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This paper presents the models developed at the FPB to project public spending on curative care and long-term care in the medium and long term. The variables explaining curative care spending are income, the age composition of the population, the unemployment rate and technological and medical progress. This variable is approximated using two indicators, the number of new drug approvals (Farmanet data) and the approvals for non-pharmaceutical products (Food and Drug Administration data). With the exception of the latter, all drivers mentioned above increase the cost of curative care. As for long-term care spending, it is explained by income, the proportion of older people in the population and their life expectancy. Long-term care spending is positively impacted by income and ageing. Yet, due to the increase in life expectancy, the impact of ageing shifts gradually towards the oldest age group.
Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses > Medium-term projections and macrosectoral analyses
Social protection, demography and prospective studies > Financial developments for social protection
Public Economics > National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > Government Expenditures and Health [H51]
Health, Education, and Welfare > Health > General [I10]