Federal Planning Bureau
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Future evolution of the car stock in Belgium: CASMO, the new satellite of PLANET [31/01/2019]
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces every three years long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. These projections are obtained with the national transport projection model PLANET. The current paper describes the new car stock model for Belgium, CASMO (Car Stock Model), which is linked to PLANET. When combined with the projections of transport activity levels in PLANET, these projections of the car stock model can be used to model the environmental impact of road transport. The paper discusses both methodological issues and the results that have been used in the most recent long-term projections of transport demand.
Outlook for transport demand in Belgium by 2040 [31/01/2019]
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces, every three years, long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise is the fourth of its kind so far. It aims to make a projection of no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing elements on which transport policy should be based to be identified and the impact of transport policy measures to be studied.
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The FPB has developed a model (PLANET) which models the evolution of transport demand. The construction of the model started in 2004. A first version became operational in 2008.
The model is used to produce:
- long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium, both for passenger and freight transport;
- simulations of the effects of transport policy measures;
- cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures.
Description
The model consists of four main modules: MACRO, TRANSPORT, POLICY and WELFARE.
- The main aim of the MACRO module is to provide macroeconomic, demographic and socio-demographic projections at the level of the NUTS3 zones for Belgium (43 administrative districts).
- The level and composition of transport demand is provided by the TRANSPORT module according to the following steps:
- the generation of transport demand in each Belgian NUTS3 zone;
- the distribution of transport originating in each NUTS3 zone among the different NUTS3 zones;
- the modal choice and choice of time of day for the journey.
- The POLICY module summarizes the transport policies that are analysed in the alternative scenarios.
- Finally, the WELFARE module computes the effects of transport policy measures on welfare.
The long-term transport projections in Belgium and the impact analyses of transport policies are realized in collaboration with the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport (www.mobilit.belgium.be). The projections are published every three years. The first publication dates back to 2009.
The last five press releases [More]
- Transport de personnes : sommet en vue ?
Personenvervoer: piek in zicht?31/01/2019 - On the road again . . . again . . .
On the road again . . . again . . .08/12/2015 - Destination 2030 : autoroute du chaos ou itinéraires alternatifs?
Bestemming 2030: chaos op de autowegen of alternatieve trajecten?17/09/2012 - Transport emissions – Historic evolution and outlook06/10/2009
- Perspectives à long terme de l’évolution des transports en Belgique: projection de référence
Langetermijnvooruitzichten voor transport in België: referentiescenario24/04/2009
The last five databases [More]
The last five publications [More]
- Perspectives de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2040
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2040 31/01/2019 - Future evolution of the car stock in Belgium: CASMO, the new satellite of PLANET 31/01/2019
- Vehicle stock modelling in long term projections - Survey of the literature 26/07/2017
- Perspectives de l’évolution de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2030
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2030 08/12/2015 - Fuel excise reform in Belgium - Long term effects on the environment, traffic and public finance 08/12/2015
