Long-term transport demand outlook

Parent

Transport

Contact

http://transport.plan.be

To what extent can supporting carpooling reduce road congestion? [28/01/2021]

A policy mix of “stick” measures (generalised distance based road charge) and “carrot” measures (supporting carpooling) could induce an increase in the occupation rate of cars in Belgium from 1.44 to 1.50. This relatively modest increase can be explained by the relatively small share of trips for which an increase in the occupation rate is a realistic option, and by the inconveniences linked to the organisation of carpooling. Nevertheless, this policy mix can induce a notable improvement in the traffic situation during the peak periods in the regions that currently suffer the most from congestion.

External costs of transport [29/06/2020]

This report quantifies the marginal external cost of transport (congestion costs and environmental costs) using the Federal Planning Bureau’s PLANET model and compares this to the transport taxes levied. These indicators were not covered in the ‘Projections of transport demand in Belgium by 2040’, published in 2019 by the Federal Planning Bureau and the FPS Mobility and Transport. In that sense this report supplements this publication.

Parent

Transport

Contact

http://transport.plan.be

The FPB has developed a model (PLANET) which models the evolution of transport demand. The construction of the model started in 2004. A first version became operational in 2008.

The model is used to produce:

long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium, both for passenger and freight transport;
simulations of the effects of transport policy measures;
cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures.

Description

The model consists of four main modules: MACRO, TRANSPORT, POLICY and WELFARE.

The main aim of the MACRO module is to provide macroeconomic, demographic and socio-demographic projections at the level of the NUTS3 zones for Belgium (43 administrative districts).
The level and composition of transport demand is provided by the TRANSPORT module according to the following steps:
- the generation of transport demand in each Belgian NUTS3 zone;
- the distribution of transport originating in each NUTS3 zone among the different NUTS3 zones;
- the modal choice and choice of time of day for the journey.
The POLICY module summarizes the transport policies that are analysed in the alternative scenarios.
Finally, the WELFARE module computes the effects of transport policy measures on welfare.

The long-term transport projections in Belgium and the impact analyses of transport policies are realized in collaboration with the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport (www.mobilit.belgium.be). The projections are published every three years. The first publication dates back to 2009.

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