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Publicaties

Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.

Documents (1085)

1998

  • STU 03-98 : Special Topic - Declining replacement rates in the legal pension scheme for wage-earners 16/07/1998

    Belgian GDP grew by 2.9% in 1997. GDP growth should hardly be reduced this and next year: the FPB expects a growth rate of 2.8% in 1998 and 2.6% in 1999.

    So far, the FPB expected the negative impact of the Asian crisis to be neutralised by a more dynamic domestic demand. While exports do actually slow down, it seems that domestic demand more than compensates for this.

    The good figures for domestic demand in 1998 concern mainly private consumption. They are influenced by the concentrated purchases of cars after the biannual Motor Show but also by a number of other special factors positively affecting household disposable income. These will not be present in 1999 so that smaller growth rates for real disposable income as well as private consumption are expected.

    Employment creation should contribute substantially to the income growth of households during 1998 and 1999. For both years, employment should increase by about 45,000 people (or about 1.2%), which is considerable compared to the past seven years.

    About a quarter of the job creation can be attributed to special programmes, which are mainly taking place in enterprises. Moreover, wage moderation, as well as further cuts in employers’ contributions to social security contribute to a more labour-intensive growth and an improvement of competitiveness.

    The business investment rate should continue to climb, but remains relatively low compared to the end of the 80's.

    The wage evolution in 1999 remains dependent on the “Wage norm”. Wage moderation in the neighbouring countries constraints the wage evolution in Belgium. Gross hourly wages in the private sector are expected to increase by 1.2% in real terms in 1999. The risk of wage inflation is therefore limited, even though labour market shortages could emerge.

    Somewhat stronger import price increases and a slightly positive output gap lead to a small rise in the inflation rates in 1999 (1.3%, compared to 1.1% in 1998). Interest rates should also slightly increase in the Euro zone as well as in Belgium.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 03-98  Publication(en),

  • STU 02-98 : Special Topic - Explaining consumer price inflation 28/05/1998

    Growth in Belgium in 1997 turned out significantly better than expected, but some weakening has occurred during the last quarter. The underlying trend in GDP growth should, however, confirm the 2.5% growth forecast for 1998.

    The weakening in growth activity at the end of last year is to a large extent due to a significantly lower rate of growth for exports. As has been mentioned in other FPB-publications, the Asia crisis is having a dampening effect on the world and also the Belgian economy. The impact of the Asia crisis will mainly be felt in trade. Export growth will, therefore, continue to be negatively affected by slower growth in world trade. Price competitiveness has, on the other hand, improved considerably during the last two years. All in all, net exports should continue to make a positive contribution to GDP growth, but this contribution will be smaller than in 1997. As the effect of the Asia crisis is expected to be limited to 1998, some increase in growth is again expected in 1999 with GDP growth of 2.8%.

    Domestic demand and particularly private consumption have continued to show a marked improvement. The consumer confidence index, strengthened by the creation of considerable employment opportunities, somewhat higher wage increases and good news concerning public finance, points to sustained consumer growth during the first quarters of 1998.

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of 2.6% over the next five years. But even with this rate of growth and moderate wage increases in accordance with the 1996 Framework Law, unemployment is likely to remain above the 1990 level. The growth in employment is estimated at around 0.75% per year and the supply of labour would increase by 0.2% per year.

    The general government borrowing requirement should continue to show a gradual decrease and become a surplus from 2002 onwards in an “unchanged policy” scenario. The primary surplus should remain close to 6% from 1997 to 2000 and should increase again from then on. The debt ratio and interest burden are clearly decreasing.

    Consumer price inflation should remain at 1.1% this year and show only a slight increase next year. If there are no external shocks and if wages continue to be constrained by the Competitiveness Law, there are few reasons why price stability should be threatened in future. Nominal interest rates should remain low.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-98  Publication(en),

  • STU 01-98 : Special Topic - Changes in the Wage Wedge over the Past 15 Years 08/03/1998

    As compared with the November forecast, the FPB now expects GDP to grow by 2.7% in 1997 (instead of 2.4%) and by 2.5% in 1998 (instead of 2.7%).

    The Belgian economic situation has been affected by the world economy in two entirely different ways. On the one hand the Asia crisis has had a dampening effect on exports and on the outlook for business profitability. It is estimated that its impact will be 0.4% of GDP in 1998. On the other hand, the European economy in general, and the Belgian economy in particular, has recently shown signs of an upturn in domestic demand.

    Activity growth turned out better than expected in 1997. The appreciation of the US dollar and UK pound meant that foreign trade contributed strongly to economic growth. Private consumption was higher than forecast. The NBB survey indicators for foreign order books would seem to show that exports may experience a lower rate of growth in the quarters to come, partly because of declining growth in world trade as a result of the Asian crisis.

    It is increasingly likely that the growth in GDP for 1998 will be more balanced. The contribution of exports should diminish while domestic demand should gain in strength. This trend was already apparent in the second half of last year.

    Consumer price inflation was 1.6% in 1997. This year, even a lower inflation rate seems likely. The underlying inflation rate has hovered around 1.25% in 1997, although import price inflation was about 4.5%. For 1998 CPI inflation is estimated at 1.2%, and the “health-index” should increase by 1.3%.

    The impact of activity on employment in 1997 is still difficult to assess. The FPB estimates the increase in domestic employment at 0.6%. The impact on unemployment figures has been slight, due to higher participation rates. Employment should rise in 1998 by some 33,000 (or 0.9%), leading to a small fall in the unemployment rate. A proportion of the growth in employment can be attributed to specific employment programmes.

    The better than expected economic performance should result in a lower general government deficit of around 2% of GDP in 1997. Due to lower interest rates and a declining debt ratio, there should be a further reduction in interest payments in 1998.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 01-98  Publication(en),

1997

  • STU 02-97 : Special Topic - Labor costs in industry and market services 05/11/1997

    An improvement in the most recent economic indicators and a better outlook for the European economy have prompted the FPB to revise its growth forecasts. GDP is now expected to grow by 2.4% in 1997 and 2.7% in 1998, compared to the previous forecasts of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively.

    Higher growth rates are forecast for domestic as well as external demand. The revision, however, is mainly based on external factors. Exporters are benefiting with a certain time lag from a stronger USD and UKP. The combined expected depreciation of the BEF over 1997-98 is now 4.5%. As it concerns essentially a depreciation of the currencies of the whole DEM-zone, not only Belgian exporters benefit from this, but the impact on the economies of the other continental European countries is also positive. This, in turn, improves market opportunities for Belgian exporters.

    The recent import price increases are linked to the exchange rate evolution. Consumer price inflation, however, remains subdued and is expected to amount to 1.65% in 1997 and 1.7% in 1998. The recent and expected rises in short term interest rates on the European continent should not have a significant effect on economic activity.

    There are a few small signs of an improving labour market. In 1998, employment should increase by 44,000, taking into account specific programmes targeting unemployed people. This should therefore lead to increased private consumption and higher tax receipts.

    The macroeconomic impact of the 1998-Budget is small. The government deficit should be well below 3% of GDP in 1997 and 1998. The deficit figures of 2.5% and 2.3% for 1997 and 1998 respectively, announced by the FPB in April, should be achieved without difficulty. The expected economic growth and the measures set out in the 1998-Budget should even enable the deficit to be reduced further.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-97  Publication(en),

  • Verkenning van de financiële evolutie van de Sociale Zekerheid tot 2050 01/11/1997

    Heel wat Europese landen zullen binnenkort te lijden hebben onder de vergrijzing van de bevolking als gevolg van twee factoren: een lagere vruchtbaarheid en een hogere levensverwachting. Die twee ontwikkelingen samen zouden in de toekomst leiden tot een belangrijke toename van de afhankelijkheidscoëfficiënt van de ouderen (in België zou deze van 39 percent in 1995 oplopen tot 67 percent in 2050).

    Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 83  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • De vergrijzing van de bevolking : Over de analyse van de bevolkingsevolutie en het gevaar voor overhaaste conclusies 01/11/1997

    Door haar omvang, haar structuur en haar evolutie vormt de bevolking een wezenlijk element van een groot aantal probleemstellingen aangaande het economische, sociale en politieke leven.

    Daarom is het beschikken over voldoende kennis over de bevolking absoluut noodzakelijk wanneer men op oordeelkundige wijze een beleid wil voeren. Vele beleidmaatregelen houden trouwens vaak verband met de diverse fasen in het leven van de mens. Het aantal jongeren zal een weerslag hebben op de behoeften inzake kinderopvang, schoolinfrastructuur en pedagogische omkadering. De generaties van jonge volwassenen zullen de ingaande stromen op de arbeidsmarkt en het belang van het aanbod van arbeidskrachten bepalen, maar ook de behoefte aan woningen en communicatiemiddelen. De ouderen zullen de arbeidsmarkt verlaten en de groep van gepensioneerden vormen.

    De samenstelling van de bevolking naar leeftijd en geslacht heeft zowel een invloed op de overheidsontvangsten via de samenhang met de inkomens, het patrimonium, de consumptie en het sparen, als op de uitgaven aangaande het gezinsbeleid, het onderwijs, de werkgelegenheid, de huisvesting, de communicatie, de vrijetijd, de begeleiding van ouderen.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 81  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Veertig jaar arbeidsduurontwikkeling in België 01/09/1997

    Inleiding Sedert 1971 gebruikt het Federaal Planbureau, in het kader van de steeds terugkerende middellangetermijnprojecties, een aantal gegevens inzake de ontwikkeling van de arbeidsduur in België. Te dien einde werden systematisch statistische inlichtingen, waarvan sommige teruggaan tot 1955, ingewonnen.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 80  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Budgettaire kost van een werkloze, van 1983 tot 1997 01/09/1997

    Toen in de loop van de jaren ’70 de werkloosheidscijfers in de meeste industrielanden hoog opliepen, werden talrijke studies gewijd aan de kosten die dit fenomeen met zich meebrengt voor het individu, de overheid, de economie en de gemeenschap.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 79  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

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