This working paper analyses the economic impact of a regulated professional services reform in Belgium through simulations based on the European Commission’s DSGE model QUEST III R&D
WP 09-18 (en),
What are the consequences of the AWG 2018 projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy? Simulations for three EU member states 29/06/2018
In preparation of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report by the European Commission and the Social Protection Committee, teams from Belgium, Sweden and Italy use their microsimulation models to simulate the possible developments of pension adequacy while taking into account the set of economic and demographic projections developed by the AWG. The results of this exercise complement the AWG simulations of pension expenditures in a context of demographic. The results described in detail in this report were summarised in section 5.1.2. of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report.
Comprendre le non-recours aux mesures de réductions de cotisations patronales : une approche méthodologique mixte
De non-take-up van werkgeversbijdrage-verminderingen begrijpen: een gemengde methodologische benadering 22/06/2018
This study seeks to identify the reasons for non-take-up by employers. It uses a mixed methods research: we have first explored the issue through in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, then carried out a quantitative survey among employers and finally sought to enhance the survey results through interviews and focus groups. The interpretation of this phased approach has provided elements for making recommendations to reduce non-take-up.
This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. In this case, ’consistent’ means that the sum of all intra-EU movements should be equal to 0. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.
This paper shows that the currently available official statistics on migration flows can be used to build a multiregional migration model at the EU level. Although more developments should be implemented to test and improve the model, it produces promising results.
WP 07-18 (en),
Insights in a clean energy future for Belgium - Impact assessment of the 2030 Climate & Energy Framework 17/05/2018
In October 2017, the Federal Planning Bureau published its three-yearly energy outlook describing the Belgian energy and emission projections under unchanged policy up to horizon 2050. That outlook demonstrates that we are drifting away from agreed targets and international agreements made to protect future societies from hazardous levels of climate change. That is why that outlook is complemented by this report that adopts a different perspective. This publication describes and analyses three alternative policy scenarios that are compatible both with the 2030 EU Climate and Energy Framework and with the roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050.
Non-take-up of employers' social security contributions cuts: the case of the “first recruitments” measure 30/04/2018
The ‘first recruitments’ measure aims at supporting job creation in new and small firms through a reduction in employers' social security contributions. However, part of the eligible employers does not claim this reduction. Using administrative data from the National Social Security Office, we seek to quantify this phenomenon, which may bias the intended effect of the measure, and to identify profiles of non-take-up.
This report presents a brief disaggregation of the budget balance of the sub-sector “communities and regions” that was published in the March 2018 “2018-2023 Economic Outlook”. The budget balances of the Flemish Community, the French-speaking Community, the Walloon Region and the Brussels-Capital Region are presented.
Perspectives économiques 2018-2023 - Version de mars 2018
Economische vooruitzichten 2018-2023 - Versie van maart 2018 22/03/2018
This report constitutes a contribution to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and the new National Reform Programme. It includes the main results of the preliminary version of the “2018-2023 Economic Outlook” to be published in June 2018.
Les charges administratives en Belgique pour l’année 2016
De administratieve lasten in België voor het jaar 2016 22/03/2018
At the request of the Ministerial Council and in collaboration with the Agency for Administrative Simplification (AAS), the Federal Planning Bureau carries out an estimate every two years of the administrative burdens for firms and self-employed in Belgium. This estimate is based on a survey of a representative sample of firms and self-employed. In addition to the quantitative part, the survey also includes an important qualitative part that shows how firms and self-employed view the problem of administrative burdens. This Planning Paper shows the results regarding the administrative burdens for 2016.
Between April 2013 and January 2015, youth sub-minimum wage rates were repealed in Belgium. We identify the impact of the reform by comparing outcomes before and after the withdrawal, across eligible and ineligible categories of young workers, and across abolishing and not abolishing joint committees. Our results show that the reform had a small positive impact on wages and on retention rates and a comparable but negative impact on accession rates.
Working Paper 04-18 (en),
The PEACH2AIR database of air pollution associated with household consumption in Belgium in 2014 - Methodological description for the SUSPENS research project funded by the Federal Science Policy Office 14/03/2018
The database PEACH2AIR links emissions of greenhouse and acidifying gases, of gases contributing to tropospheric ozone formation and particulate matter to consumer expenditures in Belgium in 2014. It relies on standardized air pollution data (including air emissions accounts), input-output tables and the Household Budget Survey. Analyses for 2014 show that energy products as well as food and non-alcoholic beverages are the most air polluting expenditure categories.
Working Paper 03-18 (en),
Impact van het Pact - Bijkomende cijfers ter staving van een Energiepact
Impact du Pacte : chiffres additionnels à l’appui du Pacte énergétique 26/02/2018
December 22 2017, the Federal Planning Bureau received an assignment from the federal minister of Energy, Mrs. Marghem, to perform a new study. The occasion was the appearance of the joint Vision document elaborated by the four Ministers of Energy and the subsequent demand for additional calculations by some stakeholders. The main task of this supplementary study then consists in analysing the impact of four predefined electricity scenarios with horizon 2030 on a number of socio-economic indicators.
Perspectives démographiques 2017-2070 - Population et ménages
Demografische vooruitzichten 2017-2070 - Bevolking en huishoudens 22/02/2018
The Federal Planning Bureau publishes its 2017-2070 demographic projections for Belgium. This exercise notably reveals the impact of the disappearance of the baby boom generation, as well as certain regional differences.
Mesurer le bien-être en Belgique - Construction d’un indicateur composite pour mesurer le bien-être actuel des Belges
Het welzijn in België meten - Opbouw van een composiete indicator om het huidige welzijn van de Belgen te meten 19/02/2018
This Working Paper proposes an indicator to measure the development in well-being in Belgium. It was built from a statistical analysis of the determinants of well-being in Belgium. It has the advantage of being transparent, divisible and easy to communicate. The analysis shows that the well-being of Belgians generally decreased between 2005 and 2016. This decrease is mainly due to a deterioration in the health of Belgians.
Complementary indicators to GDP, 2018 15/02/2018
This report presents the update of a set of indicators complementary to GDP. These indicators cover the period from 1990 to 2016, depending on the availability of the data. The Act of 14 March 2014, which complements the Act of 21 December 1994 establishing social and diverse provisions with a set of complementary indicators to measure the quality of life, human development, social progress and the sustainability of our economy, entrusts the National Accounts Institute with the development of this set of indicators and assigns this mission to the Federal Planning Bureau.
This report also proposes a composite indicator to measure well-being Here and now‘. It should be completed in the forthcoming updates by composite indicators for the two other dimensions of sustainable development, ’Later‘ and ’Elsewhere‘.
The data are available on www.indicators.be.
Population projections 2016-2060 : sensitivity analyses, alternative scenarios and budgetary and social impact 05/02/2018
This Working Paper analyses various alternative population projections. The first approach shows the impact of alternative future development scenarios for the population growth components. The effects of some of these scenarios on the development in social expenditure and the at-risk-of-poverty rate for pensioners are also analysed. The second approach consists in carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the population projection to some model parameters, in particular the observation periods selected to estimate trends.
Working Paper 01-18 (fr),