Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.
Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts 02/04/2019
Analysis of concrete measures submitted by the Climate Coalition 28/03/2019 - Publications
This report was drafted to meet the request of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumer Affairs to analyse the potential impact on the greenhouse gas emission reduction of a number of concrete measures submitted by the Climate Coalition. The report is mainly based on existing studies carried out by the Federal Planning Bureau.
Medium-term projection for Belgium of the at-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion indicators based on EU-SILC 11/03/2019 - Publications
The Federal Planning Bureau has developed within the Nowcasting project a dynamic microsimulation model for nowcasting and medium-term forecasts (currently up to 2020) of indicators of poverty and social exclusion. Key messages of this project are that nowcasting and medium-term forecasting are now possible using a fully dynamic microsimulation model. The provisional results of the model suggest that the overall poverty risk would remain stable, but that of the 65+ subpopulation would decrease over time, while that of the younger population would show a small increase. Furthermore, the increase of overall ine-quality would come to a halt and the level of inequality would become more stable. Finally, the very low work intensity rate would continue its decrease, driven by the continuing increase of the employment rate among the working-age population.
Twenty years of policy for the sustainability of Belgian public finances - From a strategy of pre-funding the costs of ageing to a policy of reforms of the socio-economic model 28/02/2019 - Publications
The abolition of the Ageing fund in 2016 symbolises the transition from a strategy of pre-funding the budgetary cost of ageing to a strategy based on reforms to the socioeconomic model. This Planning Paper describes the economic and institutional factors behind the shift in fiscal sustainability policy, as well as the role of the various stakeholders. It also reviews the long-term projections produced by the Federal Planning Bureau over the past 25 years.
Future evolution of the car stock in Belgium: CASMO, the new satellite of PLANET 31/01/2019 - Publications
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces every three years long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. These projections are obtained with the national transport projection model PLANET. The current paper describes the new car stock model for Belgium, CASMO (Car Stock Model), which is linked to PLANET. When combined with the projections of transport activity levels in PLANET, these projections of the car stock model can be used to model the environmental impact of road transport. The paper discusses both methodological issues and the results that have been used in the most recent long-term projections of transport demand.
Outlook for transport demand in Belgium by 2040 31/01/2019 - Publications
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces, every three years, long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise is the fourth of its kind so far. It aims to make a projection of no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing elements on which transport policy should be based to be identified and the impact of transport policy measures to be studied.
Macro-fiscal impact of an increase in minimal social benefits 11/01/2019 - Publications
This report presents the medium-term macroeconomic and macrofiscal impact of an increase in the federal minimal social benefits to the poverty threshold. It was drawn up at the request of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumer Affairs.
Value chain integration of export-oriented and domestic market manufacturing firms - An analysis based on a heterogeneous input-output table for Belgium 26/09/2018 - Publications
This working paper presents a breakdown of manufacturing industries in the 2010 Belgian input-output tables into export-oriented and domestic market firms. Analyses based on these tables show that export-oriented manufacturers generate a substantial amount of value added in other Belgian firms through their exports. Hence, in terms of policy, export promotion must take into account the value chain for producing exports.
What are the consequences of the AWG 2018 projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy? Simulations for three EU member states 19/07/2018 - Publications
In preparation of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report by the European Commission and the Social Protection Committee, teams from Belgium, Sweden and Italy use their microsimulation models to simulate the possible developments of pension adequacy while taking into account the set of economic and demographic projections developed by the AWG. The results of this exercise complement the AWG simulations of pension expenditures in a context of demographic. The results described in detail in this report were summarised in section 5.1.2. of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report
Economic impact of professional services reform in Belgium - A DSGE simulation 05/07/2018 - Publications
This working paper analyses the economic impact of a regulated professional services reform in Belgium through simulations based on the European Commission’s DSGE model QUEST III R&D
A Multiregional Population Projection Model at the EU level 08/06/2018 - Publications
This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.
Non-take-up of employers' social security contributions cuts: the case of the “first recruitments” measure 02/05/2018 - Publications
The ‘first recruitments’ measure aims at supporting job creation in new and small firms through a reduction in employers' social security contributions. However, part of the eligible employers does not claim this reduction. Using administrative data from the National Social Security Office, we seek to quantify this phenomenon, which may bias the intended effect of the measure, and to identify profiles of non-take-up.
2018-2023 Budgetary Outlook for the federated entities 24/04/2018 - Publications
This report presents a brief disaggregation of the budget balance of the sub-sector “communities and regions” that was published in the March 2018 “2018-2023 Economic Outlook”. The budget balances of the Flemish Community, the French-speaking Community, the Walloon Region and the Brussels-Capital Region are presented.