Guy Vandille

En 2001, Guy Vandille a obtenu son doctorat en sciences économiques à la KULeuven. Depuis lors, il travaille au Bureau fédéral du Plan où il est en charge des comptes économiques de l'environnement. Ainsi, il a collaboré à l'élaboration de différents rapports ayant trait aux comptes suivants: Air Emissions Accounts, (Physical) Energy (Flow) Accounts, Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts, Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts, Environmental Goods and Services Sector account, et Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity. Tous ces comptes satellites des comptes nationaux ont été élaborés en collaboration avec Eurostat et selon une méthodologie élaborée par Eurostat. Il fait également partie de l'équipe Comptes et analyses sectoriels et environnementaux et collabore en cette qualité à l'élaboration des tableaux des emplois et des ressources et entrées-sorties pour la Belgique.

En combinant les comptes économiques de l'environnement entre eux et avec des données économiques contenues notamment dans les tableaux entrées-sorties, il a analysé, entre autres, les facteurs sous-jacents expliquant l'évolution des émissions de dioxyde de carbone par l'économie belge, et il a comparé la mesure dans laquelle la Belgique est parvenue à limiter les émissions de polluants atmosphériques par ses importations de biens et de services, avec la quantité d'émissions générées par notre pays pour produire ses exportations.

 

Coordonnées

Equipes

  • Comptes et analyses sectoriels et environnementaux
  • Comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie 2010-2014

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir en 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.
    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes EW-MFA pour la période 2010-2014.

    EWMFA 2016 [20/12/2016]
  • Taxes environnementales par activité économique 2010-2014

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir depuis 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.

    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique pour la période 2010-2014.

    ETEA 2016 [30/09/2016]
  • Comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie 2009-2013

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir en 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.

    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes EW-MFA pour la période 2009-2013.

    EWMFA 2015 [21/12/2015]
  • Taxes environnementales par activité économique 2008-2013

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir depuis 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.

    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique pour la période 2008-2013.

    ETEA 2015 [29/09/2015]
  • Comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie 2008-2012

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir en 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.

    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes EW-MFA pour la période 2008-2012.

    EWMFA 2014 [19/12/2014]
  • Taxes environnementales par activité économique 2008-2012

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir depuis 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.

    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique pour la période 2008-2012.

    ETEA 2014 [29/09/2014]
  • Comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie - 2008-2011

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir en 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.

    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes EW-MFA pour la période 2008-2011.

    EWMFA 2013 [20/12/2013]
  • Tableaux Entrées-Sorties 2010

    L’Institut des Comptes Nationaux (ICN) présente dans cette publication les tableaux entrées-sorties à prix courants pour l’année 2010, élaborés conformément à la méthodologie du SEC 1995 ainsi que dans les nomenclatures NACE Rév. 2/CPA 2008. Conjointement aux tableaux des ressources et des emplois dont ils sont déduits, les tableaux entrées-sorties assurent la cohérence des comptes nationaux. Les tableaux présentés dans cette publication sont cohérents avec les Comptes nationaux, Partie 2 – Comptes détaillés et tableaux 2012, publiés par l’ICN en octobre 2013. Les tableaux entrées-sorties constituent en outre un instrument d’analyse, mis à la disposition des décideurs, pour l’étude des relations interindustrielles et les études d’impact direct et indirect.

    Input-Output Table 2010 [20/12/2013]
  • Taxes environnementales par activité économique - 2008-2011

    Conformément au règlement européen n° 691/2011, les Etats membres de l’Union européenne sont tenus d’établir en 2013 trois comptes économiques de l’environnement. Il s’agit des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique, des comptes des émissions atmosphériques et des comptes des flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie.

    L’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) présente, dans cette publication, les comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales par activité économique pour la période 2008-2011.

    ETEA 2013 [30/09/2013]
  • Comptes de l'environnement pour la Belgique - Comptes économiques de l'environnement 1990-2008

    Le règlement européen (UE) n° 691/ 2011 impose à tous les Etats membres d’établir, chaque année à partir de 2013, trois comptes économiques de l’environnement et de les soumettre à Eurostat. Il s’agit des comptes des émissions atmosphériques (AEA), des comptes relatifs aux taxes environnementales (ETEA) et des comptes de flux de matières à l’échelle de l’économie (EW-MFA). Grâce aux projets- pilotes cofinancés par Eurostat, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a acquis, au cours des dix dernières années, une expertise dans la construction et l’analyse des AEA et ETEA. Il a en outre développé des comptes de la consommation d’énergie, qui présentent un lien direct avec les comptes des émissions atmosphériques, ainsi que des comptes de dépenses de protection de l’environnement (EPEA). La présente publication synthétise les résultats de ces quatre comptes de l’environnement. En ce qui concerne les EW-MFA, les résultats ne sont pas encore disponibles.

    Planning Paper 111 [11/09/2012]
  • Short Term Update 01-12 : Special Topic - Decomposition analysis of changes in CO2 emissions by the Belgian industries

    Headlines Belgian economy

    Since the start of 2012, tensions in money and bond markets have receded somewhat in most euro countries. Together with the recent uptick in most confidence indicators, this is expected to lead to a bottoming out of European GDP. Assuming the sovereign debt crisis does not intensify again, economic activity should gradually pick up in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, on a yearly basis, this implies negative euro area GDP growth of -0.3%, which is a substantial downward revision as compared to our September forecasts (1.2%). This scenario remains highly uncertain, with renewed turmoil in financial markets as the main risk.

    Belgian economic growth amounted to 1.9% in 2011, although economic activity fell slightly during the second semester. In 2012, quarterly growth should remain very modest against the background of a gradual pick-up in the European business cycle and of the austerity measures already taken by the Belgian government. Economic activity ought to stabilize in 2012Q1, followed by a slight export-led upturn (up to qoq growth of 0.2% in 2012Q4). Economic growth should remain limited to 0.1% on a yearly basis.

    Due to the lack of dynamism in the business cycle, job creation has stagnated since mid-2011 and should only slightly recover in the course of this year, leading to an average annual increase of 6 400 units in 2012. As a result, the harmonised unemployment rate (Eurostat definition) should rise from 7.2% in 2011 to 7.5% in 2012.

    Our most recent inflation forecasts were finalised at the end of February. Belgian inflation, as measured by the yoy growth rate of the national consumer price index, should amount to 3.0% on average this year. This upward revision (compared to our 2.7% forecast at the end of January) is largely due to price increases for energy products as a result of higher oil prices.

    STU 1-12 was finalised on 16 March 2012.

    Short Term Update 01-12 [Contributeur - 16/03/2012]
  • Short Term Update 04-10 : Special topic - The Europe 2020 Strategy: economic forecasts 2010-2020

    Headlines Belgian Economy

    In October, the FPB prepared an update of its medium-term economic outlook of May 2010. This new outlook covers a longer period (2010-2020) than usual because it was drawn up in the framework of the macroeconomic surveillance process under the Europe 2020 Strategy, with a view to the preparation of the draft Belgian National Reform Programme.

    This new outlook for Belgium is based on an international context that is marked by a recovery that should emerge in 2010-2011 and even gain momentum in the medium term. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts continues to be higher than before the financial crisis. Large budget deficits and global imbalances continue to threaten the stability of worldwide economic growth.

    Yearly Belgian economic growth should amount to approximately 1.8% in 2010 and 2011 (based on our September forecast described in STU 3-10) and fluctuate around 2% thereafter. After a sharp decline in 2009, domestic demand has been expected to rise again in 2010, despite the on-going fall in business investment. As of 2011, domestic demand should rise at an average yearly rate of 1.8% as its various components regain their trend-based growth. Belgian exports, which fell by 11% in 2009, have recovered significantly in 2010. Thereafter, exports should grow at a rate close to its historical average. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be positive for the whole projection period (0.3-0.4 %-points on average for 2012-2020). Employment seems to have already experienced a moderate recovery in 2010.

    Employment should increase further in 2011 and 2012, but at a limited pace as employers try to push up labour productivity and average working time from the historically very low levels that they reached in 2009.  From 2013 to 2015, employment growth should become more sustained before gradually dropping again towards the end of the forecast. Employment as a percentage of the population aged between 20 and 64 years should initially fall from 68% in 2008 to 66.9% in 2010, but should recover to 68.2% in 2015 and 69.8% in 2020, a rate still well below the 75% target set by the EU. Unemployment (broad
    administrative definition) is expected to peak in 2012 at a level that is 103 000 units higher than in 2008. From 2013 onwards, unemployment should slowly decline and reach 591 000 units in 2020.

    The general government budget deficit should shrink from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of GDP in 2010, 4.6% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012. Thereafter, the deficit should remain almost constant up to 2020. A  further and considerable fiscal adjustment is thus necessary to cut back the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 and achieve a balanced budget in 2015 in accordance with the Stability Programme of January 2010.

    STU 04-10 was finalised on 22 December 2010.

    Short Term Update 04-10 [Contributeur - 22/12/2010]
  • Tableaux Entrées-Sorties de la Belgique pour 2005

    L’Institut des Comptes Nationaux (ICN) présente dans cette publication les tableaux entrées-sorties à prix courants pour l’année 2005 élaborés conformément à la méthodologie du SEC 1995. Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) est responsable, dans le cadre de l’ICN, de l’élaboration des tableaux entrées-sorties quinquennaux. Dans cette publication, la méthodologie de l’élaboration des tableaux entrées-sorties est décrite et les résultats sont présentés aux niveaux 6x6. Des tableaux plus détaillés sont disponibles (depuis fin mars 2010) sur le site internet du BFP. Le cadre des entrées et sorties décrit de manière détaillée le processus de production et les flux de biens et services dans l'économie belge. Conjointement aux tableaux des ressources et des emplois dont ils sont déduits, les tableaux entrées-sorties assurent la cohérence des comptes nationaux. Ils constituent en outre un instrument d’analyse, mis à la disposition des décideurs, pour l’étude des relations interindustrielles et les études d’impact direct et indirect. Ces dernières années, on a observé un renouveau de l'utilisation des tableaux emplois-ressources et des tableaux entrées-sorties, notamment à des fins d'analyse dans le domaine de la mondialisation et de l'économie de l'environnement.
     

    Input-Output Table 2005 [20/05/2010]
  • Déclaration environnementale du Bureau Fédéral du Plan 2015-2017 - Mise à jour 2016 (données 2015)

    Le personnel et la direction du Bureau fédéral du Plan sont sensibles à l’impact de leurs activités sur l’environnement et de nombreuses initiatives ont été mises en place depuis plus de 10 ans. Notre institution met tout en oeuvre pour davantage réduire ses impacts négatifs et multiplier ses impacts positifs sur l’environnement et continuera à le faire dans le futur.

    EMAS_012_1 [Contributeur - 05/02/2010]
  • Short Term Update 04-09

    In view of the new round of stability and convergence programmes (SCP) by the EMU member states, the FPB transmitted a medium-term outlook for the Belgian economy to the federal government. In this outlook, the short-term international assumptions are based on the November forecasts of the EC. These assumptions result in a gradual recovery of Belgian GDP in 2010 (0.8%) and 2011 (1.6%), after a decline of 3.1% in 2009. More information on this simulation can be found on pages 5-6.

    As world trade appears to recover at a faster pace than expected in the EC outlook, the FPB produced a technical update of the SCP-simulation. This second simulation results in relatively stronger Belgian economic growth in 2010 and 2011 (1.1% and 1.7% respectively). From 2012 to 2014 economic growth is expected to be 2.1% on average, which might not be sufficient to close the output gap by 2014. Comments in the next paragraphs are based on this exercise.

    Private demand was heavily affected by the financial and economic crisis. Private consumption suffered from a lack of confidence which brought an important increase along in the savings rate in 2009. In the medium term, consumption growth should gradually recover but remain below 2%. Gross fixed capital formation plummeted in 2009 and is unlikely to recover soon as idle production capacity is still abundant. From 2011 to 2014, average investment growth should amount to 2.1%. Exports declined by more than 10% in 2009, but should recover from 2010 onwards and reach an average growth rate of 4.4% from 2011 to 2014.

    As employment typically reacts with a lag to the business cycle, the decrease in employment should even be stronger in 2010 than in 2009, before increasing gradually from 2011 onwards. The (broad administrative) unemployment rate should increase by 2.5 percentage points in 3 years and reach 14.3% in 2011. From 2012 onwards the unemployment rate should diminish somewhat, but total administrative unemployment should still amount to more than 730 000 persons in  2014 (130 000 persons more than in 2008).

    Due to the recession the public deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP in 2009. Under an unchanged policy assumption the net public financing requirement should decline by 0.6% of GDP in 2010 and roughly stabilise somewhat below 5.5% in the medium term.

    STU 04-09 was finalised on 21 December 2009.

    Short Term Update 04-09 [Contributeur - 21/12/2009]
  • Indicateurs, objectifs et visions de développement durable - Rapport fédéral sur le développement durable 2009

    Indicateurs, objectifs et visions de développement durable, Rapport fédéral sur le développement durable 2009, est une contribution au large débat sur les indicateurs permettant de mesurer les progrès des sociétés et d’en débattre.

    Le Rapport est centré sur l’étude d’un tableau d’indicateurs de développement durable (IDD) qui montre dans quelle mesure des objectifs stratégiques d’un développement durable (OSDD) sont en cours de réalisation en Belgique. Il examine aussi le choix de ces objectifs stratégiques dans le cadre de visions à  long terme de l’évolution de la société, de l’environnement, de l’économie et des politiques publiques.

    Sustainable development Report 2009 [Contributeur - 26/10/2009]
  • The Belgian environment industry (1995-2005)

    Cette étude présente un aperçu de l'évolution de la taille, de la composition et de l'importance économique de l'industrie de l'environnement en Belgique entre 1995 et 2005. Elle indique quelles branches industrielles sont concernées et quels domaines de l'environnement sont les plus importants pour notre industrie.

    Working Paper 07-09 [20/06/2009]
  • STU 04-08 : Special Topic : The Belgian financial system at the onset of the crisis

    The FPB has revised its medium-term outlook for 2008-2013 for the Belgian economy. For the 2008-2010 period, the outlook adopts the international economic scenario provided by the OECD outlook of November 2008. The uncertainty surrounding the results is exceptionally large and downside risks could prove to be greater than upside risks. The greatest downside risks include a longer than expected period of distress on financial markets, and that emerging markets could be hit harder than anticipated.

    The outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching only 1.5% during the period 2008-2013 (1.9% for the period 2001-2007). This relatively weak performance is largely explained by weak GDP growth in 2008 (1.4%), a fall in economic growth next year (-0.3%) and a limited recovery in 2010. Over the period 2011-2013, GDP growth is expected to stabilise at a rate slightly above 2%, which might not allow the output gap to be completely closed by the end of the projection.

    After dynamic growth in 2007, private consumption expansion should be much more limited in 2008 and 2009. From 2010 onwards, household demand growth should increase gradually and then stabilise at a rate close to 2%. After dynamic growth in 2008, gross fixed capital formation should slightly decrease in 2009, before recovering in 2010 and increasing by 2.4% on average during the 2011-2013 period. Given the unfavourable international environment next year, exports are expected to decrease in 2009. Over the period 2010-2013, exports should increase by 4.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be slightly positive.

    The worsening of the economic situation should lead to a decrease in employment in 2009. In the medium term, employment should increase again, at a yearly rate reaching 0.8% at the end of the projection. With employment growth heavily affected by the adverse economic situation in the short run and in view of the increase in the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad definition) will soar to 12.9% by 2010 (against 11.9% in 2008), before levelling off at around 13.2% from 2011 onwards. Total administrative unemployment should stand at almost 700,000 persons in 2013 (65,000 persons more than in 2007).

    Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 1.6% of GDP in 2009, 2.4% in 2010 and up to 2.6% in 2011-2013.

    STU 04-08 was finalised on 11 December 2008.

    Short Term Update 04-08 [Contributeur - 11/12/2008]
  • Quantifying environmental leakage for Belgium

    Pour contribuer à résoudre divers problèmes environnementaux d’envergure mondiale des objectifs de réduction d’émissions territoriales ont été fixés. Les objectifs de réduction d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre définis dans le cadre du Protocole de Kyoto en sont un exemple bien connu. Au niveau des entreprises, cela implique que les émissions sont liées à la production. Une telle approche peut amener certaines entreprises à estimer que le coût de ces réductions est trop élevé et à délocaliser partiellement ou complètement leur production polluante vers des pays où les exigences environnementales sont moins strictes. Ce phénomène de ‘fuite environnementale’ préoccupe de plus en plus la Communauté internationale.

    Working Paper 19-08 [30/10/2008]
  • STU 04-07 : Special Topic : Why the medium-low paid benefit less from gross wage increases than the better paid

    On the basis of its short term economic forecast of September and revised figures for the medium-term international economic environment, the FPB has updated its medium-term outlook 2007-2012. GDP growth should reach 2.1% on average and should be driven by both domestic demand and exports, although the structural loss of export market shares should remain significant: while growth in our potential export markets will reach 6.8% a year on average, exports are expected to record an average annual increase of 5.4%.

    The growth of private consumption (1.8% on average) should be in line with the growth of real disposable income (1.9% on average). Gross fixed capital formation should continue to register sustained growth, attaining an average of 3.1%, mainly reflecting an increase in business investment, but also an acceleration of public investment in view of the local elections of 2012. Inflation (as measured by private consumption deflator growth) should be below 2% on average during the projection period, despite an acceleration in 2008: inflation could even climb to 2.5% next year, according to the latest update of the monthly inflation forecasts of FPB. Limited wage increases (lower than productivity gains), the increase in interest rates, a negative output gap and a moderate increase in imported costs are the main factors accounting for the low inflation rate in the medium term.

    Total employment will increase by more than 40,000 jobs a year on average during the projection period, due to sustained economic growth combined with persistently modest labour productivity (1.4% per year). Due to ongoing structural shifts in the sectoral composition of employment, the manufacturing industry will incur a further loss of 6,000 jobs a year on average, whereas market services should gain 46,000 jobs a year. The employment rate is expected to increase from 62.6% in 2006 to 65.4% in 2012; the fall in the unemployment rate (from 13.8% in 2006 to 11.0% in 2012 -broad definition) should accelerate at the end of the projection period, when baby-boomers will leave the labour force on a massive scale.

    The pace of employment growth should have nearly doubled during the period 2001-2012 compared with the previous decade, despite very similar average economic growth rates for both periods.

    STU 04-07 was finalised on 10 December 2007.

    Short Term Update 04-07 [Contributeur - 13/12/2007]
  • STU 04-06 : Special Topic : Promoting an innovative economy: the Belgian National Reform Programme

    In the October update of the FPB medium-term outlook for Belgium, GDP growth reaches an average of 2.3% for the 2006-2011 period. This development will be driven by both domestic demand and exports, although the contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to be limited. The growth of private consumption (1.9% on average) should be in line with the growth of household disposable income in real terms (2% on average). Gross fixed capital formation should grow by 2.7% (on average). The structural loss of export market shares should remain significant, with exports increasing by 5.5% a year on average, compared with a 6.8% growth in our potential export markets.

    After climbing to 2.4% in 2006 because of high energy prices, inflation (as measured by the private consumption deflator) should fall below 2% in the medium term, mainly because of limited wage growth, the increase in interest rates and moderate rises in prices of imports (notably owing to the decrease in oil prices). Total employment is expected to increase by about 38,500 jobs a year during the 2006-2011 period, despite new job losses in manufacturing. The factors behind this performance are: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a further small reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate is expected to be limited due to the substantial rise in the labour force. However, at the end of the projection period - when baby-boomers will leave the labour force on a massive scale - the growth of the labour force should lose momentum, allowing the decrease in the unemployment rate to accelerate.

    All in all, economic growth should be stronger for the next six years compared to the previous six years, leading to the same average GDP growth rate during the period 2000-2011 as during the period 1990-1999. At the same time, the pace of employment growth should have nearly doubled (yearly 35,000 on average during the same period 2000-2011, against slightly less than 20,000 yearly during the former decade), reflecting a considerable decline in productivity gains.

    This medium term outlook does not take into account the measures taken within the framework of the 2007 budget.

    STU 4-06 was finalised on 11 December 2006.

    Short Term Update 04-06 [Contributeur - 15/12/2006]
  • STU 02-06 : Special Topic - Decomposition analysis of changes in CO2 emissions by the Belgian industries

    HEADLINES BELGIAN ECONOMY - MAY 2006

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2006-2011 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.0%). This pace of growth should follow a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.5%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.4%). Economic growth in Belgium should remain slightly higher than in the euro area, on average.

    Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the 2006-2011 period, in particular because of the increase in household disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax and increases in employment and social benefits). Investment growth should reach 2.5% during the 2006-2011 period, mainly reflecting the path of business investment growth, but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should be 5.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.3%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should increase again after 2007 and attain 3.2% of GDP in 2011 (partly as a result of the improvement of the terms of trade). Limited increases in wage costs, the decline in oil prices after 2007 and a negative output gap until the end of the projection period, should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.

    The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, a limited increase in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 39,000 and 41,000 jobs in 2005 and 2006 respectively, about 35,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2007-2011 period. Between 2005 and 2011, industrial employment should fall by 30,000 persons, but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 250,000. Nevertheless, in view of the strong increase in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age class) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 38,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.1% in 2011.

    Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP appearing in 2006, widening to 1.2% in 2007, before gradually falling to 0.3% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still expected to decline from 93.9% in 2005 to 78.0% in 2011.

    Short Term Update 02-06 [Contributeur - 19/05/2006]
  • STU 04-05 : Special Topic - Transdisciplinarity and the governance of sustainable development

    HEADLINES BELGIAN ECONOMY - DECEMBER 2005

    The latest update of the FPB medium-term outlook for Belgium shows an average GDP growth reaching 2.1% during the 2005-2010 period. This development can be largely accounted for by both domestic demand and exports, although the contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to be limited; the current account should continue to decrease until 2006 due to terms of trade losses. Private consumption should grow at a moderate pace during the projection period (1.7% on average), in line with growth of households’ disposable income in real terms. At the same time, gross fixed capital formation (and particularly business investment) should grow at a sustained pace with annual growth reaching 2.9% on average. The structural loss of export market share should be important, with exports increasing by 5% a year on average, compared with a 6.5% growth of our potential export markets.

    Inflation should reach 2.2% on average during the projection period, due to figures close to 3% in 2005 and 2006. The current acceleration is explained by high energy prices and the recent depreciation of the euro against the dollar. However, inflation should be around 2% in 2007 and fall below 2% at the end of the projection period, mainly because of limited wage increases and moderate rises in imported costs. Employment is expected to increase by about 33,000 jobs a year during the 2005-2010 period. This performance can be explained by several factors: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a - although very slow - reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate should be very limited due to a considerable increase in the working population.

    The FPB October update of the medium term outlook for Belgium does not yet take into account the measures taken within the framework of the 2006 budget.

    Short Term Update 04-05 [Contributeur - 23/12/2005]
  • Regionale emissievooruitzichten

    Working Paper 05-05 [07/04/2005]
  • Les comptes environnementaux en Belgique

    Cette étude a pour objet d’analyser, d’une part, les dépenses liées à la protection de l’environnement, d’autre part, la pollution de l’air et de l’eau en Belgique dans le cadre des comptes environnementaux. Ceux-ci permettent de relier données environnementales et économiques, ce qui en fait un instrument de travail de choix pour la politique de développement durable.

    Planning Paper 93 [20/09/2003]
  • STU 02-02 : Special Topic - Sectoral air pollution and eco-efficiency in Belgium

    During recent months it has become clear that the turning point in the business cycle has been passed both in the US and in the euro area. Attention has shifted since then to the question of how strong the recovery will be and what will be the forces driving it. A substantial improvement in the labour market situation is now the missing link to ensure a seamless transition from a more technical inventories-led upturn to a broader demand-led recovery and to avoid the risk of a double dip scenario, both in the US and in the euro area. As the labour market situation reacts to economic activity with a certain time lag, it is crucial that the business cycle upturn should remain sufficiently strong to persuade entrepreneurs to increase their staff.

    According to the FPB’s leading indicator, the Belgian GDP cycle should only begin to climb in the second half of 2002. As a result, GDP should record an average annual increase this year which is almost identical to last year, i.e. 1.0%. Its composition and dynamics should, however, be quite different. The economic upturn should only have a positive impact on employment by the end of the year. The full positive impact of the economic recovery will become visible in 2003, with an expected GDP growth rate of 3.0%. In April 2002, national consumer price inflation fell below 2% (yoy) and it should stay below that level on average in 2002 and 2003.

    Short Term Update 02-02 [Contributeur - 12/06/2002]
Please do not visit, its a trap for bots