Regional projections

Parent

Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses

Contact

http://hermreg.plan.be

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Parent

Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses

Contact

http://hermreg.plan.be

The HERMREG model was developed in cooperation with the research departments of the three Belgian Regions (BISA/IBSA, Statistiek Vlaanderen and IWEPS). This multiregional and multisectoral model is used to produce projections (over a period of six years) that are consistent with the national projections on the basis of HERMES.

Methods and instruments

Through the use of the HERMREG model, a number of key indicators of the national medium-term forecasts can be broken down for the three regions (among other things the added value by industry, employment (including cross-border workers and commuters) and the formation of households’ disposable income). The disaggregation is largely carried out using a top-down approach in which regional endogenous allocation keys are determined by a set of equations that are estimated on the basis of statistical methods. Two exceptions are labour supply and public finances of the regions and communities, which are already the outcome of a regional aggregation in the HERMES model.

In collaboration with the research departments of the three regions, a multiregional, bottom-up model is currently being developed. This model will be used for scenario analyses, more precisely to determine the impact of economic measures on each region.

Periodical publications

The regional forecasts are published each year in July.

Data

The statistical appendix of the latest regional forecasts is available under the heading Data.

Federal Planning Bureau

Themes