To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
At the request of the steering committee of the Pension knowledge centre, an overview is provided of how strenuous work is taken into account in the pension legislation of some EU countries. There is no uniform approach to the concept of strenuous work in the different countries under investigation. Two major trends can be identified: a list of strenuous occupations in the older legislations and a list of objective criteria in the most recent legislations. In some cases, these criteria include also criteria of mental strain. With a few exceptions, all systems examined only apply to private sector workers.
Reports - OPREP201603 (mix),
The Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium have updated their demographic projections. Belgium’s population should grow by about 85,000 inhabitants both in 2016 and 2017. Half of this growth is due to the additional flow of refugees. However important, this population increase is not exceptional; such increases have already been recorded in recent years, for example between 2007 and 2011. Over the long term, the average population growth should reach 40,000 inhabitants a year between 2020 and 2060 (against 50,000 inhabitants over the 1991-2014 period).
Forecasts & Outlook - EFPOP1560 (fr), (nl),
Reports - OPREP201605 (mix), (mix),
The 2015 Ageing Report includes pension projections made in autumn 2014. For Belgium these did not take into account the new pension reform announced in the Government Agreement of October 2014. By the end of July 2015, all the different components of the reform had been legislated. This Belgian updated projection of November 2015 takes into account this pension reform.
In comparison with the 2015 Ageing Report projection, the revision of the pension cost of ageing is mainly due to the pension reform. Other new measures are also included, mainly the present indexation freeze (implying a 2% decrease of pensions in real terms) and a reduction of public employment (implying some redistribution of future pensioners across the different pension schemes). These updated projections are based on an updated database (more recent version of national accounts data in ESA 2010). In addition, some refinements of the pension models were required in order to simulate the pension reform.
Others - REP_COUNTRYFICH2015 (en),
Reports - REP_CEP_03 (mix),
Others - REP_CEP_01 (mix),
This report presents the results of an impact assessment of an increase in the social integration allowance (assistance scheme). The study which was commissioned by the State Secretary responsible for poverty reduction consists of two parts, on the one hand, an assessment of the macroeconomic and budgetary effects, including the possible return effects, of the increase and, on the other hand, an estimate of its impact on the poverty risk.
Reports - OPREP201512 (mix), (mix),
Others - FORVERG201501 (fr), (nl),
Since a couple of decades, the pension policy of member states is a focal point of attention on the European level. Securing financial sustainability by the AWG requires a prospective vision on ageing, labour market developments and social policy. But a sensible assessment of financial sustainability cannot do without taking into account the prospect ive development of pension adequacy. The SPC does this through prospective theoretical replacement rates and benefit ratios. However, prospective values of the key ISG indicators, such as the risk of poverty rate or the Gini are not available.
Reports - REP_SIMUBESEHU0515 (en),
Speeches & presentations - SP20150512_01 (mix),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2020 (fr), (nl), (fr), (nl), (fr), (fr), (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl), (nl), (nl),
Reports - REP_LTMARCH2015_10994 (fr), (nl),
This Working Paper presents the methodological progress made in projecting international migration. The new methodology is notably based on an analysis of migration flows per nationality and on statistics on reasons for migrating, in order to assess whether economic variables constitute relevant determinants of migration. If they do, the impact of economic determinants on immigration is estimated using econometric methods. The methodology also takes into account the increasing globalization and mobility as well as the expected growth of the global population which boost international migration flows (immigration and emigration). Finally, it grants more stability to the long-term migration projections and, therefore, to the population projections; the annual revisions of long-term migration will be less dependent on the short-term evolution of migration flows.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 02-15 (en), (fr),
The Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium have updated their demographic projections until 2060. Belgium’s population should grow from 11.2 million in 2014 to 11.9 million in 2030 (+7%) and 13.1 million in 2060 (+17%). The number of private households in Belgium should rise from 4.8 million in 2013 to 5.3 million in 2030 (+10%) and 5.9 million in 2060 (+23%).
These results are based on a set of hypotheses regarding the future evolution of birth and death rates, international and domestic migration and, as far as households are concerned, the evolution of the different ways of living together. One chapter of the publication deals with prospective mortality rates, which allows projecting « period » life expectancies (cross-sectional approach) and « generational » life expectancies (cohort approach).
Forecasts & Outlook - EFPOP1460 (fr), (nl),
Reports - REP 15-02 (fr),
Reports - REP 15-01 (fr),
For the sixth time since 2001, the EPC Working Group on Ageing Population (AWG) has performed long-term economic and budgetary projections aimed at assessing the impact of ageing population. The last “Ageing Report” to date was published in 2012. The 2015 edition, which will be released in spring 2015, will present projections which have been endorsed in February 2015 by the EPC.
The projections of public pension expenditure are worked out at national level – by the Federal Planning Bureau in the case of Belgium – in the framework of the assumptions of the AWG, while the projections of the other age-related public expenditure items are worked out by DG ECFIN Services. These public pension expenditure projections are submitted to a peer review process, on the basis of a technical so-called national “country fiche”. These “country fiches” are released by the EC jointly with the “Ageing Report” itself, but the EC has kindly authorized FPB to use the “Belgium: Country Fiche 2014” for national purposes and to publish it before the release of the “Ageing Report 2015”.
Reports - REP_COUNTRYFICH2014 (en),
This Working Paper presents the methodology the Federal Planning Bureau currently utilizes to draw up the Belgian household projections by 2060. This methodology allows for detailed projections of the number of households (at the district level) by household type and according to the factual situation and not the legal situation. Thus, the projections include the different forms of living arrangements, such as cohabitation, single-parent families, single households, etc. They also guarantee the coherence with the national population projections which have been published by the Federal Planning Bureau and the Directorate-General of Statistics for several years and are based on the so-called component method.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 09-14 (fr),
This paper presents the models developed at the FPB to project public spending on curative care and long-term care in the medium and long term. The variables explaining curative care spending are income, the age composition of the population, the unemployment rate and technological and medical progress. This variable is approximated using two indicators, the number of new drug approvals (Farmanet data) and the approvals for non-pharmaceutical products (Food and Drug Administration data). With the exception of the latter, all drivers mentioned above increase the cost of curative care. As for long-term care spending, it is explained by income, the proportion of older people in the population and their life expectancy. Long-term care spending is positively impacted by income and ageing. Yet, due to the increase in life expectancy, the impact of ageing shifts gradually towards the oldest age group.
Planning & Working Papers - Working Paper 06-14 (nl),
The present document is the fourth biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.
This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on June 30, 2014).
Reports - OPREP201403 (fr), (nl),
Others - FORVERG201401 (fr), (nl),
Since mid-2013, the Federal Planning Bureau has produced a series of studies and simulations at the request of and for the Commission on Pension Reform 2020-2040 under the research contract agreed between the Department Social Security and the Federal Planning Bureau.
Reports - OP_REP_PEN14
The Federal Planning Bureau and the Directorate-General Statistics and Economic Information have updated their demographic projections until 2060. Belgium’s population should grow from 11.1 million in 2013 to 11.9 million in 2030 (+7%) and 12.5 million in 2060 (+13%). The number of private households in Belgium should rise from 4.8 million in 2013 to 5.3 million in 2030 (+11%) and 5.8 million in 2060 (+21%).
Forecasts & Outlook - EFPOP1360 (fr), (nl),
The present document is the third biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.
This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on January 31, 2014). In addition, the report attempts to provide an analysis of those measures.
Reports - OPREP201401 (fr), (nl),
At the occasion of its 50th anniversary, the National Institute for Health and Invalidity Insurance (NIHDI) asked the Federal Planning Bureau to draft a report on the social impact of public health care and health care insurance. We focused on three specific questions. First, what was the contribution of health care to population health during the past half-century? Lacking sufficient data on other dimensions of health, we look at mortality and life expectancy. Two approaches to this question lead to the same conclusion: the expansion of health care has contributed substantially to the increase in life years. The second question concerns the role of health care in the economy. The value added and employment in the branches Health care and Social services has increased vastly between 1970 and making health care an ever more important part of the Belgian economy . The third question is about the impact of health care and public health care insurance on inequalities in health and income. Among other findings, we report that in Belgium there is no social inequality in the use of general practitioner, though there is in specialist consultations. Also, a fairly large number of older persons have to cope with own contributions to health care that exceed 10% of their income.
Reports - OP_INAMI_RIZIV_14 (fr), (nl),