Page Title

Publications

Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

Documents (108)

2014

2013

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2013 - 2014 30/09/2013

    Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédé-ral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsa-bilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Economic outlook 2013-2014  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2013-2014 (Juin) 13/06/2013

    Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes nationaux a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Ces prévisions macroéconomiques s’inscrivent dans le cadre d’un contrôle budgétaire supplémentaire en 2013 et de la préparation du budget fédéral pour 2014.

    Economic outlook 2013-2014 (June)  

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2013 28/02/2013

    Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Economic forecasts 2013  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

2012

  • Short Term Update 04-12 : Special Topic - Long-term care organisation at the regional level: similar systems, different futures? 04/12/2012

    Headlines Belgian Economy

    The FPB’s latest forecast dates from September and predicted, conditional on our traditional assumption of unchanged budgetary policy, a GDP growth rate of -0.1% in 2012 and 0.7% in 2013 for the Belgian economy. This forecast was established against a background of euro area GDP growth amounting to -0.5% and 0.3% for those years respectively.

    The Belgian GDP flash estimate matched our forecast of zero qoq GDP growth in 2012Q3, and recent forecasts of the European Commission (October) and the OECD (November) were in line with the FPB forecast. National as well as international leading indicators (such as the Ifo, PMI, and the NBB business cycle indicators) are tentatively stabilising, implying that a modest recovery for the euro area as a whole and for Belgium in the course of 2013 remains plausible.

    We have not yet estimated the economic impact of the Belgian government’s decisions taken in November (which are summarised in the “policy measures” section on page 21), but expect it to be quite small. The federal government’s effort to reduce the budget deficit to 2.15% of GDP in 2013 focuses on measures of which the impact on economic activity should be limited.
    Important risks to the international scenario still remain. These encompass a new intensification of the European sovereign debt crisis, the possibility that the US economy will fall back into recession if the fiscal cliff materialises, and a surge in oil prices because of turmoil in the Middle East. Finally, additional fiscal consolidation efforts in the euro area could have adverse effects on short-term aggregate demand as there is evidence that fiscal multipliers are currently higher than in normal economic conditions.

    Our next short-term forecast will be published in February 2013.

    STU 04-12 was finalised on 4 December 2012.

    Short Term Update 04-12  Publication(en),

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2012 - 2013 16/10/2012

    Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 2 des Comptes nationaux 2011 ("Comptes détaillés et tableaux") mais aussi les agrégats trimestriels jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2012.

    Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur des prévisions consensus récentes (The Economist) et sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers à la fin août. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP.

    Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 13 septembre 2012.

    Economic forecasts 2012 - 2013  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Short Term Update 02-12 : Special Topic - Dealing with uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasting 01/06/2012

    The new economic outlook for Belgium for the period 2012-2017 is based on a context of budget consolidation and weak economic growth for Europe. After a year 2012 marked by a mild recession, the euro area should gradually recover the path of growth. However, this growth would be modest and mixed according to country. The main risk factor for these growth forecasts lies in the sovereign debt crisis and the evolution of the financial sector in the euro area.

    Despite this unfavourable context, the Belgium economy should avoid a recession in 2012 and register GDP growth equal to 1.4% in 2013. From 2014 onwards, Belgian economic growth should become more dynamic, without exceeding 2%. Export growth should amount to 3.7% on average on an annual basis over the period 2014-2017, which means that the loss of market share should persist (1.3 percentage points per year). Over the same period, domestic demand should have an annual growth rate of 1.6%, causing GDP to increase by 1.9% on average per year.

    Belgian inflation should exceed largely 2% in 2012, owing to a new rise in energy prices, the depreciation of the euro against the dollar, and increases in indirect taxes, but should fall below 2% in 2013, notably thanks to lower oil prices. In the context of a moderate rise in international energy prices, Belgian inflation should stabilize at 1.8% on average during the period 2014-2017.

    Total domestic employment should increase by 8 000 units this year and by 14 000 units next year. From 2014 onwards, total employment is expected to increase by 188 000 jobs over the period 2014-2017. The number of unemployed persons (broad administrative concept) should rise between 2012 and 2014 (+ 64 000 units). Over the following years, employment should grow more strongly, while the labour force continues to expand, partially due to the pension reform. As a result, the decrease in unemployment should remain limited to 33 000 units during the period 2015-2017. Finally, as measured by the Eurostat definition, which allows for international comparisons, the unemployment rate should amount to 7.3% in 2013, compared to 7.2% in 2011.

    Driven by the federal government's consolidation measures and the federate bodies' ongoing budgetary consolidation, the general government's deficit should shrink to 2.6% of GDP this year (compared to 3.7% in 2011) and thus meet the objective of the Stability Programme. Without additional measures, the general government's deficit should again increase to 2.8% of GDP in 2013. In the medium term, the deficit should shrink slightly to attain 2.5% of GDP in 2017. To reach a balanced budget in 2015 (as planned by the Stability Programme), additional measures amounting to EUR 11 billion are thus necessary.

    STU 2-12 was finalised on 1 June 2012.

    Short Term Update 02-12  Publication(en),

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2012 09/03/2012

    Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 1 des Comptes nationaux 2010 (" Comptes détaillés et tableaux ") mais aussi les agrégats trimestriels jusqu’au troisième trimestre 2011 et l’estimation " flash " du PIB du quatrième trimestre.

    Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur des prévisions consensus récentes (Consensus Economics) et sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers à la fin janvier. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 9 février 2012.

    Economic forecasts 2012  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Track record of the FPB’s short-term forecasts : An update 23/02/2012

    Au sein de l’Institut des Comptes Nationaux, le Bureau fédéral du Plan est responsable entre autre de l’élaboration du budget économique, soit le cadre macro-économique servant de base au budget fédéral. Le présent document analyse l’ampleur et les caractéristiques des erreurs de prévisions des principaux agrégats fournis par le budget économique. Il est toutefois important de rappeler qu’une telle évaluation ne peut être considérée comme le test ultime de qualité dans la mesure où d’autres importants critères, comme la cohérence et l’exhaustivité, ne sont pas pris en compte ici. Il ressort de l’analyse que les erreurs de prévisions du budget économique de septembre peuvent être importantes, en particulier au cours de périodes de fortes turbulences économiques. Les prévisions élaborées en février obtiennent de meilleurs scores aux différents tests, ce qui met en évidence l’utilité du contrôle budgétaire. Le document évalue également pour la première fois les prévisions trimestrielles de croissance du PIB et d’inflation. La distribution des erreurs de prévisions est ensuite utilisée pour calculer des intervalles de confiance autour du scénario central. Ces intervalles sont représentés graphiquement sous la forme de bandes de couleurs distinctes et permettent ainsi d’illustrer l’incertitude qui entoure la prévision.

    Working Paper 03-12  Publication(en),

2011

  • Short Term Update 04-11 : Special Topic - Relative performance of Belgian GDP since the onset of the financial crisis 16/12/2011

    Headlines Belgian economy

    The European Union set up the Europe 2020 Strategy as the successor to the Lisbon Strategy to monitor and stimulate structural reform by the Member States. In the first semester of each year (the so-called European Semester), the Member States compile their Stability & Convergence and National Reform Programmes. At the turn of the semester the European Council develops policy recommendations to be implemented, preferably during the second semester. Sound performance on structural issues lays a foundation for healthy potential growth around which the business cycle oscillates.

    Following the calendar of this renewed strategy, the Federal Planning Bureau decided to move the structural performance update – traditionally published in December - to the March issue and adapt the calendar of the business-cycle updates accordingly. The present December issue is, however, a one-off issue exclusively devoted to the system of innovation. Innovation has been recognised in the Europe 2020 strategy as the first of seven ‘flagships’ that should secure smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Innovation should have a positive impact on productivity growth and hence encourage potential GDP growth and employment. Measured in terms of R&D, not more than a few Member States achieve an innovation effort that is comparable to that of the other advanced economies of the world.

    The system of innovation is an assembly of six interlinked dimensions: knowledge development by R&D; human resources; valorisation of R&D, e.g. through patents; innovation absorption capacity within and among enterprises; entrepreneurship; and financing. A good performance on each of the six is needed for a system to perform optimally. This December issue monitors the performance of Belgium on each of the dimensions. Other EU countries, the USA, and Japan serve as a benchmark. The performance seems to be mixed, so efforts are still needed to drive further improvement of the Belgian innovation system as a condition for growth and jobs.

    STU 04-11 was finalised on 16 December 2011.

    Short Term Update 04-11  Publication(en),

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2011 - 2012 / septembre 2011 27/09/2011

    En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 1 des Comptesnationaux 2010 (ʺ Première estimation des comptes annuels ʺ) mais aussi des agrégats trimestriels jusqu’au premier trimestre 2011 et de l’estimation ‘flash’ du PIB du deuxième trimestre.

    Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international, et plus particulièrement la croissance économique des principaux partenaires commerciaux de la Belgique, ont été déterminées sur la base d’indicateurs de confiance (pour le deuxième semestre 2011) et supposent (pour 2012) un retour progressif vers le rythme de croissance trimestrielle présenté dans les perspectives de la Commission européenne publiées en mai. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers au début septembre. Les prévisions pour la  Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 8 septembre 2011.

    Economic forecasts 2011-2012  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Short Term Update 02-11 : Special Topic - What has been the damage of the financial crisis to Belgian economic activity? 21/06/2011

    The new Economic outlook for Belgium for the period 2011-2016 is based on a context that is characterised by a stronger-than-expected recovery of the world economy, spurred on in particular by the Asian emerging economies and the US economy. Three main risks could undermine this international scenario: the budgetary position of several countries and the financial risks that this may entail; the volatility of commodity prices; and the overheating of several emerging economies.

    Belgian GDP growth should amount to 2.2% in 2011 and in 2012, affirming its outperformance compared to the euro area since the start of the crisis. This growth rate should persist in the medium term. In 2011 and 2012, domestic demand growth should accelerate, backed by private consumption and business investment. Public investment should be highly dynamic in the run-up to the local elections of 2012. After an impressive increase in 2010, exports are expected to increase at a slower pace in 2011 and 2012 due to the deceleration in world trade growth. From 2013 onwards, growth in domestic demand and exports should remain close to historical average rates.

    Belgian inflation should accelerate considerably in 2011 (3.5%), mainly due to a steep increase in raw material prices. Without new shocks on commodity prices, inflation should stabilise around 2% in the medium term.

    Belgian employment coped remarkably well with the crisis. The rise in employment in the enterprise sector in 2010 (+27 000 persons) had already compensated for the decline in 2009. This performance seems to be related mainly to the so-called temporary unemployment system and the further increase in the number of people working in the government-subsidised voucher programme for domestic-type services. From 2011 onwards, employment in the enterprise sector should increase by roughly 46 000 persons per year. The number of unemployed should decline by 8 000 units in 2011 and by 3 000 units in 2012, followed by a strengthening in the annual decline in unemployment of up to 16 000 persons in 2016. The unemployment rate (broad administrative definition) should fall from 12.6% of the labour force in 2010 to 11% at the end of the projection period.

    The general government deficit amounted to 4.1% of GDP in 2010 and should shrink to 3.8% of GDP in 2011, taking into account the budget information up to mid-April. Under a constant policy assumption, the public deficit should increase significantly in 2012 (4.4% of GDP) and decline gradually from 2013 onwards to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2016. The deficit reduction path, which aims to achieve a balanced budget in 2015, requires structural consolidation measures amounting to 17 billion euro.

    STU 2-11 was finalised on 1 June 2011.

    Short Term Update 02-11  Publication(en),

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2011 24/02/2011

    En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 2 des Comptes nationaux 2009 (« Comptes détaillés et tableaux ») et des agrégats trimestriels publiés jusqu’au troisième trimestre 2010.

    Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur des prévisions consensus récentes (The Economist) et sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers à la mi‐janvier. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 25 janvier 2011.

    Economic forecasts 2011  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

2010

  • Short Term Update 04-10 : Special topic - The Europe 2020 Strategy: economic forecasts 2010-2020 22/12/2010

    Headlines Belgian Economy

    In October, the FPB prepared an update of its medium-term economic outlook of May 2010. This new outlook covers a longer period (2010-2020) than usual because it was drawn up in the framework of the macroeconomic surveillance process under the Europe 2020 Strategy, with a view to the preparation of the draft Belgian National Reform Programme.

    This new outlook for Belgium is based on an international context that is marked by a recovery that should emerge in 2010-2011 and even gain momentum in the medium term. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts continues to be higher than before the financial crisis. Large budget deficits and global imbalances continue to threaten the stability of worldwide economic growth.

    Yearly Belgian economic growth should amount to approximately 1.8% in 2010 and 2011 (based on our September forecast described in STU 3-10) and fluctuate around 2% thereafter. After a sharp decline in 2009, domestic demand has been expected to rise again in 2010, despite the on-going fall in business investment. As of 2011, domestic demand should rise at an average yearly rate of 1.8% as its various components regain their trend-based growth. Belgian exports, which fell by 11% in 2009, have recovered significantly in 2010. Thereafter, exports should grow at a rate close to its historical average. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be positive for the whole projection period (0.3-0.4 %-points on average for 2012-2020). Employment seems to have already experienced a moderate recovery in 2010.

    Employment should increase further in 2011 and 2012, but at a limited pace as employers try to push up labour productivity and average working time from the historically very low levels that they reached in 2009.  From 2013 to 2015, employment growth should become more sustained before gradually dropping again towards the end of the forecast. Employment as a percentage of the population aged between 20 and 64 years should initially fall from 68% in 2008 to 66.9% in 2010, but should recover to 68.2% in 2015 and 69.8% in 2020, a rate still well below the 75% target set by the EU. Unemployment (broad
    administrative definition) is expected to peak in 2012 at a level that is 103 000 units higher than in 2008. From 2013 onwards, unemployment should slowly decline and reach 591 000 units in 2020.

    The general government budget deficit should shrink from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of GDP in 2010, 4.6% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012. Thereafter, the deficit should remain almost constant up to 2020. A  further and considerable fiscal adjustment is thus necessary to cut back the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 and achieve a balanced budget in 2015 in accordance with the Stability Programme of January 2010.

    STU 04-10 was finalised on 22 December 2010.

    Short Term Update 04-10  Publication(en),

  • Short Term Update 02-10 : Special topic : Follow-up of the wage norm in Belgium 22/06/2010

    The new medium-term outlook for Belgium is based on an international context that is marked by a stronger-than-expected recovery, particularly spurred on by the large Asian emerging economies and the American economy. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts continues to be higher than before the financial crisis. The important budget deficits and global trade and capital flow imbalances continue to threat the stability of worldwide economic growth.

    The yearly growth of the Belgian economy should amount to 1.4% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011 and exceed 2% in 2012-2015. After a sharp decline in 2009, domestic demand should start rising again in 2010, despite the ongoing fall in business investment. As of 2011, domestic demand should rise at an average yearly rate of just above 2% as its various components regain their trend-based growth. Belgian exports, which fell by 11% in 2009, are expected to recover from 2010 onwards. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be largely positive in 2010 (+0.7%-points) and weaken from 2011 onwards (+0.2%-points on average) due to the acceleration in domestic demand.

    Belgian inflation should not exceed 2% on a yearly basis as the limited increase in nominal unit labour costs (average annual growth of 1% during the period 2010-2015) should keep underlying inflation in check. However, this limited increase masks a decline in 2010 followed by a gradual acceleration to 2% in 2015.

    Employment should decline by 33 000 units in 2010 and increase by as little as 7 000 units in 2011. As economic growth accelerates in 2012-2015, employment should expand by nearly 50 000 persons per year on average. Employment as a percentage of the population aged between 20 and 64 years, should initially fall from 68% in 2008 to 66.3% in 2010 but should recover to 67.7% in 2015, a rate still far below the 75% target set by the EU. In 2012, unemployment (broad administrative definition) is expected to peak at a level that is 128 000 units higher than in 2008. From 2013 onwards, unemployment should slowly decline and reach 698 000 units in 2015.

    The general government budget deficit should shrink from 5.9% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of GDP in 2010. However, under the assumption of constant policy, the deficit should again exceed 5% of GDP from 2011 onwards. A further and considerable fiscal adjustment is thus necessary to cut back the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 and achieve a balanced budget in 2015 in accordance with the Stability Programme of January 2010.

    STU 2-10 was finalised on 1 June 2010.

    Short Term Update 02-10  Publication(en),

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2010-2011 10/02/2010

    En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 10 février 2010.

    Economic forecasts 2010-2011 (2)  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

2009

  • Short Term Update 04-09 21/12/2009

    In view of the new round of stability and convergence programmes (SCP) by the EMU member states, the FPB transmitted a medium-term outlook for the Belgian economy to the federal government. In this outlook, the short-term international assumptions are based on the November forecasts of the EC. These assumptions result in a gradual recovery of Belgian GDP in 2010 (0.8%) and 2011 (1.6%), after a decline of 3.1% in 2009. More information on this simulation can be found on pages 5-6.

    As world trade appears to recover at a faster pace than expected in the EC outlook, the FPB produced a technical update of the SCP-simulation. This second simulation results in relatively stronger Belgian economic growth in 2010 and 2011 (1.1% and 1.7% respectively). From 2012 to 2014 economic growth is expected to be 2.1% on average, which might not be sufficient to close the output gap by 2014. Comments in the next paragraphs are based on this exercise.

    Private demand was heavily affected by the financial and economic crisis. Private consumption suffered from a lack of confidence which brought an important increase along in the savings rate in 2009. In the medium term, consumption growth should gradually recover but remain below 2%. Gross fixed capital formation plummeted in 2009 and is unlikely to recover soon as idle production capacity is still abundant. From 2011 to 2014, average investment growth should amount to 2.1%. Exports declined by more than 10% in 2009, but should recover from 2010 onwards and reach an average growth rate of 4.4% from 2011 to 2014.

    As employment typically reacts with a lag to the business cycle, the decrease in employment should even be stronger in 2010 than in 2009, before increasing gradually from 2011 onwards. The (broad administrative) unemployment rate should increase by 2.5 percentage points in 3 years and reach 14.3% in 2011. From 2012 onwards the unemployment rate should diminish somewhat, but total administrative unemployment should still amount to more than 730 000 persons in  2014 (130 000 persons more than in 2008).

    Due to the recession the public deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP in 2009. Under an unchanged policy assumption the net public financing requirement should decline by 0.6% of GDP in 2010 and roughly stabilise somewhat below 5.5% in the medium term.

    STU 04-09 was finalised on 21 December 2009.

    Short Term Update 04-09  Publication(en),

  • Prévisions économiques 2010-2011 08/10/2009

    En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a commu-niqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 1 des Comptes nationaux 2008 (" Première estimation des comptes annuels ") et des agrégats trimestriels publiés jusqu’au premier trimestre 2009.

    Economic forecasts 2010-2011  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • STU 02-09 : Special Topic : The current account, market shares and competitiveness 10/06/2009

    The new medium-term economic outlook for Belgium has been drawn up in an international context that is heavily influenced by the financial crisis and the deep economic recession this has brought about. Belgian GDP should fall by nearly 4% in 2009, followed by zero growth in 2010 as the crisis subsides. In the wake of a worldwide recovery, Belgian GDP growth should start accelerating from 2011 onwards, resulting in average growth for the period 2011-2014 (2.3%) that is similar to the average of the past twenty years. Note that the global economic situation is beset with many uncertainties and, therefore, the outlook is surrounded with considerable risks, especially for the short term.

    Households are expected to raise their precautionary savings dramatically in 2009, thus lowering their consumption compared to last year (-0.6%). Strongly unfavourable demand prospects, combined with a sharp drop in profitability and deteriorated external financing conditions will lead to a sharp contraction in business investment (-7.5%). Domestic demand should recover slightly in 2010 and more markedly from 2011 onwards. The volume of Belgian exports is expected to go down for two years in a row (-8.9% in 2009 and -0.6% in 2010) and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be largely negative. From 2011, Belgian export growth should be close to its historical growth rate (4.8%). After a peak in 2008 (4.5%), the inflation rate should fall to 0.3% on average in 2009. In the medium term, inflation is expected to pick up again, but to remain below 2%.

    The effects on employment of the sudden fall in activity should materialise progressively: domestic employment should drop on average by 37 000 jobs this year and by 53 000 jobs next year. The recovery in 2011 should not be labour-intensive and employment is only expected to increase significantly from 2012 onwards (by a little more than 43 000 jobs a year on average). This evolution of employment, combined with an increase in the labour supply, should lead to a rise in unemployment of 194 000 units from 2009 to 2011. In the next three years, the unemployment rate (broad administrative definition) should go up from 11.8% to 15.2%. As from 2012, the unemployment rate should gradually decrease to reach 14.5% in 2014.

    Under the assumption of constant policy, public sector accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 4.3% of GDP in 2009, widening to 5.6% of GDP in 2010. The end of the recession will not lead to a reduction in the deficit, which should peak at 6.1% of GDP in 2012 before slightly improving afterwards. As a result, Belgian public debt should again experience a snowball effect, going up from 89.3% of GDP in 2008 to 106% of GDP in 2014.

    STU 2-09 was finalised on 27 May 2009

    Short Term Update 02-09  Publication(en),

  • Budget économique - Prévisions économiques 2009 27/02/2009

    En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.

    Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 11 février 2009.

    Economic forecasts 2009 (2)  Publication(fr), Publication(nl),

2008

  • STU 04-08 : Special Topic : The Belgian financial system at the onset of the crisis 11/12/2008

    The FPB has revised its medium-term outlook for 2008-2013 for the Belgian economy. For the 2008-2010 period, the outlook adopts the international economic scenario provided by the OECD outlook of November 2008. The uncertainty surrounding the results is exceptionally large and downside risks could prove to be greater than upside risks. The greatest downside risks include a longer than expected period of distress on financial markets, and that emerging markets could be hit harder than anticipated.

    The outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching only 1.5% during the period 2008-2013 (1.9% for the period 2001-2007). This relatively weak performance is largely explained by weak GDP growth in 2008 (1.4%), a fall in economic growth next year (-0.3%) and a limited recovery in 2010. Over the period 2011-2013, GDP growth is expected to stabilise at a rate slightly above 2%, which might not allow the output gap to be completely closed by the end of the projection.

    After dynamic growth in 2007, private consumption expansion should be much more limited in 2008 and 2009. From 2010 onwards, household demand growth should increase gradually and then stabilise at a rate close to 2%. After dynamic growth in 2008, gross fixed capital formation should slightly decrease in 2009, before recovering in 2010 and increasing by 2.4% on average during the 2011-2013 period. Given the unfavourable international environment next year, exports are expected to decrease in 2009. Over the period 2010-2013, exports should increase by 4.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be slightly positive.

    The worsening of the economic situation should lead to a decrease in employment in 2009. In the medium term, employment should increase again, at a yearly rate reaching 0.8% at the end of the projection. With employment growth heavily affected by the adverse economic situation in the short run and in view of the increase in the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad definition) will soar to 12.9% by 2010 (against 11.9% in 2008), before levelling off at around 13.2% from 2011 onwards. Total administrative unemployment should stand at almost 700,000 persons in 2013 (65,000 persons more than in 2007).

    Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 1.6% of GDP in 2009, 2.4% in 2010 and up to 2.6% in 2011-2013.

    STU 04-08 was finalised on 11 December 2008.

    Short Term Update 04-08  STU 04-08(en),

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