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Publicaties

Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.

Documents (90)

2008

  • Recent evolution of the welfare adjustment of social security benefits 07/03/2008

    Social benefits are adjusted according to increases in the level of prices and are also adjusted – rather irregularly – to the general evolution of welfare. These welfare adjustments can apply to various elements of social legislation or parameters of social policy: the benefit amount, the ceilings used to calculate the benefits, etc. The Act of 23 December 2005 providing for a Solidarity Pact between the Generations establishes a structural mechanism of welfare adjustment for social benefits. The Working Paper analyses the main characteristics of the mechanism and the details of its implementation. It assesses the budgetary effects of the measures that have been taken within this framework and compares the benefit adjustments that have been carried out over recent years with wage growth. Finally, two alternative scenarios of benefit adjustment policy are examined.

    Artikels - Article 2008030703  

  • Budget surpluses to face population ageing: the reality and the prospects 07/03/2008

    The Working Paper looks at the strategy that has been implemented in Belgium since the beginning of the decade to finance the future increase in public spending due to population ageing. This strategy is laid down in the Stability Programmes and in the Ageing Act and is supported by a broad social and political consensus. It implies building up budget surpluses, which has not been done so far. The paper analyses the long-term effects of such a situation, for example as regards the trade-off between the various policies that could be implemented to face the budgetary challenges posed by ageing populations.

    Artikels - Article 2008030702  

  • Estimating private health expenditures within a dynamic consumption allocation model 07/03/2008

     In the health economics literature, it is customary to model total (private and public) aggregate health expenditures as a function of income, demographic ageing and a host of other variables. Private health expenditures are rarely modelled separately and if they are, the models are often based on individual data and limited to specific medical services such as physician visits. In this paper we specify a model of aggregate private health expenditures, embedded in a generalisation of Deaton & Muellbauer’s Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The main advantage of specifying a complete demand system is that all household consumption decisions, including the ones about the use of health care services, are subject to the same budget restriction.

    Artikels - Article 2008030701  

2007

  • An analysis of recent measures concerning the pension scheme for the self-employed 10/12/2007

    The Generation Pact and, before that, the Councils of  ministers held in Gembloux and Ostend, have led to  adjustments in the pension scheme for self-employed  workers: an increase in the minimum pension, welfare  adjustments (including the “welfare bonus”), a pension  bonus and adjustment of pension penalties (“malus”).  The MoSES model  as used to estimate the budgetary  cost of these reforms and to assess their impact on the  average pension benefit for the self-employed. The  Working Paper first gives a general survey of the model  and its new functionalities (some of which have been  specially developed in order to model the new measures)  and presents the results of the simulations.

    Artikels - Article 2007121004  

  • Qualitative employment multipliers for Belgium, results for 2000 and 2002 10/12/2007

    This paper introduces the notion of qualitative employment  multipliers. For each final demand product, a set of  employment multipliers was computed. Each of these  gives the  use of an employment type characterised by  gender, age class, professional status, education level  or labour regime. The paper describes a method for  compiling qualitative employment multipliers and shows  results based on disaggregated employment and input  output data for 2000 and 2002.

    Artikels - Article 2007121003  

  • Belgium’s energy future challenged by climate change 10/12/2007

    Every three years, the Federal Planning Bureau  releases a publication on the long-term energy projections  for Belgium, based on the energy model PRIMES.  This Planning Paper is the third in the series and puts the  emphasis on the link with climate change. Amongst  other things, a baseline and a selection of emission  reduction scenarios for the period after 2012 are  described.

    Artikels - Article 2007121002  

  • Accelerating the transition towards sustainable development 10/12/2007

    The publication of the fourth Federal Report on sustainable  development implements the Belgian Act of 5 May  1997 on the Coordination of Federal Sustainable Development  Policy. This Act institutes a strategic process of  reporting, planning, implementation and monitoring in  order to introduce these policies in Belgium at the federal  level. This report proposes two long term (2050)  sustainable development scenarios and assesses the  existing situation, including the current policy on sustainable  development.

    Artikels - Article 2007121001  

  • Unemployment benefits and the long-term effectiveness of labour tax cuts 05/10/2007

    If unemployment benefits are indexed to gross wages and the replacement rate between unemployment benefits and net wages affects the wage rate, then cutting taxes falling on the supply of labour (personal income taxes or employees' social-security contributions) increases employment more than reducing taxes falling on the demand for labour (employers' social-security contributions).

    Artikels - Article 2007100506  

  • Belgium's NRP - Macroeconomic effects of reducing the tax wedge on labour 05/10/2007

    Every three years, each EU Member State is required to set out its political priorities related to economic growth and job creation in a so-called National Reform Programme (NRP). The 2005-2008 programme prepared by the Belgian authorities proposes six lines of action for boosting growth and employment. For each of these lines of action, one or two quantitative objectives have been set out. In this working paper we compare the main macroeconomic objectives contained in the Belgian NRP with the results of the latest medium-term economic outlook produced by the Federal Planning Bureau. This no-policy-change scenario also serves as a baseline for analysing the effects on the main macroeconomic objectives of the government of a further reduction in social security contributions in order to ease the tax wedge on labour as foreseen in the NRP.

    Artikels - Article 2007100504  

  • Recent research regarding Belgian exports and export market growth 05/10/2007

    This working paper gives an overview of recent research aimed at refining forecasts and analysis of Belgian foreign trade. Regarding export markets, a new leading indicator is introduced as an additional tool for assessing the growth profile for Belgium's potential export markets in the first quarters to be forecast. With respect to exports, an analysis is made concerning the considerable and partly unexplained loss of export market share in recent years. It appears that (a lack of) competitiveness plays an important role in the evolution of Belgium's export market share, but it cannot explain it entirely.

    Artikels - Article 2007100503  

  • Regionalisation of long-term energy projections for Belgium (horizon 2030) 05/10/2007

    In 2004, the Federal Planning Bureau has published two reports on long-term energy projections. They describe long-term energy projections for Belgium, but do not provide results on the level of the three Belgian regions (Flemish, Walloon and Brussels Capital). Since some major responsibilities in the field of energy have been regionalised, an insight into regional energy projections seems to be indispensable. The regions not only have to prepare an energy policy plan for the short term, but also have to come up with an energy plan that overlooks a more elaborate time horizon. At the request of theregions, the Federal Planning Bureau therefore embarked on a regionalisation of the energy scenarios described in the two cited reports, the results of which can be found in two working papers: one describing the results for the Flemish Region, the other the Region of Brussels Capital.

    Artikels - Article 2007100502  

  • A Medium-Term Outlook for the World Economy: 2007-2013 05/10/2007

    The August 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic outlook for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Federal Planning Bureau's macroeconometric world model.

    Artikels - Article 2007100501  

  • An accuracy assessment of FPB’s medium-term projections 18/05/2007

    The economic outlook for the Belgian economy is published each year by the Federal Planning Bureau in spring and presented to the representatives of the social partners within the Central Economic Council. This baseline is a no-policy-change scenario, notably with regard to fiscal and social policies, that is based upon an international environment founded on projections prepared by international institutions. In this working paper past projection errors are scrutinised to give users a broad idea of the precision of the projections and also to identify possible methodological weaknesses that should be improved.

    Artikels - Article 2007051802  

  • Potential ICT-enabled Offshoring of Service Jobs in Belgium 18/05/2007

    The present paper follows up on the longstanding tradition of analysing trends in relocation or offshoring at the Federal Planning Bureau. Replicating and extending a method developed by the OECD, it provides a rough estimate for Belgium of the proportion of service jobs at risk of being offshored in the wake of information and communication technology (ICT) developments, and compares the results for Belgium with results for the EU15 and the US. Occupational employment data from the Labour Force Survey are used to produce this estimate by identifying service jobs that could possibly be offshored due to ICT-enabled tradability.

    Artikels - Article 2007051801  

  • Energy policy and the climate issue: a challenge for Belgium 06/03/2007

    This paper sheds light on several challenges related to the development of the energy system in Belgium up to 2050, taking into account constraints on the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) in a European context. It is based on two studies carried out by the Federal Planning Bureau in 2006 that deal with the related energy and climate change issues.

    Artikels - Article 2007030602  

  • The NIME model of the World economy 13/02/2007

    The NIME model is a macroeconometric world model developed by economists at the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau. The model is used to make medium-term projections for the international economy, as well as to study the transmission mechanisms of economic policies and exogenous shocks.

    Artikels - The NIME model of the World Economy  

2006

  • Simulating the impact of the pension bonus on the financial implications of working longer 18/12/2006

    In 2005, the federal government presented the ‘Generation Pact’, containing a number of measures designed to strengthen the financial sustainability of the Belgian system of social security in the light of demographic ageing. One of these measures, the introduction of a pension bonus, is designed to encourage older workers to postpone retirement. This working paper discusses the effect of this bonus on the financial consequences of retirement simulated for four fictitious older workers, representing various types of workers.

    Artikels - WP 11-06  

  • The Lisbon Strategy: structural policy in Europe and Belgium 18/12/2006

    The Lisbon Strategy has been launched by the European Council to promote long-term economic growth under the conditions of sufficient social and environmental protection. It builds on three pillars: the macroeconomic, the microeconomic and the labour market pillar. In this planning paper the microeconomic pillar and its implementation in Belgium is reviewed. The paper consists of four chapters, each covering a specific theme that concerns the microeconomic pillar.

    Artikels - Article 2006121801  

  • Fiscal councils, independent forecasts and the budgetary process: lessons from the Belgian case 06/10/2006

    This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils - the High Council of Finance and the National Accounts Institute - as well as their role in the budgetary planning process and emphasizes the part taken by the FPB in producing independent macroeconomic forecasts. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings.

    Artikels - WP 04-06  

  • Linking household income to macro data to project poverty indicators 06/10/2006

    This paper presents the results of a micro simulation model designed to make short-term projections of poverty indicators. The unit of observation in the model is the household. In order to project the evolution of household incomes over time, we have specified a model that links the total observed household income to the evolution of a set of macro income indicators that reflect the different ‘micro’ sources of income.

    Artikels - WP 05-06  

  • R&D Tax incentives in Belgium 06/10/2006

    In Belgium, as well as in other European countries, the use of R&D tax incentives has become more popular in recent years. It remains, however, important to evaluate the effectiveness of those new and existing measures.

    Artikels - WP 06-06  

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