Federal Planning Bureau - Staff

Michel Saintrain

Michel Saintrain is economist and coordinator of the Public finances team. His research interests include, in particular, macro-fiscal issues, fiscal federalism and the sustainability of public finances.

Information
Publications authored by the FPB

Coordonnées

02/507.74.57

Teams

Public finances (Coordinator)
General Directorate

Twenty years of policy for the sustainability of Belgian public finances - From a strategy of pre-funding the costs of ageing to a policy of reforms of the socio-economic model
The Ageing fund, which was set up in 2001 as an instrument to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances, was abolished in 2016. Its abolition symbolises the transition from a strategy of pre-funding the budgetary cost of ageing, which dominated in the early 2000s, to a strategy based mainly on reforms to the socioeconomic model. The latter was initiated after the global financial crisis and has been firmly stepped up in recent years. This Planning Paper describes the economic and institutional factors behind the shift in sustainability policy, as well as the role of the various stakeholders: the governments of course, but also the High Council of Finance, the European authorities and the Federal Planning Bureau, which has produced long-term analyses and assessments over the past 25 years that have both reflected and helped to shape the pursued policy.
Planning paper 117 [28/02/2019]
Une approche macrobudgétaire stylisée pour simuler des trajectoires de finances publiques - Quelques enseignements pour la conduite de la politique budgétaire dans un référent exprimé en termes structurels
Een gestileerde macrobudgettaire benadering om trajecten voor de overheidsfinanciën te simuleren - Enkele lessen voor het voeren van het begrotingsbeleid in een referentiekader uitgedrukt in structurele termen
This study presents a compact model that allows a stylised, yet dynamic reasoning on the main macrofiscal aggregates that are relevant for setting budgetary paths compatible with the structural budget balance requirements of the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact. Some lessons on the conduct of fiscal policy in a reference framework in structural terms can be learned from the simulations provided for illustrative purposes. These simulations show in particular that – under certain conditions relating to the degree to which the budgetary adjustments have a permanent effect on the economic activity and thus on potential GDP – when the feedback effects of adjustments on the underlying macroeconomic environment are left out of consideration, this can be detrimental to the credibility of the considered structural paths.
Working Paper 05-17 [30/05/2017]
Effets retour nets pour la sécurité sociale des réductions du coût du travail décidées dans le cadre du tax shift sous l’hypothèse d’un relèvement des prélèvements fiscaux équivalent ex ante
Netto-terugverdieneffecten voor de sociale zekerheid van de arbeidskostenverminderingen zoals beslist in het kader van de tax shift in de veronderstelling van een ex ante equivalente verhoging van de fiscale heffingen
REP 11301 [28/07/2016]
La modélisation de l’impôt des personnes physiques dans les modèles macroéconomiques de court et moyen terme du BFP - Adaptation des modèles suite à la 6e réforme de l’État et au SEC2010
Within the framework of the sixth state reform, part of the personal income tax has been regionalised. What’s more, in ESA2010, certain tax expenditures which were partly recorded as negative revenue in ESA95 are now recorded as general government expenditure. These changes motivate a revision of the personal income tax model which is used both for the short and medium term projections made by the FPB and for variant analyses. The new model makes a distinction between the “prepayment” tax (payroll tax and advance payments) and the “enrolment” tax (which fixes the amounts due under regional and local additional levies). It provides a better link to the macroeconomy and explicitly takes into account the schedule of tax enrolment.
Working Paper 04-16 [24/03/2016]
Une méthode d’estimation des composantes cyclique et structurelle de la variation du taux d’endettement
This study presents a method for decomposing the annual variation of the debt ratio among the cyclical, structural and one-off components, thus making it possible to identify the structural conditions for a positive or negative snowball effect. The study shows that the cyclical component may be significant and, depending on the year, partially hide the structural component of the endogenous debt development. The method differs from the European Commission method for estimating a cyclically-adjusted debt. Compared with it, our method estimates a cyclical component that is better correlated with the level and variation of the output gap. Finally, the study discusses the advisability and feasibility of taking into account equilibrium inflation and interest rate in the approach.
Working Paper 08-15 [30/10/2015]
Perspectives économiques 2015-2020
Economische vooruitzichten 2015-2020
Economic outlook 2015-2020 [12/05/2015]
Perspectives économiques 2015-2020 - Version de mars 2015
Economische vooruitzichten 2015-2020 Versie van maart 2015
Economic outlook 2015-2020 0 [19/03/2015]
La 6e réforme de l'État : enjeux en termes de soutenabilité budgétaire
The state reform was elaborated at a moment when large fiscal consolidation measures were required to restore the long-term sustainability of Belgian public finances. The 2011 institutional agreement provided that the federated entities contribute, through the reform, to the fiscal consolidation. That contribution can be justified by the fact that the reform, by reducing the budgetary size of the federal level, decreases the federal level’s room for manoeuvre and its capacity to resolve on its own the sustainability issue. The magnitude of the contribution necessary to prevent the sustainability challenge from deteriorating is assessed and compared to the redistribution of the public deficit as organized by the reform. The assessment is made in a constant policy scenario and for different assumptions about the reform's life span. This study shows that the transfer of fiscal burden to the federated entities is, a priori, sufficient not to aggravate the sustainability problem considering the reduced size of the federal level’s budget. The federated entities have gained scale and powers but will have to contribute substantially to the efforts to restore fiscal sustainability.
Working Paper 01-14 [10/01/2014]
Contribution au 20e Congrès des Economistes belges de langue française - La 6e réforme de l'Etat : enjeux en termes de soutenabilité budgétaire
SP131121_01 [21/11/2013]
Perspectives économiques 2012-2017
Economische vooruitzichten 2012-2017
Economic outlook 2012-2017 [14/05/2012]
L’élasticité de l’impôt des personnes physiques - Approche macroéconomique prospective de l’élasticité nationale et de l’élasticité de l’impôt régionalisé
De elasticiteit van de personenbelasting - Prospectieve macro-economische benadering van de nationale elasticiteit en van de elasticiteit van een geregionaliseerde personenbelasting
This Working Paper discusses the elasticity and the progressivity of personal income tax. Both concepts deal with the same object but from a different perspective: elasticity has a temporal angle, whereas progressivity has a cross-sectional angle. Progressivity is here estimated based on the distribution statistics of taxable income and taxes. In addition, a method is introduced to assess the negative relationship between progressivity and income growth. In retrospect, that relationship contributes to explain the evolution of progressivity during the past decades. Looking ahead, it can be used to project – under an unchanged policies assumption – an evolution of elasticity different from the constant elasticity hypothesis, typical of short- and medium-term models, and from the unitary elasticity hypothesis, typical of long-term models. In this context, the impact of the larger share of pensions in the tax base on progressivity is taken into account. This Working Paper also discusses the regionalization of personal income tax approved within the framework of the Institutional Agreement for the sixth Reform of the State of 2011. More specifically, it demonstrates how the treatment of elements from the tax system with a fixed dimension (zero tax bracket, tax relief) and elements with a progressive dimension (income scale) influences the specific elasticity of the regional and the federal tax shares in personal income tax.
Working Paper 01-12 [15/03/2012]
Perspectives économiques 2011-2016
Economische vooruitzichten 2011-2016
Economic outlook 2011-2016 [12/05/2011]
Révision du fédéralisme belge et soutenabilité budgétaire : des implications à ne pas négliger
Herziening van het Belgisch federalisme en budgettaire houdbaarheid : belangrijke implicaties
Article 20110324 [24/03/2011]
Révision du fédéralisme budgétaire belge : questions de politique de soutenabilité budgétaire et de politique budgétaire dans le cycle
Herziening van het Belgisch budgettair federalisme: vragen omtrent de budgettaire houdbaarheid en omtrent budgettair beleid en economische cyclus
Working Paper 23-10 [24/11/2010]
Perspectives économiques 2010-2015
Economische vooruitzichten 2010-2015
Economic outlook 2010-2015 [19/05/2010]
Stratégie de soutenabilité budgétaire : évaluation critique et options envisageables
SP090629_01 [29/06/2009]
Perspectives économiques 2009-2014
Economische vooruitzichten 2009-2014
Economic outlook 2009-2014 [20/05/2009]
Le financement à long terme de la sécurité sociale et ses conséquences sur les finances du pouvoir fédéral
De financiering van de sociale zekerheid op lange termijn en haar gevolgen op de financiën van de federale overheid
Working Paper 24-08 [23/12/2008]
Perspectives économiques 2008-2013
Economische vooruitzichten 2008-2013
Economic outlook 2008-2013 [21/05/2008]
Budget surpluses to face population ageing: the reality and the prospects
The Working Paper looks at the strategy that has been implemented in Belgium since the beginning of the decade to finance the future increase in public spending due to population ageing. This strategy is laid down in the Stability Programmes and in the Ageing Act and is supported by a broad social and political consensus. It implies building up budget surpluses, which has not been done so far. The paper analyses the long-term effects of such a situation, for example as regards the trade-off between the various policies that could be implemented to face the budgetary challenges posed by ageing populations.
Article 2008030702 [07/03/2008]
Accumuler des surplus budgétaires pour faire face au vieillissement démographique en Belgique: réalités et perspectives
Begrotingsoverschotten opbouwen om de vergrijzing in België aan te pakken: realiteit en verkenningen
Working Paper 05-08 [29/02/2008]
Perspectives économiques 2007-2012
Economische vooruitzichten 2007-2012
Economic outlook 2007-2012 [11/05/2007]
Le compromis budgétaire européen de décembre 2005 / Impacts financiers pour la Belgique et les autres Etats membres
Het Europese begrotingscompromis van december 2005 / Financiële impact voor België en de andere lidstaten
Working Paper 03-06 [01/06/2006]
Perspectives économiques 2006-2011
Economische vooruitzichten 2006-2011
Economic outlook 2006-2011 [19/05/2006]
Perspectives économiques 2005-2010
Economische vooruitzichten 2005-2010
Economic outlook 2005-2010 [26/05/2005]
Coût budgétaire d’un chômeur de 1987 à 2002
Budgettaire kost van een werkloze 1987 - 2002
Planning Paper 96 [22/10/2004]
Modélisation trimestrielle des recettes de TVA dans Modtrim II
Modellering op kwartaalbasis van de BTW-ontvangsten in Modtrim II
Working Paper 14-04 [01/06/2004]
Perspectives économiques 2004-2009
Economische vooruitzichten 2004-2009
Economic outlook 2004-2009 [17/05/2004]
TIC, nouveaux standards transactionnels et fiscalité - Défis et perspectives
Working Paper 15-03 [27/09/2003]
Perspectives économiques 2003-2008
Economische vooruitzichten 2003-2008
Economic outlook 2003-2008 [26/05/2003]
Perspectives économiques 2002-2007
Economische vooruitzichten 2002-2007
Economic outlook 2002-2007 [06/06/2002]
Perspectives financières de la sécurité sociale 2000 - 2050 : Le vieillissement et la viabilité du système légal des pensions
Verkenning van de financiële evolutie van de sociale zekerheid 2000 - 2050 : De vergrijzing en de leefbaarheid van het wettelijk pensioensysteem
Planning Paper 91 [28/03/2002]
Perspectives économiques 2001-2006
Economische vooruitzichten 2001-2006
Economic Outlook 2001-2006 [15/05/2001]
La réforme de l’impôt des personnes physiques - Effets macroéconomiques, budgétaires, et sur la pression fiscale
Working Paper 01-01 [15/01/2001]
Perspectives économiques 2000-2005
Economische vooruitzichten 2000-2005
Economic Outlook 2000-2005 [15/05/2000]
Perspectives économiques 1999-2004
Economische vooruitzichten 1999-2004
Economic Outlook 1999-2004 [15/04/1999]
Effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires de l’application du taux de TVA réduit à certains services
Macro-economische en budgettaire effecten van een BTW-verlaging op bepaalde
Working Paper 06-98 [15/07/1998]
Economische en budgettaire effecten van een BTW-verlaging op nieuwe particuliere woningen
Working Paper 02-98 [15/04/1998]
Perspectives économiques 1998-2003
Economische vooruitzichten 1998-2003
Economic Outlook 1998-2003 [15/04/1998]
L’impôt des personnes physiques en belgique : une analyse macroéconomique
Working Paper 01-98 [15/04/1998]
Coût budgétaire d’un chômeur de 1983 à 1997
Budgettaire kost van een werkloze, van 1983 tot 1997
Planning Paper 79 [01/09/1997]
Perspectives économiques 1997-2001
Economische vooruitzichten 1997-2001
Economic Outlook 1997-2001 [15/04/1997]
Le développement des services de proximité - Balises pour un débat
Ontwikkeling van buurtdiensten - Bakens voor een debat
Buurtdiensten / Services de proximité [15/06/1996]
Réflexions sur un dispositif de développement des services de proximité
Planning Paper 77 [01/03/1996]
Variantes de réduction des cotisations sociales employeurs et de modalités de financement alternatives
Simulaties betreffende een vermindering van de werkgeversbijdragen voor de sociale zekerheid en vormen van alternatieve financiering
Planning Paper 75 [15/12/1995]
Le chèque-service obligatoire - Analyse macroéconomique d'une politique de réorientation, volontariste et subventionnée, de la consommation des ménages en faveur des services de proximité
Planning Paper 72 [02/01/1995]
Répercussions macroéconomiques et budgétaires d'un relèvement du taux du précompte mobilier sur intérêts à 15% dans le cadre d'une harmonisation européenne de la fiscalité de l'épargne à revenus fixes
Planning Paper 69 [01/06/1994]
Structure des prélèvements obligatoires et emploi - Aspects macroéconomiques des liens et des possibilités d'intervention
Planning Paper 71 [01/04/1994]

The Institution

Michel Saintrain

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