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The FPB not only publishes the results of its research, but also a set of databases. These databases can contain either historical data or forecasts.
The inflation forecasts from March 2024 until the end of 2025 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until February 2024 from Statbel. These forecasts take into account the futures quotes of 26 February 2024. The oil price should amount to 81 dollars per barrel in 2024 and 76 dollars per barrel in 2025. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.09 dollar per euro in 2024 and 1.11 dollar per euro in 2025.
On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.0% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 3.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, compared to 4.33% in 2023 and 9.25% in 2022.
In October 2023, the pivotal index for social benefits and public sector wages was last reached. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the two following pivotal indices should be exceeded in 2024 and 2025.
Next update: 2 April 2024 at 2 p.m.
National consumer price index To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.
To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.
Health index To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.
To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau. (2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. (2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.