Short Term Update 04-13 : Special Topic - The sixth state reform in Belgium: issues with regard to the sustainability of public finances [ Short Term Update 04-13 - 03/12/2013]

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In de Planning Papers werden afgeronde studies over thema's van ruimer belang gepresenteerd. De reeks is gesloten sinds 2022.
De Short Term Update (STU) was een driemaandelijkse nieuwsbrief met een actueel overzicht van de Belgische economie en de lopende studies van het FPB.  De reeks is gesloten sinds 2015.

Headlines Belgian Economy

The FPB’s latest short-term forecast dates from September (see STU 3-13). We projected, conditional on our traditional assumption of unchanged budgetary policy, a GDP growth rate of 0.1% in 2013 and 1.1% in 2014 for the Belgian economy. This forecast was established against the background of euro area GDP growth amounting to -0.5% and 1% for those years respectively.

This September forecast seems to still be valid for the time being. The Belgian and euro area GDP flash estimates for 2013Q3 (0.3% qoq and 0.1% qoq respectively) and recent forecasts by the European Commission (October) and the OECD (November) are in line with a scenario of a modest recovery for the euro area and for Belgium. Nevertheless, this scenario is still subject to similar economic, political and financial risks.

The FPB has not yet estimated the economic impact of the Belgian government’s budgetary decisions taken in October (which are summarised in the “policy measures” section on page 21), but expects it to be quite small. The government’s effort to reduce its structural deficit-to-GDP ratio by 1.2% of potential GDP in 2014 (according to its draft budgetary plan submitted to the European Commission) focuses on measures whose impact on economic activity should be limited.

The FPB’s next short-term forecast will be published in February 2014.

STU 4-13 was finalised on 3 December 2013.