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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Reports - REP 11379 (mix),
Reports - REP 11301 (mix),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016-2017 (June)
Within the framework of the sixth state reform, part of the personal income tax has been regionalised. What’s more, in ESA2010, certain tax expenditures which were partly recorded as negative revenue in ESA95 are now recorded as general government expenditure. These changes motivate a revision of the personal income tax model which is used both for the short and medium term projections made by the FPB and for variant analyses. The new model makes a distinction between the "prepayment" tax (payroll tax and advance payments) and the "enrolment" tax (which fixes the amounts due under regional and local additional levies). It provides a better link to the macroeconomy and explicitly takes into account the schedule of tax enrolment.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-16 (fr),
This report is an input to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and of the new National Reform Programme. It presents the key assumptions and the main results of the preliminary version of the “Economic Outlook 2016-2021”. The final version of the outlook will be published in May 2016.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016-2021 - March 2016 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016 (fr), (nl),
Reports - OPREP201605 (mix), (mix),
Improving the functioning of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is back on the agenda, especially as the decline in public investment resulting from fiscal adjustment processes implemented according to the current Pact rules is seen as a brake on future economic growth. When discussions about a Pact revision in 2005 were under way, several major authors (for instance: Blanchard and Giavazzi in CEPR February 2004) suggested reverting to a golden rule under which the deficit would exclude investment expenditure, net of amortization. The Pact was revised in 2005 but this proposal was not adopted. This paper presents a new attempt to integrate a proper accounting of investment into the Pact by modifying the formula of the MTO (Medium Term Objective for the budget balance), without losing the other dimensions of the present formula: the partial provisioning of the so-called cost of ageing and the accelerated debt reduction for highly indebted countries. In this way, the public investment programme becomes a centrepiece of the structural policy of a government and not the first instrument of a cyclical policy.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-16 (en),
Reports - REP_SHIFT_1501 (fr), (nl),
This study presents a method for decomposing the annual variation of the debt ratio among the cyclical, structural and one-off components, thus making it possible to identify the structural conditions for a positive or negative snowball effect. The study shows that the cyclical component may be significant and, depending on the year, partially hide the structural component of the endogenous debt development. The method differs from the European Commission method for estimating a cyclically-adjusted debt. Compared with it, our method estimates a cyclical component that is better correlated with the level and variation of the output gap. Finally, the study discusses the advisability and feasibility of taking into account equilibrium inflation and interest rate in the approach.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-15 (fr),
This report presents the results of an impact assessment of an increase in the social integration allowance (assistance scheme). The study which was commissioned by the State Secretary responsible for poverty reduction consists of two parts, on the one hand, an assessment of the macroeconomic and budgetary effects, including the possible return effects, of the increase and, on the other hand, an estimate of its impact on the poverty risk.
Reports - OPREP201512 (mix), (mix),
In accordance with the Law of 21 December 1994, the National Accounts Institute has transmitted the figures of the economic budget to the Minister for Economy. These macroeconomic forecasts are produced within the framework of the preparation of the federal budget for 2016. These forecasts do not take into account the government measures announced in July in the context of the preparation of the federal budget and the tax shift. This also holds for the VAT rate hike on electricity for domestic use from September onwards as this measure is part of a global agreement, the modalities of which were not available in time for integration into these forecasts.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (Sept)
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (June)
Speeches & presentations - SP20150512_01 (mix),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2020 (fr), (nl), (fr), (nl), (fr), (fr), (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl), (nl), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2020 0 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015 (fr), (nl),
This paper presents the models developed at the FPB to project public spending on curative care and long-term care in the medium and long term. The variables explaining curative care spending are income, the age composition of the population, the unemployment rate and technological and medical progress. This variable is approximated using two indicators, the number of new drug approvals (Farmanet data) and the approvals for non-pharmaceutical products (Food and Drug Administration data). With the exception of the latter, all drivers mentioned above increase the cost of curative care. As for long-term care spending, it is explained by income, the proportion of older people in the population and their life expectancy. Long-term care spending is positively impacted by income and ageing. Yet, due to the increase in life expectancy, the impact of ageing shifts gradually towards the oldest age group.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-14 (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2014-2015 (fr), (nl),
The present document is the fourth biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.
This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on June 30, 2014).
Reports - OPREP201403 (fr), (nl),
Compilation of the different presentations held at the presentation of the “Medium-term economic outlook 2014-2019” at the Central Economic Council on 25 June 2014.
Speeches & presentations - SP140625_01 (mix),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2014-2019 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2014-2015 (June)
This study was commissioned by the Central Economic Council (CEC), and more particularly by the Special Advisory Commission ‘Construction’. It presents the sectoral results of a report that was produced in 2011 by the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau. The federal government had asked both institutions to conduct a comprehensive study of a fiscal reform aiming at encouraging employment and supporting business competitiveness. As requested by the CEC, we comment here in detail the impact of a VAT increase without additional measures, on the one hand, and the impact of a VAT increase with transitional neutralization of the effect of that increase on the indexation. As regards the other measures examined, tables of results are annexed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-14 (fr),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2014-2019 (march) (fr), (nl),
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