Nieuws
Perscommuniqués
Colloquium
Laatste 5 gegevensbanken
Publicaties
Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.
Growth in Belgium in 1997 turned out significantly better than expected, but some weakening has occurred during the last quarter. The underlying trend in GDP growth should, however, confirm the 2.5% growth forecast for 1998.
The weakening in growth activity at the end of last year is to a large extent due to a significantly lower rate of growth for exports. As has been mentioned in other FPB-publications, the Asia crisis is having a dampening effect on the world and also the Belgian economy. The impact of the Asia crisis will mainly be felt in trade. Export growth will, therefore, continue to be negatively affected by slower growth in world trade. Price competitiveness has, on the other hand, improved considerably during the last two years. All in all, net exports should continue to make a positive contribution to GDP growth, but this contribution will be smaller than in 1997. As the effect of the Asia crisis is expected to be limited to 1998, some increase in growth is again expected in 1999 with GDP growth of 2.8%.
Domestic demand and particularly private consumption have continued to show a marked improvement. The consumer confidence index, strengthened by the creation of considerable employment opportunities, somewhat higher wage increases and good news concerning public finance, points to sustained consumer growth during the first quarters of 1998.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of 2.6% over the next five years. But even with this rate of growth and moderate wage increases in accordance with the 1996 Framework Law, unemployment is likely to remain above the 1990 level. The growth in employment is estimated at around 0.75% per year and the supply of labour would increase by 0.2% per year.
The general government borrowing requirement should continue to show a gradual decrease and become a surplus from 2002 onwards in an “unchanged policy” scenario. The primary surplus should remain close to 6% from 1997 to 2000 and should increase again from then on. The debt ratio and interest burden are clearly decreasing.
Consumer price inflation should remain at 1.1% this year and show only a slight increase next year. If there are no external shocks and if wages continue to be constrained by the Competitiveness Law, there are few reasons why price stability should be threatened in future. Nominal interest rates should remain low.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-98 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-98 (nl),
Vooruitzichten - Economic Forecasts 1998 C (fr), (nl),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 84 (fr), (nl),
An improvement in the most recent economic indicators and a better outlook for the European economy have prompted the FPB to revise its growth forecasts. GDP is now expected to grow by 2.4% in 1997 and 2.7% in 1998, compared to the previous forecasts of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively.
Higher growth rates are forecast for domestic as well as external demand. The revision, however, is mainly based on external factors. Exporters are benefiting with a certain time lag from a stronger USD and UKP. The combined expected depreciation of the BEF over 1997-98 is now 4.5%. As it concerns essentially a depreciation of the currencies of the whole DEM-zone, not only Belgian exporters benefit from this, but the impact on the economies of the other continental European countries is also positive. This, in turn, improves market opportunities for Belgian exporters.
The recent import price increases are linked to the exchange rate evolution. Consumer price inflation, however, remains subdued and is expected to amount to 1.65% in 1997 and 1.7% in 1998. The recent and expected rises in short term interest rates on the European continent should not have a significant effect on economic activity.
There are a few small signs of an improving labour market. In 1998, employment should increase by 44,000, taking into account specific programmes targeting unemployed people. This should therefore lead to increased private consumption and higher tax receipts.
The macroeconomic impact of the 1998-Budget is small. The government deficit should be well below 3% of GDP in 1997 and 1998. The deficit figures of 2.5% and 2.3% for 1997 and 1998 respectively, announced by the FPB in April, should be achieved without difficulty. The expected economic growth and the measures set out in the 1998-Budget should even enable the deficit to be reduced further.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-97 (en),
Vooruitzichten - Economic Forecasts 1998 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-97 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-97 (nl),
In het kader van het debat over de inkrimping van het overheidstekort in België, werden verschillende technische varianten gesimuleerd met betrekking tot een vermindering van de primaire uitgaven of een verhoging van de overheidsinkomsten.
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 78 (fr), (nl),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 75 (fr), (nl),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 74 (mix),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 76 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 72 (mix),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 69 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 71 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning paper 67 (nl),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 65 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 63 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 59 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 55 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 52 (fr), (nl),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 48 (fr), (nl),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 44 (nl),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 24 (fr),
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 17 (nl),