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The FPB not only publishes the results of its research, but also a set of databases. These databases can contain either historical data or forecasts.

Consumer Price Index - Inflation forecasts [05/09/2017]

The inflation forecasts from September 2017 until the end of 2018 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until August 2017 from the FPS Economy. These forecasts take into account futures of 28 August 2017. The oil price should amount to 51 dollar per barrel on average in 2017 and 52 dollar per barrel in 2018. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.14 dollar per euro on average in 2017 and 1.22 dollar per euro in 2018. The strong decrease in inflation in 2018 is partly due to the withdrawal of the ‘contribution to the Energy Fund’ in the Flemish Region from January 2018 onwards. Possible replacement measures are not taken into account at this stage.

On the basis of these monthly inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 2.1% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018, compared to 1.97% in 2016 and 0.56% in 2015. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 1.8% in 2017 and 1.1% in 2018, compared to 2.09% in 2016 and 1.05% in 2015.

In May 2017, the pivotal index for the public sector was last exceeded. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the pivotal index for public wages and social benefits (currently 105.10) should not be exceeded by the smoothed health index (as defined in the law of 23.04.2015 on employment promotion, Belgian Official Journal of 27.04.2015) in 2017 or in 2018.

The inflation forecasts are updated the first Tuesday of every month (except for August) taking the latest available information into account. Next update: 3 October 2017.

Conversion coefficients

National consumer price index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.

Health index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.

National consumer price index (2018)

2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 105.48 105.73 105.93 106.30 106.32 106.27 106.60 106.51 106.26 106.50 106.62 106.57
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.15 1.01 0.97 1.15 1.26 1.36 1.38 1.23 1.20 1.19 1.20 1.21

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2018)

2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 105.90 106.10 106.24 106.62 106.62 106.59 106.92 106.84 106.59 106.82 106.93 106.95
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.19 0.99 0.87 1.10 1.14 1.23 1.22 1.10 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.08
Smoothed health index (2) 103.69 103.79 103.89 104.09 104.27 104.39 104.55 104.61 104.60 104.66 104.66 104.69
Reference index (3)

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2017)

2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 104.28 104.67 104.91 105.09 105.00 104.84 105.15 105.22 105.00 105.25 105.36 105.30
Growth rates (%) (1) 2.65 2.97 2.28 2.28 1.86 1.60 1.78 1.90 1.90 1.85 1.89 1.70

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2017)

2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 104.65 105.06 105.32 105.46 105.42 105.29 105.63 105.68 105.47 105.70 105.81 105.81
Growth rates (%) (1) 2.18 2.47 1.79 1.86 1.59 1.49 1.64 1.64 1.73 1.77 1.77 1.69
Smoothed health index (2) 102.05 102.34 102.67 103.02 103.21 103.27 103.34 103.39 103.41 103.51 103.55 103.58
Reference index (3)

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2016)

2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 101.59 101.65 102.57 102.75 103.08 103.19 103.31 103.26 103.04 103.34 103.41 103.54
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.74 1.39 2.24 2.04 2.20 2.16 2.28 2.16 1.87 1.81 1.77 2.03

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2016)

2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 102.42 102.53 103.47 103.53 103.77 103.74 103.93 103.97 103.68 103.86 103.97 104.05
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.80 1.63 2.72 2.38 2.58 2.38 2.53 2.32 1.80 1.55 1.65 1.78
Smoothed health index (2) 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.93 101.26 101.55 101.67 101.78 101.75 101.78 101.79 101.81
Reference index (3) 100.25 100.32 100.61 100.93

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2015)

2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 99.85 100.26 100.32 100.70 100.86 101.01 101.01 101.08 101.15 101.50 101.61 101.48
Growth rates (%) (1) -0.65 -0.40 -0.40 0.29 0.56 0.63 0.46 0.91 1.06 1.28 1.52 1.50

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2015)

2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 100.61 100.89 100.73 101.12 101.16 101.33 101.37 101.61 101.85 102.27 102.28 102.23
Growth rates (%) (1) 0.01 0.14 -0.06 0.68 0.87 0.99 0.91 1.49 1.79 1.98 1.99 1.82
Smoothed health index (2) 100.39 100.55 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66
Reference index (3) 98.82 98.96 99.06 99.22 99.34 99.51 99.74 99.96 100.11

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

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