blijft verschillen tussen de drie gewesten en is arbeidsintensief13/07/2017
- The forecasts for the Belgian economy are characterised by modest growth, steady job creation and persistent public deficits20/06/2017
- Des investissements publics pour soutenir la croissance en Belgique
Hogere overheidsinvesteringen om de groei in België aan te zwengelen27/01/2017
- Perspectives économiques régionales 2016-2021
Regionale economische vooruitzichten 2016-202108/07/2016
- Around 1.5% growth for the Belgian economy over the period 2017 to 2021, sustained job creation but limited reduction in the public deficit21/06/2016
The last five databases [More]
- Medium-Term Economic Outlook (2017-2022) - Statistical annex 20/06/2017
- Regional Economic Outlook 2017-2022 - Statistical annex 08/07/2016
The last five publications [More]
- Accuracy assessment of the FPB medium-term outlooks - An update 30/09/2017
- Perspectives économiques régionales 2017-2022
Regionale economische vooruitzichten 2017-2022 13/07/2017
- Perspectives économiques 2017-2022
Economische vooruitzichten 2017-2022 20/06/2017
- Economische vooruitzichten 2017-2022 - Versie van maart 2017
Perspectives économiques 2017-2022 - Version de mars 2017 27/03/2017
- Public Investment in Belgium - Current State and Economic Impact 26/01/2017