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Actualités

Tout ce qui fait ou fera l’actualité du BFP est présenté dans cette rubrique : qu’il s’agisse de ses dernières études, des communiqués de presse en relation avec celles-ci, d’articles ou encore l’annonce de ses prochaines publications, workshops, colloques.

Articles & Fact Sheets (88)

2013

  • Forecasting Belgian GDP in times of international crisis (Articles - 21/05/2013 )

    Forecasting Belgian GDP in times of international crisis

    The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the economic budget, i.e. the macroeconomic forecasts used to establish the federal government budget and perform budgetary control exercises. In order to ensure transparency, ex post evaluations of the quality of these forecasts are undertaken at regular time intervals. In the latest assessment, the one-year-ahead forecast errors for economic growth in 2009 and, to a lesser extent, in 2010 appeared as outliers. In this article we analyse the
    impact of world trade forecast errors on Belgian GDP forecasts.


  • Economic forecasts 2013-2018 (Articles - 21/05/2013 )

    Economic forecasts 2013-2018

    The expected recovery of economic activity in Europe and Belgium is part of a downwardly-revised growth scenario


2012

  • Compétitivité de la Belgique: défis et pistes de croissance (Articles - 27/11/2012 )

    Compétitivité de la Belgique: défis et pistes de croissance

    Le Bureau fédéral du Plan a rédigé, en mai 2012, un rapport intermédiaire sur la compétitivité de la Belgique en réponse à une demande du Premier Ministre dans le cadre de la première phase de l’élaboration du plan de relance. Ce rapport établissait le diagnostic de la compétitivité belge et devait permettre d’éclairer le gouvernement sur la situation de la Belgique relativement aux trois pays voisins. Les analyses se sont poursuivies en vue de mettre en évidence les déterminants de la compétitivité et par là, les principaux défis à relever pour l’améliorer. La publication actuelle, finalisée le 26 octobre 2012, synthétise ces analyses. Elle a été communiquée au Premier Ministre et au Ministre de l’économie comme appui technique à la deuxième phase du plan de relance dans le cadre de l’élaboration du budget 2013.


  • Perspectives économiques régionales 2012-2017 - Mise à jour de septembre 2012 (Articles - 27/09/2012 )

    Perspectives économiques régionales 2012-2017 - Mise à jour de septembre 2012

    En collaboration avec ses partenaires régionaux, le Bureau fédéral du Plan vient de réaliser une mise à jour des perspectives régionales 2012‐2017 parues en mai 2012. Cette mise à jour est basée sur de nouvelles perspectives nationales, elles‐mêmes fondées sur un environnement international caractérisé par une croissance économique qui marque le pas en 2012, une récession pour la zone euro ne pouvant être évitée.


2011

  • Twenty years of political commitment to sustainable development? (Articles - 16/12/2011 )

    Twenty years of political commitment to sustainable development?

    The Federal Report on Sustainable Development 2011 has been published to implement the Belgian Act of 5 May 1997 on the Coordination of Federal Sustainable Development Policy. It is the sixth sustainable development report and the first since the 2010 revision of the act. That revision stipulates that a report has to be drawn up during each five-year cycle of the act and that it consists of a status and evaluation part and a foresight part. The 2011 report presents the status and evaluation part. It examines three aspects: sustainable development trends for the past twenty years based on indicators, the Belgian federal sustainable development strategy for 1997-2010, and a series of policy measures selected from the Federal Plan for Sustainable Development


  • Révision du fédéralisme belge et soutenabilité budgétaire : des implications à ne pas négliger (Articles - 24/03/2011 )

    Révision du fédéralisme belge et soutenabilité budgétaire : des implications à ne pas négliger

    La crise a accru le risque d’insoutenabilité des finances publiques[1] en Belgique comme dans d’autres pays : le creusement du déficit structurel, la hausse de la dette et l’importance du coût du vieillissement démographique rendent indispensable une politique de restauration de la soutenabilité. Dans cette étude, le BFP examine les conséquences que pourrait avoir la réforme du fédéralisme budgétaire[2] belge actuellement en discussion sur le défi que représente la mise en place d’une telle politique par les autorités.


    [1]Insoutenabilité des finances publiques: situation dans laquelle, en l’absence d’assainissement budgétaire ou de réformes, le taux d’endettement public risque d’augmenter démesurément dans le futur.

    [2]Fédéralismebudgétaire : répartition entre les différents niveaux de pouvoir des compétences budgétaires, fiscales et des moyens financiers.


2010

  • A macro-econometric model for the economy of Lesotho (Articles - 03/11/2010 )

    A macro-econometric model for the economy of Lesotho

    The Federal Planning Bureau took part, in collaboration with the German institute DIW Berlin, in a technical assistance project financed by the European Commission aimed at developing different modelling approaches for the economy of Lesotho, a small country landlocked within the territory of South Africa. In the context of this project a macro-econometric model was elaborated. This Working Paper describes the main characteristics and the behavioural equations of this model and discusses a baseline simulation and an alternative scenario aimed at reducing up to 2012 the expected public deficit.


2009

  • The economic impact of the Services directive (Articles - 21/12/2009 )

    The economic impact of the Services directive

    By the end of 2009, all Member States of the EU must have transposed the Services directive into national law. This will constitute a major step forward in the completion of the legal framework for the internal market, but its economic impact is expected to be relatively small. It may lead to double-digit export growth for certain services branches. The small scale of these exports, however, gives rise to a weak impact on turnover, value added and employment.


  • Economic impacts of tax-shifting operations (Articles - 21/12/2009 )

    Economic impacts of tax-shifting operations

    This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects on the Belgian economy, for the period 2010-2020, of various forms of tax-shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and, simultaneously, decreasing other forms of taxation. All these variants have been simulated using the FPB’s medium-term model for Belgian  economy (HERMES).


  • Understanding wage determination in a multi-level bargaining system (Articles - 21/12/2009 )

    Understanding wage determination in a multi-level bargaining system

    This study attempts to measure the impact of industry-level wage bargaining on individual wages in Belgium. The results indicate that industry wage bargaining increases decided collectively at the industry level are, on average, fully passed on to actual wages. Moreover, industry wage bargaining seems to coexist along with a wage drift affected by company size, the economic performance of the industry and labour market tensions.


  • Measuring development progress beyond GDP (Articles - 06/10/2009 )

    Measuring development progress beyond GDP

    This special topic article describes three kinds of synthetic indicators complementing GDP: the Human Development Index, the Ecological Footprint with Biocapacity and, third, indicators based on Environmental Satellite Accounts. It shows that these indicators, among others, provide useful additional information on the human and environmental resource bases of development.


  • Sustainable development indicators, objectives and visions (Articles - 06/10/2009 )

    Sustainable development indicators, objectives and visions

    The publication of the fifth Federal Report on sustainable development implements the Belgian Act of 5 May 1997 on the Coordination of Federal Sustainable Development Policy. This Report contributes to the debate on the role and choice of indicators and objectives for measuring the development of a country and for the implementation of that strategic process. It studies a set of sustainable development indicators (SDI) that shows to what extent living conditions in Belgium are heading towards sustainable development strategic objectives (SDSO). The Report also studies these strategic objectives in the context of long term visions of society.


  • The Belgian environment industry (1995-2005) (Articles - 06/10/2009 )

    The Belgian environment industry (1995-2005)

    Recent years have seen a growing interest in the economic potential of environmental protection activities. The protection of the environment necessitates the development, production and marketing of a host of environmentally friendly products and production processes, the development of the skills needed to use them, environmental legislation, an administration to keep track of these developments, etc. All these activities are provided for by the environment industry. This study investigates the development of the environment industry in Belgium between 1995 and 2005.


  • Transport emissions – Historic evolution and outlook (Articles - 06/10/2009 )

    Transport emissions – Historic evolution and outlook

    Transport is a major source of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and plays an important role in their  evolution. Transport emissions are closely monitored and their future evolution is integrated into the FPB transport model, PLANET. The publication uses a decomposition analysis to compare the projected evolution of the emissions in the base scenario of the PLANET model to the base scenario of two other models and to put these in a historic perspective. The analysis focuses on Tank-to-Wheel emissions and is limited to three modes: road transport, railways and inland navigation.


  • Alternative assessment of Belgian competitiveness (Articles - 06/10/2009 )

    Alternative assessment of Belgian competitiveness

    This paper investigates the relationship between the relative positions, in terms of value added and relative prices, of Belgian manufacturing and market services in the European Union over 1970-2005. Relative prices are then broken down into relative unit costs of production factors. The analysis goes further by decomposing relative unit labour cost into relative hourly wages and relative productivity. Finally, relative productivity is broken down into relative capital deepening, relative labour
    composition effect and relative total factor productivity.


  • Impact of the financial crisis on Belgian potential output (Articles - 06/10/2009 )

    Impact of the financial crisis on Belgian potential output

    The concepts of potential growth and the output gap are important tools, respectively, for assessing the supply- side capacity of an economy and evaluating the state of the business cycle. They have also become an essential ingredient of the European fiscal surveillance process. In this Working Paper we compare, in the context of the financial crisis, revisions of potential output for Belgium made recently by the Federal Planning Bureau and international organizations. Those comparisons aim at highlighting the uncertainty associated with those revisions as well as having a better  understanding of some of the channels through which the crisis may reduce potential output.


  • Long term transport projections for Belgium (Articles - 02/03/2009 )

    Long term transport projections for Belgium

    An efficient transport system is essential for the economic development of Belgium. Today it is clear that transport not only contributes positively to welfare, but also causes negative effects. Witness to this are the many traffic jams on the roads and the problems caused by air pollution. By sketching an image of what the future might bring, this Planning Paper aims to present elements that can support the formulation of transport policies. The time horizon of the study is 2030.


  • System of Innovation in Wallonia (Articles - 02/03/2009 )

    System of Innovation in Wallonia

    This Working Paper evaluates the performance of the system of innovation in Wallonia for the most recent available period. Like the previous paper, this paper is based on the analysis of indicators reflecting the six main components of a system of innovation: knowledge development, human resources, valorisation of R&D, absorption capacity of innovation, entrepreneurship and innovation financing. A country's performance depends not only on the relative strength of each individual element but also on how effectively the components interact. These six components are evaluated from a European perspective: Wallonia is compared with European countries and European regions with similar socio-economic characteristics.


  • The impact of offshoring on employment in Belgium (Articles - 02/03/2009 )

    The impact of offshoring on employment in Belgium

    Worries about massive job losses have prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This paper examines the situation for Belgium. The offshoring intensity is computed as the share of imported intermediate inputs in output, based on a series of constant price supply- and-use tables for 1995-2003. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities, do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003, but this does not preclude a differential impact by skill-level.


  • Impact of the EU Energy and Climate Package on the Belgian energy system and economy (Articles - 02/03/2009 )

    Impact of the EU Energy and Climate Package on the Belgian energy system and economy

    In order to prepare for the negotiations on the EU Energy and Climate Package (E/C Package), the Federal Planning Bureau was asked by the Belgian federal and regional authorities to conduct a study on the impact of the European Commission's proposal of January 2008. In the course of the study, various scenarios and sensitivity analyses were run. Next to a baseline, two main alternative scenarios were scrutinized: the 20/20 and 30/20 target scenarios, standing for an EU reduction of, respectively, 20% and 30% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the year 2020 compared to the level of 1990, and a mandatory 20% EU-wide share for renewable energy sources (RES) in Gross Final Energy Demand in 2020. The report then includes an analysis of the impact of both scenarios on the Belgian energy system and economy as well as on GHG emissions.


  • Assessing adequacy of pensions (Articles - 02/03/2009 )

    Assessing adequacy of pensions

    In the context of the European-funded sixth framework project, "Adequacy of Old-Age Income Maintenance in the EU (AIM)", a dynamic microsimulation model has been developed for Belgium, Germany and Italy. This model, called MIDAS, simulates future developments in the adequacy of pensions in Belgium, Italy and Germany, following wherever possible the projections and assumptions of the Ageing Working Group.


2008

  • Estimating private health expenditures within a dynamic consumption allocation model (Articles - 07/03/2008 )

    Estimating private health expenditures within a dynamic consumption allocation model

     In the health economics literature, it is customary to model total (private and public) aggregate health expenditures as a function of income, demographic ageing and a host of other variables. Private health expenditures are rarely modelled separately and if they are, the models are often based on individual data and limited to specific medical services such as physician visits. In this paper we specify a model of aggregate private health expenditures, embedded in a generalisation of Deaton & Muellbauer’s Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The main advantage of specifying a complete demand system is that all household consumption decisions, including the ones about the use of health care services, are subject to the same budget restriction.


  • Budget surpluses to face population ageing: the reality and the prospects (Articles - 07/03/2008 )

    Budget surpluses to face population ageing: the reality and the prospects

    The Working Paper looks at the strategy that has been implemented in Belgium since the beginning of the decade to finance the future increase in public spending due to population ageing. This strategy is laid down in the Stability Programmes and in the Ageing Act and is supported by a broad social and political consensus. It implies building up budget surpluses, which has not been done so far. The paper analyses the long-term effects of such a situation, for example as regards the trade-off between the various policies that could be implemented to face the budgetary challenges posed by ageing populations.


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