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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (277)

2017

  • Accuracy assessment of the FPB short-term forecasts - An update 29/09/2017

    The Federal Planning Bureau is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the macroeconomic forecasts that are used to set up the federal government budget. This working paper presents an update of the ex post assessment of the quality of these forecasts. Compared to the previous working paper devoted to this topic, the sample has been extended by six additional years and the number of evaluated variables has been increased, in particular with series at current prices. Moreover, this paper also examines to what extent the observed forecast errors are due to errors made on exogenous assumptions related to the international environment.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 12-17  Publication(en), Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl), Slideshow(nl), Avis du Comité scientifique - Advies van het Wetenschappelijk Comité(mix),

  • Public Investment in Belgium - Current State and Economic Impact 26/01/2017

    Belgian government investment, and specifically the part spent on infrastructure, is relatively low both in historical terms and compared to neighbouring countries. A simulation with the European Commission’s Quest III model suggests that increasing government investment permanently by 0.5% of GDP leads to a growth in GDP, private consumption and private investment. The impact of alternative financing mechanisms is compared. Finally, a budget neutral shift of investment in favour of infrastructure is found to yield significant benefits in terms of GDP and its main components already in the medium run.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 01-17  Publication(en), Slideshow(en),

2016

  • Croissance potentielle et output gap : une analyse rétrospective des estimations réalisées par le BFP et la CE 31/03/2016

    In the framework of the publication of its Economic Outlook for Belgium, the Federal Planning Bureau has estimated the potential growth and the output gap since 2003. This report presents a retrospective analysis of the properties of the short-term and long-term revisions of the potential growth and the output gap. A comparison with the results based on the EC estimations is also provided. This work falls within the legal tasks of the Institute of National Accounts in the field of forecast assessment.

    Reports - OPREP201604  Publication(fr),

2015

  • Economic budget - Economic forecasts (September) 09/09/2015

    In accordance with the Law of 21 December 1994, the National Accounts Institute has transmitted the figures of the economic budget to the Minister for Economy. These macroeconomic forecasts are produced within the framework of the preparation of the federal budget for 2016. These forecasts do not take into account the government measures announced in July in the context of the preparation of the federal budget and the tax shift. This also holds for the VAT rate hike on electricity for domestic use from September onwards as this measure is part of a global agreement, the modalities of which were not available in time for integration into these forecasts.

    Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (Sept)  

  • Potential output growth in Belgium since the crisis - Lower and more uncertain 23/06/2015

    The uncertainty surrounding the estimates of potential output has risen in the euro area countries since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Moreover, potential growth in the euro area has fallen since 2009. In this working paper we examine both phenomena for Belgium based on potential GDP estimates produced by the Federal Planning Bureau. We also analyse the evolution of the three main underlying determinants of potential growth, namely the contribution of labour, capital and total factor productivity.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 04-15  Publication(en),

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