Consumer Price Index - Inflation forecasts [06/06/2017]

The inflation forecasts from June 2017 until the end of 2018 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until May 2017 from the FPS Economy. These forecasts take into account futures of 26 May 2017. The oil price should amount to 53 dollar per barrel on average in 2017 and in 2018. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.10 dollar per euro on average in 2017 and 1.14 dollar per euro in 2018.

On the basis of these monthly inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 2.1% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018, compared to 1.97% in 2016 and 0.56% in 2015. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 1.8% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018, compared to 2.09% in 2016 and 1.05% in 2015.

In May 2017, the pivotal index for the public sector was last exceeded. As a result, social benefits will be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in June 2017 and public wages will follow suit in July 2017. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the pivotal index for public wages and social benefits (currently 105.10) should not be exceeded by the smoothed health index (as defined in the law of 23.04.2015 on employment promotion, Belgian Official Journal of 27.04.2015) in 2017 or in 2018.

The inflation forecasts are updated the first Tuesday of every month (except for August) taking the latest available information into account. Next update: 4 July 2017.

Conversion coefficients

National consumer price index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.

Health index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.

National consumer price index (2018)

2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 105.84 106.11 106.31 106.69 106.72 106.73 106.86 106.78 106.56 106.84 106.98 106.95
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.50 1.38 1.33 1.52 1.64 1.62 1.59 1.55 1.52 1.53 1.52 1.52

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2018)

2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 106.24 106.46 106.62 107.00 107.03 107.02 107.17 107.10 106.90 107.16 107.31 107.34
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.52 1.33 1.23 1.46 1.53 1.50 1.48 1.44 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.44
Smoothed health index (2) 103.76 103.96 104.16 104.45 104.64 104.78 104.91 104.94 104.91 104.94 104.98 105.03
Reference index (3)

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2017)

2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 104.28 104.67 104.91 105.09 105.00 105.03 105.19 105.15 104.96 105.23 105.38 105.35
Growth rates (%) (1) 2.65 2.97 2.28 2.28 1.86 1.78 1.82 1.83 1.86 1.83 1.91 1.75

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2017)

2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 104.65 105.06 105.32 105.46 105.42 105.44 105.61 105.58 105.40 105.65 105.79 105.82
Growth rates (%) (1) 2.18 2.47 1.79 1.86 1.59 1.64 1.62 1.55 1.66 1.72 1.75 1.70
Smoothed health index (2) 102.05 102.34 102.67 103.02 103.21 103.30 103.37 103.40 103.40 103.45 103.49 103.55
Reference index (3)

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2016)

2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 101.59 101.65 102.57 102.75 103.08 103.19 103.31 103.26 103.04 103.34 103.41 103.54
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.74 1.39 2.24 2.04 2.20 2.16 2.28 2.16 1.87 1.81 1.77 2.03

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2016)

2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 102.42 102.53 103.47 103.53 103.77 103.74 103.93 103.97 103.68 103.86 103.97 104.05
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.80 1.63 2.72 2.38 2.58 2.38 2.53 2.32 1.80 1.55 1.65 1.78
Smoothed health index (2) 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.93 101.26 101.55 101.67 101.78 101.75 101.78 101.79 101.81
Reference index (3) 100.25 100.32 100.61 100.93

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2015)

2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 99.85 100.26 100.32 100.70 100.86 101.01 101.01 101.08 101.15 101.50 101.61 101.48
Growth rates (%) (1) -0.65 -0.40 -0.40 0.29 0.56 0.63 0.46 0.91 1.06 1.28 1.52 1.50

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2015)

2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 100.61 100.89 100.73 101.12 101.16 101.33 101.37 101.61 101.85 102.27 102.28 102.23
Growth rates (%) (1) 0.01 0.14 -0.06 0.68 0.87 0.99 0.91 1.49 1.79 1.98 1.99 1.82
Smoothed health index (2) 100.39 100.55 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66 100.66
Reference index (3) 98.82 98.96 99.06 99.22 99.34 99.51 99.74 99.96 100.11

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.
(3) The reference index is calculated from April 2015 onwards as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

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