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This working paper analyses the performances of the Walloon innovation system in 2010. It concentrates on the six dimensions of the innovation system: knowledge development, human resources, R&D valorisation, innovation absorption capacity, entrepreneurial skills and financing capacity. These pillars are assessed by comparing the Walloon performances with those of European countries and regions with a similar industrial heritage. The analysis underlines the good performances of the mobilisation of financial resources in favour of R&D activities but also a potential problem in terms of human resources available for these activities. Maintaining a sufficient flow of competence by new science graduates and engineers and by the implementation of lifelong learning remains the key challenge in the years to come.
The 1996 Act establishes a preventive wage norm, based on the expected evolution of the labour costs in three reference countries, namely France, Germany and the Netherlands. It refers for those three countries to forecasts drawn up by the OECD. In its "Economic Outlook", the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) analyses in the chapter on the labour market, particularly since the 2007 edition, the monitoring of the “wage norm”. This analysis revealed the existence of different concepts of wage costs. This note aims to clarify and explain these concepts as well as the wage developments in these different meanings. It also seeks to raise questions related to these concepts
Short Term Update (STU) is the quarterly newsletter of the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau. It contains, in English, the main conclusions from the publications of the FPB, as well as information on new publications, together with an analysis of the most recent economic indicators.
In close cooperation with the Directorate-General of Statistics and Economic Information (DGSEI), the Federal Planning Bureau produces long-term population projections on a regular basis. First, demographic data from the National Register are consolidated by the DGSEI. Subsequently, based on those statistics for the years 2007, 2008 and 2009 which lead the observed population on 1 January 2010, the Federal Planning Bureau established new population projections. The latter replace the population projections 2007-2010 available on the websites of both institutions up to that moment. Since their completion in April 2011, the new population projections are employed in the FPB’s various economic projection activities and were as such integrated in the preparatory activities to the government formation.
More than before, the continuous increase in life expectancy and, especially, the recovery of the fertility rate among Belgian women - in particular in the Brussels and Flemish Regions - and the increased international immigration over the past years contribute to the future population growth. In 2060, the population in Belgium and in the Brussels Region (equaling 10.839.855 and 1.089.568 persons, respectively, on 1 January 2010) should amount to 13.515.000 and 1.475.200 persons, respectively. In addition, the population should be younger than anticipated before, yet the old age dependency ratio for Belgium should still increase considerably from 26 elderly persons per 100 active persons in 2010 to 42 in 2060 (compared to 45 in the previous projection).
Competition is a complex and hard-to-measure phenomenon. Nevertheless, it is a central concept in the economy and should be adjusted in the event that its course appears to be problematic. This study aims at grasping the intensity and the evolution of competition in Belgium in relation to other EU Member States and is based on eight benchmarks, each of which measures one specific feature of competition. Approximately half of those benchmarks have evolved favourably over the past decade. That was also the case for other member states, as a result of which Belgium’s relative position in terms of competition did not improve. For Belgium, two crucial benchmarks displayed an unfavourable evolution: prices, which strongly increased with regard to other Member States, and, in their wake, price/cost margins.
A better understanding of productivity evolution requires a specially adapted statistical tool that allows an industry-based analysis of the fundamental trends of the economy. Therefore, the Federal Planning Bureau is working with other European institutions on a project, financed by the European Union’s sixth framework programme for research, to develop the EUKLEMS database.
The database EUKLEMS contains the variables for analysing the evolution of productivity at the industry-level from 1970 to 2007, for all European countries, Australia, Japan, Korea and the US. The last release of the database was realised in November 2009, for 32 industries. The available variables concern production, value added, intermediary consumption, employment and the skill level of the labour force, capital with a distinction between capital linked to information and communication technologies (ICT) or not. The growth contributions of both the different production factors and total factor productivity are also available. An update was carried out in March 2011; it provides a 72-industry breakdown of variables published in November 2009, for most countries.
Short Term Update (STU) is the quarterly newsletter of the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau. It contains, in English, the main conclusions from the publications of the FPB, as well as information on new publications, together with an analysis of the most recent economic indicators.
This paper seeks to extend the PLANET model to allow for an endogenous influence of transport sector outcomes on the economy. To this end, we embed the PLANET data on freight and household transport for 2003 into a static CGE model of the Belgian economy. Households use transport for commuting and leisure transport, while production sectors use freight as an input. We allow for important feedback effects on generalized transport costs through congestion. To illustrate the model, we contrast the effects of a kilometre charge on freight only and a charge that targets household transport as well.
At the request of the Federal Public Service Environment, the Federal Planning Bureau has updated the energy and economic impact assessment for Belgium of the Climate-Energy Package as described in Working Paper 21-08. Working Paper 9-11 is based on the new economic and policy context and benefits from recent analyses conducted by the European Commission at EU level: an analysis of the stepping up from the 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions’ target to a 30% decrease in 2020, next to the Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050.
This Working Paper deals with the estimation of direct, inter-industry domestic and international R&D stocks for 25 Belgian industries over the period 1995-2007. Two categories of stocks are constructed to estimate potential rent spillovers and knowledge spillovers. Domestic inter-industry and foreign R&D stocks are weighted with Supply and Use tables and bilateral trade data to estimate rent spillovers (through intermediate consumption) and with international patent citations matrices to estimate knowledge spillovers.
In this Working Paper the growth in industry-level total factor productivity, i.e. the part of output growth that cannot be accounted for by growth in the production factors, is decomposed using Belgian firm-level data for the period 2000-2008. Decomposition permits to assess to what extent productivity growth in a given industry results from changes in firm-level productivity, from reallocation of market shares between existing firms or from firm entry and exit.
A consensus quickly emerged among national and international organizations, based on past experiences, that the financial crisis that erupted in 2008 would have a long-lasting impact on the level of output. An initial quantification of the potential output loss imputable to the crisis for Belgium was presented in WP 10-09. This Working Paper provides an update of this analysis and examines through the successive revisions of projections made by the Federal Planning Bureau how the perception of the crisis has evolved over the last two years and what its implications are for the medium run. The shortfall in potential output is now estimated to be less than 3 %, close to the area-wide loss estimated for the OECD-countries.
Short Term Update (STU) is the quarterly newsletter of the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau. It contains, in English, the main conclusions from the publications of the FPB, as well as information on new publications, together with an analysis of the most recent economic indicators.
In this Working Paper the impact of potential determinants of total factor productivity, i.e. the part of output that cannot be explained by the quantity of production factors, is estimated for Belgium using industry-level data for the period 1988-2007.
Offshoring is generally believed to be productivity-enhancing and this belief is underpinned by economic theory. This article contributes to the growing literature that tests empirically whether offshoring does indeed help to improve productivity. Estimating the impact of materials and business services offshoring on productivity growth with industry-level data for Belgium over the period 1995-2004, we investigate this issue separately for manufacturing and market services. The results show that there is no productivity effect of materials offshoring, while business services offshoring leads to productivity gains especially in manufacturing. In addition, we look at the possibility of rent spillovers from offshoring. Productivity gains from offshoring in one industry may feed through to other industries that purchase its output for intermediate use if, due to offshoring, the user value exceeds the price of the output. The lack of evidence of such rent spillovers from either materials or business services offshoring in the data leads us to conclude that firms manage to internalise all efficiency gains from offshoring.
One of the main sections in the current draft of the 2011-2012 Interprofessional Agreement concerns the welfare adjustment of social benefits. This draft results from a long process and fits in with the law concerning the Solidarity Pact between the Generations, which established a structural mechanism at the end of 2005, linking social benefits to welfare evolution. This working paper ‘Welfare adjustment of social benefits’ describes the first stage of that process: estimating the disposable financial means for the welfare adjustment of social benefits for the period 2011-2012, to which the Federal Planning Bureau contributed. In the employees scheme these means amount to 233.8 million in 2011 and to 497.9 million in 2012, of which the draft of the Interprofessional Agreement proposes to utilize merely 60%. Furthermore, this paper offers an overview of Belgian social policy by portraying its main turning points on the one hand and analysing the evolution of the average amounts of the main social benefits since 1980 on the other. The outcome is marked with contrast: over the period 1980-2009 the relative standard of living globally improved for pensioners, as opposed to the unemployed and the disabled.
In the national accounts labour inputs are collected by industry. Homogenising means transforming labour inputs by industry into labour inputs by product. This homogenisation is done using mathematical techniques. The paper compares the results for two wellknown techniques (product technology and industry technology) and discusses the effects of homogenisation on Belgian data for the years 2000 and 2005. Labour inputs are detailed by gender and education level. An additional distinction is made between employees and self-employed. The paper proposes a solution for the negatives problem that arises when applying the product technology model in the case of self-employed workers. It also assesses the plausibility of results by showing the effects of homogenising on wage costs and value added per head as well as on the ranking of industries by education level. The product and the industry technology model yield significantly different results, most particularly for the employment use of wholesale and retail trade. The results of the product technology model are judged to be most plausible
This study aims to analyse the effects of the decentralization level of collective wage bargaining on the wage level and the wage dispersion in Belgium. For this purpose, we have constructed a composite indicator of collective bargaining decentralization, based on variables that determine collective bargaining. Our results indicate the presence of a significant wage bonus and wider wage disparity in industries where collective bargaining is decentralized. Furthermore, we compare these results with those that use as an indicator of bargaining decentralization, the presence of collective agreements at company level, a commonly used indicator in the literature. We notice that this latter indicator seems to underestimate the degree of bargaining decentralization and thus also its effects on the wage structure. One can explains this result by the fact that in Belgium, besides firm collective agreements, the bargaining system also provides mechanisms that enable firms to distance themselves from collective agreements set at industry level.
Short Term Update (STU) is the quarterly newsletter of the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau. It contains, in English, the main conclusions from the publications of the FPB, as well as information on new publications, together with an analysis of the most recent economic indicators.
