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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (54)

2012

2011

  • A computable general equilibrium for Belgium with a special focus on transport policies 25/08/2011

    This paper seeks to extend the PLANET model to allow for an endogenous influence of transport sector outcomes on the economy. To this end, we embed the PLANET data on freight and household transport for 2003 into a static CGE model of the Belgian economy. Households use transport for commuting and leisure transport, while production sectors use freight as an input. We allow for important feedback effects on generalized transport costs through congestion. To illustrate the model, we contrast the effects of a kilometre charge on freight only and a charge that targets household transport as well.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 12-11  Publication(en),

  • Analyse de politiques de transport : rapprochement des accises sur les carburants et Eurovignette III 27/01/2011

    This study aims to analyse the impact of two transport pricing policies using the PLANET model. The transport policies are (1) a harmonisation of excise duties on petrol and diesel and (2) road pricing for heavy goods vehicles in accordance with the EU proposal for the Eurovignette III directive. The effects studied concern the consequences for the transport activity for persons and goods, the environmental impact and the impact on social welfare. For both policy types, the impact on the public budget is neutralized through general taxation or labour taxation.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 02-11  Publication(fr),

2010

  • Electric cars: Back to the future? 21/05/2010

    The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the development of the EV in a couple of selected energy scenarios, to address the influence climate policy and the presence of nuclear energy can have on this development and to estimate the impact of different EV penetration rates on electricity demand. Throughout the paper, it becomes clear that, in the absence of specific, dedicated EV public programmes, policies and measures aimed at curbing climate change spark off the penetration of EVs, especially on a longer time horizon (up to 2030): with post 2012 climate policy in place, the pure EV penetration in 2020 attains approximately 2% of the road vehicle fleet while in 2030, around 5% of the road vehicle fleet will be electrically propelled. In the time span up to 2020, the electricity consumption of the EVs is rather small: it ranges between 0.4 and 0.5 TWh. It isn’t until 2025 and 2030 that EVs start to have a more visible impact on electricity consumption, stretching out between 1.2 and 1.4 TWh which represents approximately 1% of the total final electricity demand in 2030. Nuclear energy can then be a modest incentive for EVs through, assuming perfect market functioning, a decrease in electricity prices, hence triggering a slightly higher EV penetration.

    This paper assumes that no specific dedicated policies are in place to stimulate the upsurge of EVs. If policy makers decide they want to support and even intensify the expansion of EVs considering their positive impact on oil independency, climate change, transport efficiency and possibly job retention/creation, further policy measures (beyond climate policy) embedded in a long term national master plan are of utmost importance.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 13-10  Publication(en),

  • The PLANET model - Methodological Report: The Car Stock Module 25/02/2010

    The vehicle stock module calculates the size and composition of the car stock. Its output is a full description of the car stock in every year, by vehicle type, age and (emission) technology of the vehicle. The vehicle stock is represented in the detail needed to compute transport emissions. The integration of the car stock module in PLANET will allow to better capture the impact of changes in fixed and variable taxes levied on cars. Among these impacts, the effect on the environment is of particular interest.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 02-10  Publication(en),

2009

  • Les comptes satellites des transports et les externalités 20/12/2009

    The transport satellite accounts (TSA) show the total transport expenditure in Belgium in 2000. The TSA are a complement to the information in the national accounts for transport activities, which are only partially described in this general framework. Transport generates externalities that are not taken into account in the total expenditure as defined in the satellite accounts. The study assesses the external costs of various transport modes and contains a joint analysis of the externalities and of the main TSA results for 2000. The analysis reveals the extent of the transport costs and externalities, especially of road transport. The estimated external costs concern air pollution, climate change, accidents, noise and congestion.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 15-09  Publication(fr),

  • Analyse de l’impact de différents schémas théoriques d’une taxe routière en Belgique 18/12/2009

    New measures need to be taken in order to reduce the negative impact of transport. This study presents various theoretical schemes for the introduction of road pricing in Belgium and analyses their impact on transport, the environment and welfare by using the PLANET model. The internalisation of external costs, while difficult to implement in the short term, improves welfare significantly. In order to improve welfare, a road tax system aimed at lorries exclusively should allow for a suitable differentiation according to the actual periods of transport. Extending the road pricing system so as to include vans has a positive effect on welfare and also avoids shifting part of the road freight to vans. Extending road pricing to all road motor vehicles (lorries, vans and individual cars) significantly improves welfare, road congestion and the average speed on the road network. On the other hand, it induces a very marked surge in the demand for rail and other public transport (buses, trams and metros), which would almost certainly exceed the capacity of existing infrastructures. Potential management problems of rail and other public transport such as buses, trams and metros could be avoided if the generalisation of the road pricing system to all road motor vehicles were combined with the withdrawal of subsidies for public transport.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 14-09  Publication(fr),

  • Transport emissions – Historic evolution and outlook 06/10/2009

    Transport is a major source of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and plays an important role in their  evolution. Transport emissions are closely monitored and their future evolution is integrated into the FPB transport model, PLANET. The publication uses a decomposition analysis to compare the projected evolution of the emissions in the base scenario of the PLANET model to the base scenario of two other models and to put these in a historic perspective. The analysis focuses on Tank-to-Wheel emissions and is limited to three modes: road transport, railways and inland navigation.

    Articles - Article 2009100604  

2008

  • Analyse des dépenses et recettes publiques de transport 26/11/2008

    This study presents some of the results of the transport satellite accounts (TSA) published recently (Planning Paper 106) in order to provide a first estimation of expenditure and revenue of the public administrations linked to transport in 1995 and 2000. From this information, the possibility to estimate the net public transfers towards the different mode of transport modes is analysed.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 20-08  Publication(fr),

  • The PLANET Model: Methodological Report 16/05/2008

    The PLANET model is a model of the Belgian Federal PLANning Bureau that models the relationship between the Economy and Transport. Its aim is to produce: (i) medium- and long-term projections of transport demand in Belg ium, both for passenger and freight transport; (ii) simulations of the effects of transport policy measures; (iii) cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. The methodological report describes the main features of the PLANET model.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 10-08  Publication(en),

2006

  • Network industry reform in Belgium: the macroeconomic impact 06/10/2006

    Two Working Papers on the macroeconomic impact of network industry reform have been published. The first is a detailed report in Dutch, the second a summary paper in English. The analysis builds on a simulation by FPB’s macroeconometric model HERMES, and a simulation by IMF’s general equilibrium model GEM. Although both simulations were based on the same exogenous input, they gave significantly different outcomes. This sheds light on the applicability of different modelling approaches to an issue at hand.

    Articles - Working Paper 08-06 / 10-06  

  • Network Industry Reform in Belgium: Macroeconometric versus General-Equilibrium Analyses 30/09/2006

    In network industries the market reform that is being pursued by national and supranational authorities should lead to an improvement of efficiency, which spills over into a beneficial macroeconomic impact. This paper presents two alternative simulations of the potential impact in Belgium. These simulations give very different outcomes, but are still complementary. A macroeconometric approach seems to be more realistic in the short and mid term because it has been built up from observed behavioural relationships. A general-equilibrium approach gives rise to drawing some lessons about the conditions that make the impact more pronounced in the long term.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 10-06  Publication(en),

2005

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