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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (44)

2021

  • Macroeconomic and fiscal effects of the draft National Recovery and Resilience Plan - Report to the Secretary of State for Recovery and Strategic Investments 28/04/2021

    The National Recovery and Resilience Plan details the use of the €5.925 billion allocated under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The major part (88%) of the Belgian plan is directly intended to increase the capital stock of the Belgian economy through public investment and aid to private investment. In the short term, at the peak of the plan's stimulus effect, economic activity would be 0.2% higher than in the non-plan scenario. Although the stimulus is temporary, it has long-term effects due to the increase in the public capital stock and the support for R&D activities that improve the profitability of the capital stock of firms and encourage its accumulation. By 2040, GDP is still projected to be 0.1% above non-plan growth path. This estimate does not take into account the reform component of the plan, nor the broader recovery, investment and reform plans announced by the Regions and the federal government, nor the effect of foreign plans on the Belgian economy.

    REP 12401  Publication(en), Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

2019

2018

  • Value chain integration of export-oriented and domestic market manufacturing firms - An analysis based on a heterogeneous input-output table for Belgium 26/09/2018

    For a finer analysis of competitiveness and value chain integration, this working paper presents a micro-data based breakdown of manufacturing industries in the 2010 Belgian supply-and-use and input-output tables into export-oriented and domestic market firms. The former are defined as those firms that export at least 25% of their turnover. Analyses based on the resulting export-heterogeneous IOT reveal differences between the two in terms of input structures and import behaviour: export-oriented manufacturers have lower value-added in output shares, and they import proportionally more of the intermediates they use. Moreover, exports of export-oriented manufacturers generate a substantial amount of value added in other Belgian firms, in particular providers of services. The policy implication of these results is that Belgium’s external competitiveness depends not only on exporters but also on firms that mainly serve the domestic market. To maximise the impact of export promotion in terms of domestically generated value added, the entire value chain for the production of exports must be taken into account.

    Working Paper 11-18  Publication(en),

2017

  • Belgium’s Carbon Footprint - Calculations based on a national accounts consistent global multi-regional input-output table 28/09/2017

    The traditional attribution of responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to producing countries may be distorted by international trade flows as importing emission-intensive commodities contributes to reducing a country’s production-based emissions. This has motivated the calculation of carbon footprints that measure the amount of domestic and foreign GHG emissions (directly and indirectly) embodied in commodities intended for final consumption by a country’s residents. In this
    working paper, we present carbon footprint estimations for Belgium based on global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables that have been made consistent with detailed Belgian national accounts. According to our calculations, Belgium’s carbon footprint is substantially higher than its productionbased emissions, which means that Belgium is a net importer of GHG emissions. Moreover, our results show that consistency with detailed national accounts does matter for MRIO-based carbon footprint calculations, in particular for a small open economy like Belgium.

    Working Paper 10-17  Publication(en),

2016

  • Analyse du tableau input-output interrégional pour l’année 2010
    Analyse van de interregionale input-outputtabel voor het jaar 2010 29/04/2016

    This working paper presents two analytical applications based on the interregional input-output (IO) table for Belgium for the year 2010. The Federal Planning Bureau constructed this table in 2015 in cooperation with the statistical authorities of the country’s three Regions (IBSA, SVR and IWEPS). The following standard IO analyses based on applying the Leontief model to the interregional IO table are presented here: the derivation of multipliers for each region and the estimation of regional value added and regional employment generated by domestic final demand and exports.

    Working Paper 05-16  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Een economische analyse van de sector van alcoholische dranken in België
    Une analyse économique du secteur des boissons alcoolisées en Belgique 14/01/2016

    This paper analyses the importance of the production of alcoholic beverages for the Belgian economy, with a particular focus on beer. First, the paper provides an outline of the recent development of production, imports, exports and domestic use of alcoholic beverages. This product analysis is complemented by a study of the branch of alcoholic beverages in which production, added value, investments and employment are discussed. Finally, production, revenue and employment multipliers are calculated using the input-output tables for the year 2010, as well as the total contribution of the whole production and distribution chain of the produced and imported alcoholic beverages to Belgian GDP and employment.

    Working Paper 02-16  Publication - Publicatie(mix),

2013

  • Downstream Offshoring and Firm-level - Employment Evidence for Belgian Manufacturing Firms 16/12/2013

    Over the last couple of decades, there has been a large scale reorganisation of manufacturing production processes within global value chains. This has been achieved through fragmentation and offshoring. Fostered by the fall in coordination costs due to information and communication technology developments, offshoring implies that firms increasingly source intermediates from abroad. In developed economies, this has raised fears of massive job losses. Most academic work, in contrast, fails to find evidence that offshoring contributes to lowering employment.

    Working Paper 16-13  Publication(en),

  • Is offshoring driven by air emissions? Testing the pollution haven effect for imports of intermediates 11/10/2013

    Over the last couple of decades, trade liberalisation has progressed and environmental regulations have become more stringent, in particular regarding emissions of air pollution. This has raised the fear in developed countries that emission-intensive activities are increasingly carried out abroad. This paper develops an approach for testing whether emission-intensive industries have greater shares of imported intermediate materials. The test is applied to the Belgian manufacturing sector for the years 1995-2007. Emissions of three types of air pollutants are analysed: greenhouse gases, acidifying gases and tropospheric precursor gases. The results provide evidence that industries with a high intensity in acidifying gas emissions  (SO2, NOX and NH3) tend to import a greater share of intermediate materials. This is likely to be linked to the stricter enforcement of regulations for air quality, which act upon acidifying gases. There is no such evidence in the results for emissions of tropospheric precursor gases and in particular of greenhouse gases. Regarding the latter, despite stringent regulations, enforcement appears to be less strict.

    Working Paper 12-13  Publication(en),

  • De energie-intensiteit van de componenten van de finale vraag 1995-2005 - Een input-output analyse in constante prijzen 26/09/2013

    The input-output table of 2005 has been, together with new versions of the tables for 1995 and 2005, subjected to a traditional input-output analysis by means of the cumulated costs : the analysis of value added and intermediate imports directly and indirectly caused in the whole economy by the deliveries of one industry to final demand. By means of this technique the share of energy in the (cumulated) cost structure of the industries and components of final demand is examined.

    Working Paper 11-13  Publicatie(nl),

  • Bijdrage van de componenten van de finale vraag tot het bbp 1995-2005 Een input-output analyse in constante prijzen 25/09/2013

    The input-output table of 2005 has been, together with new versions of the tables for 1995 and 2005, subjected to a traditional input-output analysis by means of the cumulated costs: the analysis of value added and intermediate imports directly and indirectly caused in the whole economy by the deliveries of one industry to final demand. By means of this technique is examined which contribution to GDP each component of final demand generates.

    Working Paper 10-13  Publicatie(mix),

  • De gecumuleerde kosten 1995-2005 - Een input-output analyse in constante prijzen 24/09/2013

    The input-output table of 2005 has been, together with new versions of the tables for 1995 and 2005, subjected to a traditional input-output analysis by means of the cumulated costs : the analysis of value added and intermediate imports directly and indirectly caused in the whole economy by the deliveries of one industry to final demand. Two tendencies are observed: an increase of intermediate imports in the cost structures (1995-2000) and a de-industrialization (2000-2005). But a few particularities are also discovered.

    Working Paper 09-13  Publicatie(nl),

  • Arbeidskosten, loonsubsidies, arbeidsproductiviteit en opleidingsinspanningen van ondernemingen
    Coût salarial, subventions salariales, productivité du travail et effort de formation des entreprises 19/07/2013

    Within the context of the economic stimulus plan adopted at the end of 2012, the government set up a group of experts from the National Bank of Belgium (NBB), the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB), the High Council for Employment (HCE), the Directorate General Statistics and Economic Information (DGSEI), the Central Economic Council (CEC) and Eurostat. The group was charged with the following missions:

    • an impact analysis of subsidies which decrease labour costs in Belgium and in its three main neighbouring countries;
    • an analysis per industry of the differences in labour costs and productivity between Belgium and its three main neighbouring countries;
    • an objectification of  the training efforts by enterprises with regard to the 1.9 % objective set by law.

    To complete these missions, the group of experts has drawn up this two-part report. The first part (A) deals with productivity and labour costs and the second part (B) discusses training efforts by enterprises.

    GECE_EGCW_1301  Rapport - Verslag(mix),

  • Does Offshoring Contribute to Reducing Air Emissions? Evidence from Belgian Manufacturing 24/05/2013

    Since the mid-90’s, production-related air emissions in Belgian manufacturing have been reduced substantially and it can be shown that the pace of the reduction has been fastest for domestic intermediates. It is widely debated whether offshoring has played a role in this reduction by replacing domestic intermediates by imported intermediates. This paper develops a decomposition analysis to measure the contribution of offshoring – the share of  imported intermediates in total intermediates – to the fall in air emission intensities for domestic intermediates. This decomposition analysis reveals that 27% of the fall in the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions, 20% of the fall in the intensity of acidifying emissions and 20% of the fall in the intensity of tropospheric precursor emissions in Belgian manufacturing between 1995 and 2007 can be attributed to offshoring.

    Working Paper 05-13  Publication(en),

2012

  • Offshoring and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand in Belgium 30/05/2012

    A major concern regarding the consequences of offshoring is about the labour market position of low-skilled workers. This paper provides evidence for Belgium that offshoring has had a negative impact on the employment share of low-skilled workers in the manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2007. The main contribution to the fall in the low-skilled employment share came from materials offshoring to Central and Eastern Europe (21%), followed by business services offshoring (8%). In manufacturing industries with a higher ICT capital intensity the impact of offshoring is smaller. For market services industries, no robust conclusions regarding the impact of offshoring on low-skilled employment could be drawn.

    Working Paper 07-12  Publication(en),

2011

  • Productivity gains and spillovers from offshoring 16/03/2011

    Offshoring is generally believed to be productivity-enhancing and this belief is underpinned by economic theory. This article contributes to the growing literature that tests empirically whether offshoring does indeed help to improve productivity. Estimating the impact of materials and business services offshoring on productivity growth with industry-level data for Belgium over the period 1995-2004, we investigate this issue separately for manufacturing and market services. The results show that there is no productivity effect of materials offshoring, while business services offshoring leads to productivity gains especially in manufacturing. In addition, we look at the possibility of rent spillovers from offshoring. Productivity gains from offshoring in one industry may feed through to other industries that purchase its output for intermediate use if, due to offshoring, the user value exceeds the price of the output. The lack of evidence of such rent spillovers from either materials or business services offshoring in the data leads us to conclude that firms manage to internalise all efficiency gains from offshoring.

    Working Paper 05-11  Publication(en),

  • Analyse du secteur Horeca en Belgique
    Analyse van de horecasector in België 01/02/2011

    This Working Paper gives an overall picture of the horeca industry in Belgium. The study focuses in particular on aspects of business demography, the importance of the sector for the Belgian economy, its development since the mid-nineties and the financial health of horeca companies. Since the provision of horeca services is a very labour-intensive activity, special  attention is paid to employment features.

    Working Paper 01-11  Publication(mix),

2010

  • Een economische analyse van de productie en distributie van alcoholische dranken in België 23/12/2010

    This paper shows the evolution of production, domestic demand and imports and exports of alcoholic beverages between 1995 and 2009. These variables are given for beer, malt and distilled and non-distilled alcoholic beverages as well as some non-alcoholic beverages. The paper shows the evolution of production, value added, investment, employment and wage costs for the alcoholic beverage producing industry and breaks down employment in breweries by type. For the years 1995 and 2005, the study estimates and compares the GDP contribution and employment generation of the production and distribution of alcoholic beverages in Belgium. These estimates are based on the input-output tables for both years.

    Working Paper 21-10  Publication(nl),

  • Analysis of the macroeconomic effects of organising the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Belgium 24/03/2010

    This  study  discusses  the  possible  effects  of  the  Football  World  Cup  in  2018  on  economic  expenditures.  These  expenditures  mainly  concern  investments  in  stadiums  and  tourist spending  by  visitors.  However,  visiting  teams,  the  media  and  organisational  and  security spending also generate effects. Total expenditure is estimated at €1.15 billion, spread over an eight - year  period,  with  a  large  confidence  interval.  The  effects  of  those  expenditures  on  economic  activity  were  calculated  using  two  economic  models:  an  input - output  model  and  the macroeconomic  model, HERMES .  The  effect  on GDP should  amount  to  approximately  0.13%  in 2018. Employment should increase by roughly 450 to 750 jobs during the run - up to the tournament and by an equivalent of 4 000 to 8 000 man - years in the course of the tournament itself.

    Working Paper 08-10  Publication(en), Publication(mix),

2009

  • Qualitative Employment Multipliers for the Belgian Environmental Industry 14/12/2009

    The present paper computes cumulative employment generated by the Belgian environmental industry. Relying on Belgian input-output tables for the year 2000 and on detailed employment data (SAM sub-matrix), we investigate the patterns of the employment in the environmental industry, by considering the worker types differentiated by gender, educational attainment or a combination of these characteristics. The employment multiplier analysis of environmental employment reveals some interesting differences between employment of the overall economy and environmental employment for the level of education as well as for the gender type.

    Working Paper 13-09  Publication(en),

  • The impact of offshoring on employment in Belgium 23/01/2009

    The fear of massive job losses has prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This paper examines the situation for Belgium. The offshoring intensity is computed as a volume measure of the share of imported intermediate inputs in output based on a series of constant price supply-and-use tables for the period 1995-2003. Both materials and business services offshoring to high-wage and low-wage countries are addressed. The split-up according to the origin of the imported intermediates is done combining detailed trade data with data from the use table. The main findings are that materials offshoring stands at a higher level than business services offshoring, but that the latter grows much faster especially for the Central and Eastern European countries. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003. However, this does not preclude a differential impact by skill-level.

    Working Paper 01-09  Publication(en),

2008

  • Quantifying environmental leakage for Belgium 30/10/2008

    This paper illustrates the deficiency of the production approach as a tool to measure a country’s responsibility for international environmental impacts. A use approach is presented as a more suitable tool. The difference between the two approaches is determined by a better grasp of international trade, which can lead to environmental leakage when a country specialises in the production of environmentally friendly products and has the environmentally unfriendly products which it consumes produced abroad. We show that in the period 1995-2002 Belgium was on average a provider of air emission intensive products for the rest of the world. Environmental leakage was mostly negative. However, the evolution of the Belgian environmental terms of trade shows that by 2002 its imports had become considerably more air emission intensive with respect to its exports than in 1995. There are indications that this evolution is due to a considerable increase of extra-EU imports of air emission intensive products. This in turn could point to environmentally inspired offshoring. However, the currently available data do not allow us to test this hypothesis.

    Working Paper 19-08  Publication(en),

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