The cost of traffic congestion in Belgium 06/09/2019
This paper seeks to quantify the cost of the most important inefficiencies in Belgian transport taxation. To this end we calculate the welfare gain of an ideal, optimal tax/subsidy system across the transport market as a whole (i.e. considering private road traffic in conjunction with public transport). We found the total welfare gain to be 2.3 billion euros, of which 1.3 billion are due to time gains of remaining road users. Our measure lies significantly above those found in the literature, since we consider the distortion cause by a wide range of subsidies.
Analysis of the air pollution associated with household consumption in Belgium in 2014: the case of greenhouse gas emissions 05/09/2019
This Working Paper examines which socioeconomic household characteristics determine greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium. The analysis is based on the PEACH2AIR database, which links the air pollution data with consumption expenditure of Belgian households as recorded in the 2014 Household Budget Survey.
This Working Paper identifies the characteristics that explain severe material deprivation in Belgium, while making a distinction between people aged below 65 and those aged 65 or above. Severe material deprivation has decreased for both groups. Young people are more impacted than the elderly. Although there is a clear link between income and deprivation, the overlap between individuals identified as at risk of poverty and those as severely deprived is far from perfect. The correlation between income poverty and deprivation is weaker for the old group than for the young.
WP 07-19 (en),
Les mesures qui permettent d’acquérir une première expérience professionnelle accélèrent-elles les sorties du chômage vers l’emploi ? Une analyse de trois dispositifs en Région bruxelloise
Versnellen de maatregelen die een eerste werkervaring mogelijk maken de uitstroom van werkloosheid naar werk? Een analyse van drie maatregelen in het Brussels Gewest 08/07/2019
Which priority for a sustainable development ? - Federal Report on Sustainable Development 25/06/2019
The 2019 Federal Report on Sustainable Development takes stock of 51 indicators monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): the extrapolation/continuation of current trends does not allow all the objectives to be reached. The Report assesses the current sustainable development policies. It concludes that the federal public services have achieved concrete results, despite the lack of political momentum to reach the SDGs. This Report also analyses the impact on the SDGs of different modalities for applying a carbon tax and of alternative policies to company cars.
This Working Paper analyses the competitive position of the pharmaceutical industry over the 2000-2017 period. The evolution of price/cost competitiveness and non-cost competitiveness is studied based on a comparison with our neighbouring countries France, the Netherlands and Germany, and with Denmark, Ireland, Slovenia and Switzerland. The study also analyses a series of global factors and factors specific to the pharmaceutical industry that may influence competitiveness.
Working Paper 05-19 (fr),
Belgium has committed to raise investment in research and development (R&D) to 3% of GDP by 2020. In fulfilment of this commitment, the federal government introduced different tax incentives in support of business R&D. This paper presents the results of the third evaluation of the efficiency of these tax incentives, covering the period 2003-2015.
Working Paper 04-19 (en),
Analysis of concrete measures submitted by the Climate Coalition - Study commissioned by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumers 28/03/2019
This report was drafted to meet the request of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumer Affairs to analyse the potential impact on the greenhouse gas emission reduction of a number of concrete measures submitted by the Climate Coalition. The report is mainly based on existing studies carried out by the Federal Planning Bureau.
Medium-term projection for Belgium of the at-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion indicators based on EU-SILC 28/02/2019
The Federal Planning Bureau has developed within the Nowcasting project a dynamic microsimulation model for nowcasting and medium-term forecasts (currently up to 2020) of indicators of poverty and social exclusion. Key messages of this project are that nowcasting and medium-term forecasting are now possible using a fully dynamic microsimulation model. The provisional results of the model suggest that the overall poverty risk would remain stable, but that of the 65+ subpopulation would decrease over time, while that of the younger population would show a small increase. Furthermore, the increase of overall ine-quality would come to a halt and the level of inequality would become more stable. Finally, the very low work intensity rate would continue its decrease, driven by the continuing increase of the employment rate among the working-age population.
Working Paper 03-19 (en),
Twenty years of policy for the sustainability of Belgian public finances - From a strategy of pre-funding the costs of ageing to a policy of reforms of the socio-economic model 28/02/2019
The Ageing fund, which was set up in 2001 as an instrument to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances, was abolished in 2016. Its abolition symbolises the transition from a strategy of pre-funding the budgetary cost of ageing, which dominated in the early 2000s, to a strategy based mainly on reforms to the socioeconomic model. The latter was initiated after the global financial crisis and has been firmly stepped up in recent years. This Planning Paper describes the economic and institutional factors behind the shift in sustainability policy, as well as the role of the various stakeholders: the governments of course, but also the High Council of Finance, the European authorities and the Federal Planning Bureau, which has produced long-term analyses and assessments over the past 25 years that have both reflected and helped to shape the pursued policy.
Inégalités de bien-être en Belgique - Construction de onze indicateurs composites pour mesurer le bien-être de différentes catégories de la population
Ongelijkheden op het gebied van welzijn in België - opbouw van elf composiete indicatoren om het welzijn van verschillende bevolkingscategorieën te meten. 12/02/2019
This Working paper proposes eleven new composite indicators to measure changes in well-being for women, men, four age groups and five income categories (quintiles) in Belgium. They were constructed using a statistical analysis of the drivers of well-being specific to these population groups. These indicators are complementary to the indicator Well-being here and now that measures the average development in well-being in Belgium.
Complementary indicators to GDP, 2019 04/02/2019
This report presents the annual update of a set of indicators complementary to GDP. These indicators cover the period from 1990 to 2017, depending on the availability of the data. The Act of 14 March 2014, which complements the Act of 21 December 1994 establishing social and diverse provisions with a set of complementary indicators to measure the quality of life, human development, social progress and the sustainability of our economy, entrusts the National Accounts Institute with the development of this set of indicators and assigns this mission to the Federal Planning Bureau.
Perspectives de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2040
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2040 31/01/2019
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces, every three years, long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise is the fourth of its kind so far. It aims to make a projection of no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing elements on which transport policy should be based to be identified and the impact of transport policy measures to be studied.
The new Belgian CAr Stock MOdel, which is linked to the national transport demand model PLANET, is structured as follows: (a) The total desired car stock in each future year is a function of the country’s population and GDP per capita. (b) The probability that a car is scrapped is modelled as a function of its age and accumulated mileage. The desired car stock is then confronted with the remaining car stock to determine total car purchases. (c) Total sales are allocated to individual emission classes, using the parameter values of a Stated Preference discrete choice model. The model is then calibrated in order to reflect the current market and policy context in Belgium (d) The results are mapped into an inventory that is aggregated according to the EURO emission class. (e) In order to represent that the non-price barriers to electrified cars will decrease over time, we have implemented an alternative approach where the perceived acquisition costs decrease over time. Alternatively, this approach can be used to explore what would be the required decrease in subjective costs to reach a given future market share.
Working Paper 01-19 (en),
The 2018-2070 demographic outlook presents the evolution of the population and households in Belgium from 2018 to 2070. The assumptions have been updated, taking into account new observations available, in particular population statistics as at 1 January 2018 and movements (births, deaths, internal and international migration) for 2017. The outlook also provides specific insight into medium-term fertility rates.
Chiffrage 2019 : note de lancement - Document rédigé dans le cadre des travaux préparatoires au chiffrage des programmes électoraux 2019
Doorrekening 2019: startnota - Document opgesteld in het kader van de voorbereidende werkzaamheden van de doorrekening van de verkiezingsprogramma’s van 2019 11/01/2019