Long-term transport demand outlook

The model is used to produce:

• long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium, both for passenger and freight transport;
• simulations of the effects of transport policy measures;
• cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures.

Description

The model consists of four main modules: MACRO, TRANSPORT, POLICY and WELFARE.

• The main aim of the MACRO module is to provide macroeconomic, demographic and socio-demographic projections at the level of the NUTS3 zones for Belgium (43 administrative districts).
• The level and composition of transport demand is provided by the TRANSPORT module according to the following steps:
  • the generation of transport demand in each Belgian NUTS3 zone;
  • the distribution of transport originating in each NUTS3 zone among the different NUTS3 zones;
  • the modal choice and choice of time of day for the journey.
• The POLICY module summarizes the transport policies that are analysed in the alternative scenarios.
• Finally, the WELFARE module computes the effects of transport policy measures on welfare.

The long-term transport projections in Belgium and the impact analyses of transport policies are realized in collaboration with the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport (www.mobilit.belgium.be). The projections are published every three years. The first publication dates back to 2009.