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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (205)

2024

  • Description and use of the model EXPEDITION 06/02/2024

    In the framework of the election costing exercise the impact on the distribution of disposable income is measured for a number of measures proposed by political parties. Administrative micro-data are used for this exercise. This approach allows that the impact of the measures studied is reported at the level of individual or household characteristics. The policy measures whose impact on the distribution of disposable income is calculated are measures situated within the domain of social security and social assistance, supplemented by the regulations on family allowances, the contribution rules applied to these benefits and the rules on personal income tax. The tool used for these calculations is the microsimulation model EXPEDITION. The present paper describes the main features of the EXPEDITION model and illustrates its operation on the basis of two simulations.

    Working Papers - DC2024_WP_03  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Description and use of the PROMES model 06/02/2024

    As part of the election budgetary costings and impact assessment, the PROMES projection model is used to calculate the fiscal impulse of policy measures within the public health domain. This Working Paper outlines the characteristics, structure and operation of the model. We illustrate the simulation possibilities of the model using the base case and some alternative scenarios.

    Working Papers - DC2024_WP_01  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Minimum regulations, pension credits and the gender pension gap 30/01/2024

    This report shows that minimum regulations (minimum pensions and the minimumright per career year) and pension credits diminish pension inequality between men and women. If we assume that there are no minimum regulations, the pension gap would be 37% instead of 31%. If we assume that pension credits are not granted, the gap would be 43% instead of 31%. The pension credit part-time work with maintenance of pension rights, one specific type of pension credit, has a limited impact. Without this pension credit, the pension gap would increase with 0.4 percentage points.

    Reports - REP_12936  Publicatie(nl),

2023

  • Columns G and H of the supplementary table on pension schemes in social insurance (Table 29) 22/12/2023

    The supplementary table 29 of the Eurostat transmission program covers the statutory and occupational pension schemes in social insurance in Belgium. The FPB is charged with the compilation of columns G and H, which include accrued-to-date pension entitlements/liabilities in the statutory pension schemes, representing the present discounted value of accrued-to-date future old-age and survivor pensions of current beneficiaries and future beneficiaries who accumulated pension rights up to the valuation date.

    Reports - REP_T29_12928  Publication(en),

  • Poverty risks and income inequality up to 2070. Projections of the revised dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS 2.0 25/05/2023

    For the projection of social sustainability indicators, the Federal Planning Bureau uses the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, which has recently undergone a major revision. In this working paper we report a projection up to 2070 of poverty risks and income inequality among the elderly, pensioners and the population under 65 years, in a scenario with current pension policies and projected demographic and socio-economic evolutions.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 03-23  Publicatie(nl),

  • MIDAS 2.0. Revision of a dynamic microsimulation model 24/01/2023

    MIDAS, the dynamic microsimulation model that focuses on the social sustainability of pensions, has undergone a major revision in recent years to improve the validity of the projections. This Working Paper not only reports on this revision, but also describes some important new modules.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 02-23  Publicatie(nl), Annexen(nl),

2022

  • Pension agreement July 2022 – Evaluation of pension measures. Report at the demand of the limited Council of Ministers 18/11/2022

    This report (written at the request of the limited Council of Ministers) examines the budgetary impact as well as the consequences for the pensions of men and women of the pension agreement of July 19th, 2022. This agreement contains three measures :   

    • The agreement introduces a pension bonus for employees, the self-employed and civil servants
    • To have access to the minimum pension of employees, the self-employed and civil servants, it introduces an additional working condition
    • The agreement modifies the flexible minimum pension for employees in a way that should benefit female pensioners (the gender measure)

    Reports - REP_CEP15_12689  Publication / Publicatie(mix),

  • Primary work incapacity and disability of employees in Belgium: which explanatory factors? An analysis based on EU-SILC data 10/05/2022

    In the context of the significant increase in the number of beneficiaries of the health and disability insurance observed over the last 20 years in Belgium, we seek to develop an explanatory model for work incapacity and disability. On the basis of SILC data, we attempt to identify and prioritise the effects of different factors that may influence the probability of employees' transitions between socio-economic statutes, and in particular to and from primary incapacity and disability.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 04-22  Publication(fr),

2021

  • The evolution of the risk of poverty in Belgium among the population under 60 years of age 04/06/2021

    The first part of this Working Paper discusses the main trends in Belgium regarding the risk of poverty, compared to those in the EU27 and neighbouring countries. A second part shows that the increase in the risk of poverty in the population under 60 years can be partly attributed to an increase in the concentration of the lack of paid work in certain households. Also, social security benefits and social assistance benefits are less and less successful in raising jobless households above the poverty threshold.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 06-21  Publicatie(nl),

  • Regional child benefit reforms – An impact analysis with the microsimulation model EXPEDITION 18/05/2021

    This Working Paper puts the policy choices made in the regional child benefit reforms into perspective. Using the microsimulation model EXPEDITION, the expected direct effects of these reforms on child benefit expenditure and income distribution are mapped out. Special attention is paid to the effects on the simulated poverty risk of (families with) children, as this was a shared concern during the reforms in the different regions.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 04-21  Publicatie(nl),

  • 2020-2070 2020-2070 demographic outlook - Reference and alternative scenarios 31/03/2021

    This publication presents the main results of the demographic outlook for Belgium: population, households, births, deaths, international migration and internal migration.  To show the sensitivity of the results to some assumptions, three alternative scenarios are analysed: one linked to the health crisis (Covid-19), another modifying the long-term mortality assumption and a last one adjusting the assumption on international emigration.

    Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_POP2070_12389  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

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