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Publications

Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

STU 02-01 : Special Topic - Wage cost reduction in the Belgian labour market [ Short Term Update 02-01 - ]

Belgian GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 3.9% in 2000 to 2.8% this year and to be less export-led than last year. Even when taking into account a recovery in world trade during the last few months of 2001, growth in Belgian exports should ease back significantly on average this year, due to the deceleration in world economic growth and the appreciation of the euro. Domestic demand should, however, remain robust in 2001 (2.5%). Private consumption growth (2.5%) should almost equal the average for the last three years, while business investment should do even better. Employment growth should remain strong this year (1.1%), although lower than the exceptional figure seen last year (1.8%). The decrease in inflation seems to be slower than was expected earlier. The general government financing capacity should move from 0% in 2000 to 0.7% of GDP in 2001.

The medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards a GDP growth rate of 2.7% during the period from 2002 to 2006.This favourable development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand. The role of exports should be more limited. Private consumption should be more dynamic during the period covered by the forecast than it was during the 1996-2000 period thanks to a favourable development in households’ disposable income (stimulated in particular by an important fiscal reform). Gross fixed capital formation should also increase rapidly, reflecting the increase in business investment. Export growth, on the other hand, should not exceed 5.9% on average: the loss in export market share should be confirmed and the contribution to GDP growth from net exports is expected to decline.

The inflation rate should be kept below 2% in the medium term. Wage increases compatible with productivity gains, cuts in social security contributions and the extension of production capacity are the main domestic factors behind this more moderate inflation.

Annual employment growth should be around 1% between 2002 and 2006, but a large proportion of this expansion should be absorbed by an increase in the labour force. The unemployment rate in the broad sense (including long-term older unemployed) should decline more modestly (from 12.9% of the labour force in 2000 to 11.3% in 2006) than the official unemployment rate (from 10% to 7.5%).

Assuming an unchanged policy, but taking into account the measures decided upon recently, the financing capacity of the public administrations should improve up to the equivalent of 1.3% of GDP in 2006. Given the ambitious budgetary targets of Belgium’s stability program for 2001-2005, this means that the remaining budgetary margins should be, at most, very limited.

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Séries clôturées

Les Planning Papers présentaient des études finalisées sur des thèmes de plus large intérêt. La série est clôturée depuis 2022. 
Le Short Term Update (STU) était un bulletin trimestriel donnant un aperçu actualisé de l’économie belge et des études en cours du BFP.  La série est clôturée depuis 2015.

In an effort to promote the labour intensity of economic growth and to reduce the number in long-term unemployment and hence to increase the employment rate, the Belgian federal government has embarked on a strategy of labour cost reduction since the early 1990s, either by reducing the level of social security contributions of employers in general or by stimulating low-wage employment and/or subsidizing the hiring of specific categories of labour in particular. A new development in labour market policy is to merge a number of existing wage cost reduction measures into a single ‘structural measure’. The main effect is that white-collar and high-wage market sectors will gradually enjoy larger cost reductions, shifting labour demand away from low-wage and blue-collar sectors. In response to these developments in labour market policy, the FPB has upgraded HERMES, its macroeconomic model for medium-term forecasts and policy assessment, allowing the analysis of both general and selective labour market policies.

The structural measure

The government has been establishing the Structural measure (Structurele maatregel/Mesure structurelle) since 1999, which streamlines and expands separate schemes for wage cost reduction previously mainly aimed at low-wage workers in the profit sector (Lageloon-maatregel/ Mesure bas salaires) and/or blue-collar workers in the profit sector (Maribel). A methodology that combines the conditions for wage cost reductions spelled out in legislation, labour market data provided by the RSZ/ONSS and projections of sectoral wages and employment enables the FPB to compute accurate medium- term projections of the structural reduction by sector and wage category and its impact on employment.

By its nature, the structural measure favours low-wage, part-time employment in the profit sector and discriminates against high-wage workers, full-time employment and the non-profit sector. Interestingly, the differential between blue-collar workers (arbeiders/ouvriers) - who used to benefit more from reductions in social security contributions prior to the structural measure - and white-collar workers (bedienden/employés) will be reduced by the time the structural measure is implemented fully in 2004. As opposed to the earlier social contribution reduction programmes, the structural measure covers the non-profit market sector, mainly health care, as well, but at less generous terms than in the profit sector. [More in the publication...]

STU 01-02 was finalised on May 11th 2001.

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