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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
The Federal Planning Bureau's econometric model HERMES will be used to calculate the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of each political party's set of priority measures over the next legislature. This working paper summarises the characteristics of the model and describes its structure and main transmission mechanisms. It then illustrates the functioning of the model using several economic policy variants. Finally, this working paper describes the procedure for constructing the reference scenario and presents the main results of the June 2023 economic outlook. Those forecasts constitute the prefiguration of the reference scenario which will be published in February 2024, covering the period 2024-2029.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_04 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-22 (fr), (nl),
The "first recruitments"measure aims to promote employment while supporting small businesses and start-ups. The analysis shows that the measure has a positive but modest impact on the probability of survival of young businesses. Furthermore, the reinforcement in 2016 does not appear to have generated any additional benefit. On the one hand, these results imply that the strengthening of the measure does not address a genuine need on the part of the recipients. On the other hand, the reinforcement may have encouraged more employers to undertake a risky business activity.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-21 (fr),
This paper presents an estimation of employment sustained directly and indirectly by exports based on an export-heterogeneous input-output table. In this table, manufacturing industries are disaggregated according to the exporter status of firms in order to account for within-industry differences in input structures. According to our results, export-sustained employment in Belgium amounted to 1.32 million jobs in 2010, which corresponds to 29.5 % of total employment.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-19 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-19 (fr), (nl),
This study seeks to identify the reasons for non-take-up by employers. It uses a mixed methods research: we have first explored the issue through in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, then carried out a quantitative survey among employers and finally sought to enhance the survey results through interviews and focus groups. The interpretation of this phased approach has provided elements for making recommendations to reduce non-take-up.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-18 (fr), (nl),
The ‘first recruitments’ measure aims at supporting job creation in new and small firms through a reduction in employers' social security contributions. However, part of the eligible employers does not claim this reduction. Using administrative data from the National Social Security Office, we seek to quantify this phenomenon, which may bias the intended effect of the measure, and to identify profiles of non-take-up.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-18 (fr), (nl),
Between April 2013 and January 2015, youth sub-minimum wage rates were repealed in Belgium. We identify the impact of the reform by comparing outcomes before and after the withdrawal, across eligible and ineligible categories of young workers, and across abolishing and not abolishing joint committees. Our results show that the reform had a small positive impact on wages and on retention rates and a comparable but negative impact on accession rates.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-18 (en),
This paper proposes a new model to account for unobserved heterogeneity in empirical modelling. The model extends the well-known Finite Mixture (or Latent Class) Model by using the Johnson family of distributions for the component densities. Due to the great variety of distributional shapes that can be assumed by the Johnson family, the method does not impose the usual a priori assumptions regarding the type of densities that are mixed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-17 (en),
Recent studies reveal the importance of entrants and young firms for job creation, productivity and economic growth. Some scholars argue that the falling rate at which new firms are established, can explain, to a certain extent, the productivity slowdown witnessed in most OECD countries. Belgium appears to stand out unfavourably from other countries in its very low start-up rate. This paper reviews the empirical cross-country evidence, provides some additional analysis of the role of young firms in industry-level employment and productivity dynamics in Belgium and concludes with a discussion of the implications for economic policy.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-16 (en),
In this study, we investigate the exit rates from unemployment associated with different levels of education in Belgium during two periods characterised respectively by high (2002-2007) and low economic growth (2009-2014). Our estimated exit probabilities confirm that the chances of leaving unemployment are substantially higher for young unemployed who have followed post-secondary education. Moreover, the probabilities of leaving unemployment for low- and medium-skilled school leavers considerably deteriorated between the two periods. On the one hand, the penalty associated with lower education slightly increased while, on the other hand, the advantage associated with postgraduate tertiary education reinforced itself. Finally, our results show considerable heterogeneity according to region of residence and gender.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-15 (en),
This article presents a traditional shift-share decomposition to identify contributions of three effects on the rise in the hourly wage cost in Belgium: changes in the industry composition of total hours worked (composition effect), changes in the structure of employment in terms of categories of workers (employment structure effect), and increases in the hourly wage cost of these individual categories (wage effect).
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-15 (fr),
This paper studies wage increases in Belgium over the period 2000-2010. It specifically aims to determine to which extent the evolution of the characteristics of the labour force (composition effects) has affected those increases. To this end, we analyse, both at the aggregate and disaggregated level, the average real wage increases in 28 industries using data from the Structure and Distribution of Earnings Survey. Together with data from the National Social Security Office, this survey offers detailed information on wages and on a large number of labour force characteristics. Our analysis is mainly based on the wage decomposition method introduced by Oaxaca (1973) and Blinder (1973).
Our results reveal substantial composition effects during the period under review, both at the aggregate level and within individual industries. Composition effects play a decisive role in the wage increases of white collar workers, but their contribution is on average negative and considerably smaller for blue collar workers. At the aggregate level, the increase in the average age of employees and in their education level and the growing number of certain better paid professional categories have contributed the most to the wage increases during that period. On the other hand, the sectoral distribution of employment, the expansion of part-time work and the higher participation rate of women in the labour market have, though to a lesser extent, brought about wage decreases.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-14 (fr),
This study was commissioned by the Central Economic Council (CEC), and more particularly by the Special Advisory Commission ‘Construction’. It presents the sectoral results of a report that was produced in 2011 by the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau. The federal government had asked both institutions to conduct a comprehensive study of a fiscal reform aiming at encouraging employment and supporting business competitiveness. As requested by the CEC, we comment here in detail the impact of a VAT increase without additional measures, on the one hand, and the impact of a VAT increase with transitional neutralization of the effect of that increase on the indexation. As regards the other measures examined, tables of results are annexed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-14 (fr),
Over the last couple of decades, there has been a large scale reorganisation of manufacturing production processes within global value chains. This has been achieved through fragmentation and offshoring. Fostered by the fall in coordination costs due to information and communication technology developments, offshoring implies that firms increasingly source intermediates from abroad. In developed economies, this has raised fears of massive job losses. Most academic work, in contrast, fails to find evidence that offshoring contributes to lowering employment.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-13 (en),
Belgium is characterised by one of the lowest employment rates of elderly workers in the European Union. Since 1997, attempts have been made to discourage elderly workers from leaving the labour market before the age of 65. In particular, two measures aimed at reducing early retirement have been introduced. The first extends the number of career years required to enter early retirement. The second, called "pension bonus", financially stimulates elderly workers to pursue employment after the age of 62. This paper provides an ex-post evaluation of the impact of these two measures on the probability of remaining employed a year later using a difference-in-differences strategy. Our data consists of individual longitudinal employment data covering the period 2000-2009. Using panel data logit models, we find first that the extension of the career length requirement had a significant impact on the probability of staying employed a year later for blue collar and low income white collar male workers aged 60-61 compared to those aged 62-64 during the period 2000-2006. Our second exercise proceeds to estimate the impact of the "pension bonus" during the period 2004-2009, in the presence of the extension of the career length requirement. Comparing the two exercises allows us to conclude that the "pension bonus" had, if any, a very limited impact on the probability of staying employed a year later for male workers aged 62-64 compared to those aged 60-61.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-12 (en),
A major concern regarding the consequences of offshoring is about the labour market position of low-skilled workers. This paper provides evidence for Belgium that offshoring has had a negative impact on the employment share of low-skilled workers in the manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2007. The main contribution to the fall in the low-skilled employment share came from materials offshoring to Central and Eastern Europe (21%), followed by business services offshoring (8%). In manufacturing industries with a higher ICT capital intensity the impact of offshoring is smaller. For market services industries, no robust conclusions regarding the impact of offshoring on low-skilled employment could be drawn.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-12 (en),
The 1996 Act establishes a preventive wage norm, based on the expected evolution of the labour costs in three reference countries, namely France, Germany and the Netherlands. It refers for those three countries to forecasts drawn up by the OECD. In its "Economic Outlook", the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) analyses in the chapter on the labour market, particularly since the 2007 edition, the monitoring of the “wage norm”. This analysis revealed the existence of different concepts of wage costs. This note aims to clarify and explain these concepts as well as the wage developments in these different meanings. It also seeks to raise questions related to these concepts
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-12 (fr),
In the national accounts labour inputs are collected by industry. Homogenising means transforming labour inputs by industry into labour inputs by product. This homogenisation is done using mathematical techniques. The paper compares the results for two wellknown techniques (product technology and industry technology) and discusses the effects of homogenisation on Belgian data for the years 2000 and 2005. Labour inputs are detailed by gender and education level. An additional distinction is made between employees and self-employed. The paper proposes a solution for the negatives problem that arises when applying the product technology model in the case of self-employed workers. It also assesses the plausibility of results by showing the effects of homogenising on wage costs and value added per head as well as on the ranking of industries by education level. The product and the industry technology model yield significantly different results, most particularly for the employment use of wholesale and retail trade. The results of the product technology model are judged to be most plausible.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-11 (en),
This study aims to analyse the effects of the decentralization level of collective wage bargaining on the wage level and the wage dispersion in Belgium. For this purpose, we have constructed a composite indicator of collective bargaining decentralization, based on variables that determine collective bargaining. Our results indicate the presence of a significant wage bonus and wider wage disparity in industries where collective bargaining is decentralized. Furthermore, we compare these results with those that use as an indicator of bargaining decentralization, the presence of collective agreements at company level, a commonly used indicator in the literature. We notice that this latter indicator seems to underestimate the degree of bargaining decentralization and thus also its effects on the wage structure. One can explains this result by the fact that in Belgium, besides firm collective agreements, the bargaining system also provides mechanisms that enable firms to distance themselves from collective agreements set at industry level.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-11 (fr),
This Working Paper gives an overall picture of the horeca industry in Belgium. The study focuses in particular on aspects of business demography, the importance of the sector for the Belgian economy, its development since the mid-nineties and the financial health of horeca companies. Since the provision of horeca services is a very labour-intensive activity, special attention is paid to employment features.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-11 (mix),
Working Papers - Working Paper 19-10 (fr),
The present paper computes cumulative employment generated by the Belgian environmental industry. Relying on Belgian input-output tables for the year 2000 and on detailed employment data (SAM sub-matrix), we investigate the patterns of the employment in the environmental industry, by considering the worker types differentiated by gender, educational attainment or a combination of these characteristics. The employment multiplier analysis of environmental employment reveals some interesting differences between employment of the overall economy and environmental employment for the level of education as well as for the gender type.
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-09 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-09 (fr),
This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects, on the Belgian economy, of various forms of tax shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and decreasing other taxes (mainly taxes on labour). Results show that, if the increase in energy taxes is combined with a reduction of taxes on labour, a double dividend (rise in employment and decrease in energy consumption and CO2 emissions) can be obtained.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-09 (fr),
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