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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (1002)

2021

  • Macroeconomic and fiscal effects of the draft National Recovery and Resilience Plan - Report to the Secretary of State for Recovery and Strategic Investments 28/04/2021

    The National Recovery and Resilience Plan details the use of the €5.925 billion allocated under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The major part (88%) of the Belgian plan is directly intended to increase the capital stock of the Belgian economy through public investment and aid to private investment. In the short term, at the peak of the plan's stimulus effect, economic activity would be 0.2% higher than in the non-plan scenario. Although the stimulus is temporary, it has long-term effects due to the increase in the public capital stock and the support for R&D activities that improve the profitability of the capital stock of firms and encourage its accumulation. By 2040, GDP is still projected to be 0.1% above non-plan growth path. This estimate does not take into account the reform component of the plan, nor the broader recovery, investment and reform plans announced by the Regions and the federal government, nor the effect of foreign plans on the Belgian economy.

    Reports - REP 12401  Publication(en), Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • 2020-2070 2020-2070 demographic outlook - Reference and alternative scenarios 31/03/2021

    This publication presents the main results of the demographic outlook for Belgium: population, households, births, deaths, international migration and internal migration.  To show the sensitivity of the results to some assumptions, three alternative scenarios are analysed: one linked to the health crisis (Covid-19), another modifying the long-term mortality assumption and a last one adjusting the assumption on international emigration.

    Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_POP2070_12389  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Analysis of the effect of the "first recruitments" measure on the survival of young businesses employing salaried staff 05/03/2021

    The "first recruitments"measure aims to promote employment while supporting small businesses and start-ups. The analysis shows that the measure has a positive but modest impact on the probability of survival of young businesses. Furthermore, the reinforcement in 2016 does not appear to have generated any additional benefit. On the one hand, these results imply that the strengthening of the measure does not address a genuine need on the part of the recipients. On the other hand, the reinforcement may have encouraged more employers to undertake a risky business activity.

    Planning & Working Papers - WP 02-21  Publication(fr),

  • Household expenditure for transport: 2021 update 17/02/2021

    This working paper describes main evolutions in household expenditure for transport in Belgium. Results are based on data from national accounts (National Accounts Institute, Eurostat) as well as data from Household budget surveys (Statbel).

    Planning & Working Papers - WP 01-21  Publication(fr),

  • Columns G and H of the supplementary table on pension schemes in social insurance (Table 29) - First pillar pensions in Belgium 16/02/2021

    The supplementary table 29 of the Eurostat transmission program covers the statutory and occupational pension schemes in social insurance in Belgium. The FPB is charged with the compilation of columns G and H, which include accrued-to-date pension entitlements/liabilities in the statutory pension schemes, representing the present discounted value of accrued-to-date future old-age and survivor pensions of current beneficiaries and future beneficiaries who accumulated pension rights up to the valuation date.

    This version of the report of January 2021 is an update of the version originally posted on the FPB website in December 2020. New estimates have been made with the assumption of a fixed discount rate of 2% for the baseline scenario and 1 and 3% for the sensitivity analysis.

    Reports - REP_12213  Publication(en),

  • To what extent can supporting carpooling reduce road congestion? 28/01/2021

    A policy mix of “stick” measures (generalised distance based road charge) and “carrot” measures (supporting carpooling) could induce an increase in the occupation rate of cars in Belgium from 1.44 to 1.50. This relatively modest increase can be explained by the relatively small share of trips for which an increase in the occupation rate is a realistic option, and by the inconveniences linked to the organisation of carpooling. Nevertheless, this policy mix can induce a notable improvement in the traffic situation during the peak periods in the regions that currently suffer the most from congestion.

    Articles - Article 006  

2020

  • Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts 2008-2018 21/12/2020

    European Regulation No 691/2011 (amended by European Regulation No 538/2014) obliges the member states of the European Union to deliver six environmental economic accounts as of 2017. The accounts concerned are the three accounts that have been obligatory since 2013, the Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity (ETEA), the Air Emissions Accounts (AEA) and the Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts (EW-MFA), as well as the three accounts that have been delivered since 2017, the Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS), the Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts (EPEA), and the Physical Energy Flow Accounts (PEFA).

    In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EW-MFA for the years 2008-2018.

    Reports - REP_EWMFA2020_12250  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts 2014-2018 21/12/2020

    European Regulation No 691/2011 (amended by European Regulation No 538/2014) obliges the member states of the European Union to deliver six environmental economic accounts as of 2017. The accounts concerned are the three accounts that have been obligatory since 2013, the Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity (ETEA), the Air Emissions Accounts (AEA) and the Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts (EW-MFA), as well as the three accounts that have been delivered since 2017, the Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS), the Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts (EPEA), and the Physical Energy Flow Accounts (PEFA).

    In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EPEA for the years 2014-2018.

    Reports - REP_EPEA2020_12249  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Teleworking and transport demand: an assessment in the PLANET model 20/11/2020

    The aim of this study is to take a step back about teleworking as a tool to tackle mobility issues. Beyond the renewed interest in the public debate from which teleworking benefits, and its strong emphasis since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, the aim here is to use reliable sources and proven models to identify the relationship between increased teleworking and decreased transport demand. To this end, the PLANET model of the Federal Planning Bureau has been adapted to explicitly take into account changes in this practice in its long-term projections.

    Planning & Working Papers - WP 06-20  Publication(fr),

  • Economic Policy Committee’s Ageing Working Group – Belgium: Country Fiche 2020 16/11/2020

    The Ageing Working Group was established in December 1999 by the Economic Policy Committee of the European Council ECOFIN. This working group is responsible for producing common budgetary projections on age-related public expenditure items. Each Member State calculates its long-term pension expenditure based on common assumptions.

    This report presents the Belgian pension projection 2019-2070 published in the “2021 Ageing Report”. These results will be used in the context of the “Fiscal Sustainability Report” of the European Commission that assesses the mid-term and long-term fiscal situation of Member states.

    It should be noted that the demographic and macroeconomic assumptions in the public pension expenditure projection of Belgium for the AWG are different from those retained in the national projection of the Study Committee on Ageing, as well as the scope of pension definition. 

    Reports - REP_COUNTRYFICH2020  Publication(en),

  • Fuel for the future - More molecules or deep electrification of Belgium's energy system by 2050 21/10/2020

    In this report, the Federal Planning Bureau sets out to scrutinise the place hydrogen can occupy in the future Belgian energy system by 2050. In fact, this publication focuses on two divergent evolutions of energy (end) uses: on the one hand, a far-reaching electrification of the final energy consumption, on the other, a sustained and increased use of gas for transport, (industrial) heating and power generation. Different outcomes of the two future visions are reported such as the required investments in infrastructure (interconnections, electrolysers, storage).

    Planning & Working Papers - WP 04-20  Publication(en),

  • Estimation of Potential growth and output gap for Belgium 15/10/2020

    This report shows the estimations of potential growth and the output gap for Belgium, based on a technical update of the Federal Planning Bureau’s June 2020 medium-term projections (update published in September 2020). The results are then compared to the European Commission’s Spring 2020 forecasts.

    Reports - REP_12229  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Modelling fertility for national population projections - The case of Belgium 12/10/2020

    This Working Paper presents the methodology that has been applied since 2020 in the model used to draw up the population outlook for Belgium. The methodology considers that fertility is explained by both structural (education, labour market participation, etc.) and cyclical factors (the economic cycle, etc.). Those factors are taken into account through three elements: (1) expert opinion on long-term fertility trends, (2) an explicit trend in the fertility schedule and (3) the effect of cyclical and structural determinants of fertility using an error-correction model.

    Planning & Working Papers - WP 03-20  Publication(en),

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