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Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-10 (fr),
In de loop van het voorbije decennium heeft België uitvoermarktaandelen op het gebied van industrieproducten verloren. De opsplitsing van dat verlies gebeurt met behulp van de methode ‘Constant Market Shares Analysis’. Die opsplitsing toont vooral een structurele zwakte: de geografische oriëntatie van de Belgische uitvoer is zeer ongunstig en leidt tot het verlies van marktaandelen. De gunstige productspecialisatie kan dit verlies slechts gedeeltelijk compenseren. Bovendien komt daar ook een gematigd verlies van concurrentiekracht bij.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-10 (fr),
This paper investigates the relationship between the relative positions, in terms of value added and relative prices, of Belgian manufacturing and market services in the European Union over 1970-2005. Relative prices are then broken down into relative unit costs of production factors. The analysis goes further by decomposing relative unit labour cost into relative hourly wages and relative productivity. Finally, relative productivity is broken down into relative capital deepening, relative labour composition effect and relative total factor productivity.
Artikels - Article 2009100605
Dit document omvat een grafische en econometrische analyse van het verband tussen de relatieve positie van de Belgische verwerkende nijverheid en van de Belgische marktdiensten, op het vlak van toegevoegde waarde en prijzen, in de EU-15 over de periode 1970-2005. De relatieve prijzen worden opgesplitst in relatieve kosten van de productiefactoren. Vervolgens worden de relatieve arbeidskosten per eenheid product vervangen door de relatieve uurlonen en de relatieve productiviteit. Tot slot wordt de relatieve productiviteit vervangen door haar componenten, namelijk de relatieve kapitaalintensiteit, het relatieve effect van samenstelling van de arbeidskrachten en de relatieve totale factorproductiviteit. De gebruikte gegevens zijn afkomstig van de EUKLEMS -databank in de versie van maart 2008.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-09 (en),
Worries about massive job losses have prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This paper examines the situation for Belgium. The offshoring intensity is computed as the share of imported intermediate inputs in output, based on a series of constant price supply- and-use tables for 1995-2003. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities, do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003, but this does not preclude a differential impact by skill-level.
Artikels - Article 2009030203
In de context van een toenemende economische globalisering, doet delokalisatie de vrees voor een massaal banenverlies in de industrielanden aanwakkeren. Deze Working Paper evalueert de situatie in België met een onderzoek naar de impact van delokalisatie ('offshoring') op de werkgelegenheid in ons land tijdens de periode 1995-2003. De offshoring-intensiteit wordt gemeten door het aandeel van de intermediaire invoer in de productie. Dat aandeel wordt berekend voor goederen - om de delokalisatie van industriële activiteiten te meten - en voor diensten - om de delokalisatie van dienstverleningsactiviteiten aan ondernemingen te meten. De intensiteit is duidelijk hoger voor goederen (13 % in 2003) dan voor diensten (2% en 2003), wat de traditionele gerichtheid van delokalisatie op industriële activiteiten bevestigt. Tussen 1995 en 2003 was de toename van de delokalisatie van dienstverleningsactiviteiten evenwel sterker dan die van industriële activiteiten. De impact op de werkgelegenheid wordt geraamd met behulp van arbeidsvraagvergelijkingen die deze offshoring-intensiteit integreren. Uit de resultaten blijkt dat, noch de delokalisatie van industriële activiteiten, noch die van de dienstverleningsactiviteiten, een significante impact heeft op de totale werkgelegenheid in België tijdens de periode 1995-2003, maar dit sluit niet uit dat de impact voor elk scholingsniveau verschillend is.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-09 (en),
Het Federaal Planbureau ontwikkelde de BELMOFI-databank met informatie over de buitenlandse filialen van Belgische ondernemingen. In deze Working Paper worden de gegevens van 2005 bestudeerd en vergeleken met het jaar 1995.
Working Papers - Working Paper 23-08 (nl),
Sommige economen wijzen op het feit dat bepaalde taken die door hooggeschoolden worden uitgevoerd, maar waarbij veel gebruik wordt gemaakt van informatie- en communicatietechnologie (ICT) en waarvoor relatief weinig persoonlijk contact nodig is, redelijk makkelijk kunnen worden uitbesteed aan bedrijven in het buitenland. Informaticaspecialisten, accountants, radiologen en andere beroepen die een redelijk hoog scholingsniveau vereisen zouden hierdoor meer concurrentie uit lageloonlanden ondervinden dan bijvoorbeeld horecapersoneel, schoonmakers, beveiligingspersoneel en andere beroepen die persoonlijke diensten verlenen zonder hoge diplomavereisten. Deze visie impliceert dat het verband tussen het scholingsniveau en de evolutie van lonen en werkgelegenheid niet eenduidig is. Het Federaal Planbureau heeft een analyse gemaakt waarin wordt nagegaan in welke mate het scholingsniveau en de beroepscategorie van werknemers de evolutie van lonen en tewerkstellingskansen verklaren.
Working Papers - Working Paper 22-08 (en),
In het kader van de toenemende economische mondialisering vormt delokalisatie het onderwerp van een levendig debat dat zowel ingaat op de oorzaken en de omvang ervan als op de gevolgen voor industrielanden zoals België. Deze studie van het Federaal Planbureau wil op twee manieren bijdragen tot dit debat: er wordt een updating gegeven van de definitie van het begrip delokalisatie (‘offshoring’ in het Engels) en er worden, aan de hand van de statistieken van de buitenlandse handel voor België, een reeks indicatoren aangereikt om het fenomeen indirect te meten.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-08 (en),
The present paper follows up on the longstanding tradition of analysing trends in relocation or offshoring at the Federal Planning Bureau. Replicating and extending a method developed by the OECD, it provides a rough estimate for Belgium of the proportion of service jobs at risk of being offshored in the wake of information and communication technology (ICT) developments, and compares the results for Belgium with results for the EU15 and the US. Occupational employment data from the Labour Force Survey are used to produce this estimate by identifying service jobs that could possibly be offshored due to ICT-enabled tradability.
Artikels - Article 2007051801
This paper provides a rough estimate for Belgium of the proportion of service jobs at risk of being offshored in the wake of ICT-developments, and compares the results for Belgium with results for the EU15 and the US. Occupational employment data from the Labour Force Survey are used to produce this estimate by identifying service jobs that could possibly be offshored due to ICT-enabled tradability. The results show that the share of such jobs is lower for Belgium than for the EU15 or the US, but that there is an upward trend in this share over the period 1993 to 2005. Industry-level data and a shift-and-share analysis are used to explain the results.
Working Papers - Working paper 06-07 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-05 (fr), (nl),
The aim of this paper is to analyse the trends between 1991 and 2001 in the world export market shares of the bleu and a sample of other countries including among others the Member States of the European Union (eu). For this purpose, we apply Constant Market Shares Analysis (cmsa) to changes in the world export market shares of those countries for the subperiods 1991/1997 and 1997/2001.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-05 (en),
The latest update of the FPB’s medium-term outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching 2.3% during the 2004-2009 period. This development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand, whereas the role of (net) exports is expected to be more limited. As in 2003, private consumption should evolve in quite a dynamic way during the projection period (1.9% on average), mainly as a result of an expansion of households’ disposable income. At the same time, gross fixed capital formation (and particularly business investment) should recover, with annual growth reaching 3%. The structural loss of export market share should be confirmed with exports increasing by 5.3% a year on average, compared with growth of 6.3% of our potential export markets.
Inflation should remain slightly below 2% in the medium term, mainly thanks to limited wage increases and moderate rises in imported costs. Employment is expected to increase by about 32,000 jobs a year during the 2005-2009 period. This performance can be explained by several factors: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. At the same time, the working population should rise considerably. As a consequence, despite the creation of many jobs, the fall in the unemployment rate should be very limited.
The FPB’s October update of the medium term outlook for Belgium does not yet take into account the measures decided within the framework of the 2005 budget.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-04 (en),
The medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards a GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2004-2009 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.0%). This favourable development is due to both net exports and domestic demand. Private consumption should become more dynamic during the 2005-2009 period, particularly thanks to the increase in households’ disposable income (especially due to tax reforms and increases in employment and social benefits). Investment growth should attain 2.9% during the 2004-2009 period, mainly reflecting the increase in business investment. After ini-tially accelerating in 2004, average export growth should be 5.4% and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be 0.2%. Thanks to limited increases in wages and import costs and a negative output gap during the first few years of the projection, the inflation rate will remain below 2% in the medium term.
The development of employment should reflect the favourable macroeconomic context, the limited in-creases in wage costs and various policy measures. After net losses in 2002 and 2003 and the creation of almost 9,000 jobs in 2004, about 30,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2005-2009 period. Industrial employment should fall by 44,000 persons during the 2004-2009 period and the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 200,000. Nevertheless, given the increase in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age class) the number of unemployed will barely decrease at all. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) is still increasing in 2004 (from 14.1% to 14.4%), but will subsequently fall to 13.5% in 2009.
The public accounts are expected to show a clear deterioration, with a net public sector borrowing re-quirement appearing in 2004 and widening to 1.4% in 2006 before gradually declining to 0.7% by the end of the projection period.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-04 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-04 (fr),
De Working Paper ‘Filialen van Belgische ondernemingen in het buitenland: De belmofi-databank.’ beschrijft hoe de belmofi-databank werd geactualiseerd. De databank belmofi (de in BELgië gevestigde Multinationale Ondernemingen en hun FIlialen in het buitenland) bevat de filialen van Belgische ondernemingen die in het buitenland gevestigd zijn. In het kader van dit onderzoek werd meer in het bijzonder gepeild naar de aanwezigheid van de Belgische filialen in ontwikkelingslanden.
Working Papers - Working Paper 22-03 (nl),
This overview of the literature dedicated to the new economic geography intends to highlight the main mechanisms, which contribute to explain the spatial concentration of economic activity, in particular the formation of cities and industrial districts. This should provide some guidelines for an empirical analysis of the determinants of the spatial distribution of economic activity in urban areas in Belgium and for suggestions of economic policy instruments capable of influencing location choices.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-02 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-01 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-01 (nl),
After a period of rapid expansion during 1999 and the first half of 2000, a clear worldwide slowdown was recorded in the second half of 2000. Current forecasts are assuming that world trade will recover in the second half of 2001. In line with this international scenario (lower growth, higher inflation), economic growth in Belgium has been revised downwards to 2.4% (compared to 2.8% in the economic budget last February). GDP growth next year should reach 2.8%, driven by stronger growth in exports and domestic demand.
In addition to the impact of the recovery of international trade, activity in 2002 should be fuelled by various internal factors boosting private consumption, such as wage and employment increases, the indexation of wages and social benefits above consumer price growth and personal income tax reform.
Domestic employment should rise by around 40,000 persons in 2001 and 45,000 in 2002, leading to a new improvement in the employment rate. Nevertheless, the impact on unemployment will be smaller, given the forecast increase in the labour force.
Inflation should be significantly lower in 2002 than in 2001 (1.5% as against 2.4% for consumer prices), thanks to a small decrease in energy prices, the stabilization of the euro exchange rate and lower prices for food products. The impact on inflation of the conversion of prices into euro is uncertain and any changes, should mainly be seen in 2001.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 03-01 (en),
Belgian exports will be hit this year by the deceleration in world economic growth, which was already reflected by the net slowdown in world import demand at the end of last year. Even when taking into account the expected recovery in world trade from the second half of 2001 onwards, growth in Belgian export markets should significantly ease back. Moreover, the appreciation of the euro will reduce the price competitiveness of Belgian exports and would lead to loss of market share. As a result, the positive contribution towards real economic growth from external trade will decline.
Nevertheless, domestic demand should remain robust in 2001. Business investment should benefit from a rise in firms’ profitability due to the gain from the terms of trade (because of lower oil prices and the appreciation of the BEF). Private consumption will be sustained by substantial growth in household’s real disposable income as the expected deceleration in inflation will allow to regain part of the loss of purchasing power in 2000. Furthermore, households’ disposable income will also be supported by some personal tax cuts. Although the deterioration in the business cycle will lower the pace of employment growth, the higher labour-intensiveness, that has been observed during the last three years, will still give rise to a favorable employment outcome.
All in all, Belgian GDP is expected to decelerate from 3.9% in 2000 to 2.8% this year and to be less export-led than last year.
Taking into account the 2001 Budget and the macro-economic outlook presented above, and including the expected revenues from the UMTS licences (0.2% of GDP), the general government budget balance is expected to move from equilibrium in 2000 to a small surplus in 2001 (about 0.7% of GDP).
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 01-01 (en),
Andere publicaties - Relocation 2000 - Summary (en), (fr), (nl),
Andere publicaties - Relocation 2000 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-00 (en),
Federaal Planbureau
