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Every three years, the Ageing Working Group (AWG) of the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) of the ECOFIN Council carries out long-term projections of social expenditure for the 27 EU Member States and Norway. These projections are published in the “Ageing Report” under the joint responsibility of the EPC and the European Commission.
The results of these social expenditure projections are used when the European Commission assesses the fiscal sustainability of the Member States.
The AWG projections are based on demographic scenarios provided by Eurostat and socio-economic and macro-economic scenarios established by the European Commission, after discussion within the AWG.
Of all social expenditure, only public pension expenditure (including expenditure for disability and unemployment with company bonus for non-job seekers) is projected using national models. In the case of Belgium, this is the MALTESE model of the Federal Planning Bureau (see Financial evolution of social protection).
The other projected social expenditure, namely health care and long-term care expenditure and education expenditure, is estimated using models elaborated by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) of the European Commission.
Federal Planning Bureau
