News

  • Perspectives économiques régionales 2017-2022 - La croissance économique demeure différente entre les trois régions et est intensive en emploi (13/07/2017)

    Ces perspectives s’appuient sur une projection de croissance continue de l’économie belge de l’ordre de 1,5% par an, dans un contexte de mesures de politique économique visant à encourager
    la création d’emploi.

  • Augmentation modérée des dépenses sociales et diminution du taux de risque de pauvreté des pensionnés entre 2016 et 2060 (12/07/2017)

    D’après les dernières perspectives du Comité d’étude sur le vieillissement (CEV), l’ensemble des dépenses sociales augmente de 2,3 points de pourcentage du PIB entre 2016 et 2060. Parallèlement, le taux de risque de pauvreté des pensionnés diminue.

  • Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts (04/07/2017)

    Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.

  • The forecasts for the Belgian economy are characterised by modest growth, steady job creation and persistent public deficits (20/06/2017)

    The Federal Planning Bureau’s Economic Outlook makes it possible to outline a future ‘at unchanged policy’ of the Belgian economy for the next five years. The 2017-2022 Outlook takes into account a modest economic recovery in the euro area and is characterised by economic policy measures at the Belgian level that lead to more labour-intensive growth.

  • Les droits à pension acquis dans le premier pilier s’élèvent à 379 % du PIB en 2015 (15/06/2017)

    Les droits à pension acquis par les ménages belges dans les régimes légaux de pension (premier pilier) à la fin de l’année 2015 sont estimés à 1 557 milliards d’euros. Cela correspond à 379 % du produit intérieur brut (qui s’élève à 410,4 milliards d’euros en 2015).

  • De l’art subtil de piloter la politique budgétaire (13/06/2017)

    La Belgique s’est engagée vis-à-vis de l’Europe à rétablir l’équilibre des finances publiques en 2019. Un tel objectif est-il crédible ?

  • Belgian economic growth should amount to 1.6 % both in 2017 and 2018 (08/06/2017)

    European economic activity has so far proved to be more robust than expected in the wake of the Brexit referendum. The growth forecasts for the Belgian economy in 2017 have hence been revised upwards to 1.6 %. The same growth rate is expected in 2018. In both years, private consumption and business investment in particular should support economic growth. Net employment should rise by 105 000 people over these two years, while inflation should cool down in 2018. In accordance with the Law of 21 December 1994, the National Accounts Institute (NAI) has transmitted the figures of the economic budget to the Minister for Economy. These macroeconomic forecasts will serve as a basis for the 2018 budget review.

  • The well-being of Belgians: income is just part of the picture (02/06/2017)

    Health is the main determinant of the well-being of Belgians. Income matters but to a lesser extent. Having a job and being surrounded by loved ones also have an impact on well-being. These results apply to an “average” Belgian. The analysis of different sub-groups shows that these determinants are not of equal importance to all Belgians.

  • Qualitative employment data for Belgium : 1999-2015 (01/06/2017)

    In this database, domestic employment, labour volume (hours worked) and the wage costs of wage earners are broken down per industry (A38 of Nace rev. 2) according to gender, age group and education level. The breakdowns of employment and labour volumes are available for domestic employment as a whole and for wage earners and self-employed people separately. The database provides annual results for the period 1999-2015 and corresponds with the last edition of the national accounts (October 2016).

  • Tax Expenditure and the Cost of Labour Taxation - An application to company car taxation (04/07/2017)

    The goal of this paper is to estimate the efficiency cost of one additional euro of revenue through the personal income tax system, considering its simultaneous effects on the labour market and the transport market. More precisely, we seek to derive estimates of the Marginal Excess Burden of marginal personal income tax rates in Belgium considering the subsidization of company cars. We find that taking into account of welfare losses in the transport market adds 5-7 cents to the welfare cost of an additional euro of tax revenue, compared to models that consider only the effects on the labour market.  The cost of raising the top marginal tax rate rises by 28% to 58% depending on the model assumptions. As an aside, we estimate tax expenditure on the transport sector via the personal income tax system to be 1.9 billion euro. We conclude that there is scope for welfare improving by base broadening and rate cutting. The framework is applied to analyse the merits of cash-for-car proposals.

  • What matters to Belgians ? Analysis of the determinants of individual well-being in Belgium (02/06/2017)

    This Working Paper analyses the determinants of individual well-being in Belgium, using data from the EU-SILC survey. The analysis shows that on average health, both mental and physical, is the key determinant of well-being for Belgians. Enjoying sufficient income to access what is regarded as the prevailing standard of living in Belgium, having a job and being surrounded by loved ones also have a significant and positive impact on well-being. Besides these results for “average” Belgians, the analysis of different sub-groups highlights that these determinants are not of equal importance to all Belgians. These results contribute to the FPB’s work on the search for indicators complementary to GDP.

  • Regularization of study periods in the wage earners’ scheme – An analysis of typical cases (12/05/2017)

    This Working Paper examines for which persons it is profitable to regularise study periods and how many study periods would be regularised in the employees' scheme. This analysis of typical cases takes into account different income levels, different payment periods of the regularisation contribution, the number of actual career years and the number of regularised study periods.

  • Cost-benefit analysis of a selection of policy scenarios on an adequate future Belgian power system - Economic insights on different capacity portfolio and import scenarios (23/02/2017)

    In this report, different capacity portfolio and import scenarios for Belgium are investigated. They are based on the reports published by the Belgian transmission system operator Elia in 2016. Four scenarios are scrutinized differing in their overall context (level of carbon price) and/or in the choice of the content of their structural block. A fifth scenario is added which constitutes a sensitivity analysis: in this scenario, a considerable amount of new natural gas-fired power plants on top of the structural block is built on the Belgian territory in order to study the impact of a fairly lower level of (net) imports and even explore the net export option. The five scenarios are compared in order to assess potential longterm strategic choices from a societal perspective.

  • The population at risk of poverty or social exclusion in Belgium - Projection until 2030 (28/11/2016)

    This Working Paper presents, on the basis of information available until July 2016, a projection at unchanged policy until 2030 of the population at risk of poverty or social exclusion in Belgium, as defined in the framework of the Europe 2020 Strategy. This population should amount to 2.232 million people in 2018, or 418 000 more than the Europe 2020 target. By 2030, its share should shrink to 16.1%, still 5.6 percentage points higher than the goal resulting from the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

  • Social and environmental goals in a transition towards a low-carbon society – Working document in the framework of the SUSPENS research project (16/11/2016)

    This paper constitutes the contribution of the Federal Planning Bureau to the round table discussion with the Interdepartemental Commission for Sustainable Development of 11/2/2016 as part of task 1.3 of the SUSPENS research project. This paper gives a brief description of the climate and social policy in Belgium. The focus is on the policy goals to which Belgium has committed itself and on how far these have been achieved. The analysis shows that Belgium will have to make considerable efforts to achieve these goals and that cross-border cooperation will be necessary to realise the transition towards a low-carbon society.

  • Drivers of wholesale electricity prices in a small, open economy - Some evidence from the nuclear restart in Belgium (09/11/2016)

    In this paper, the impact of a nuclear downtime and subsequent restart on wholesale electricity prices on the Belgian power exchange is investigated by means of a dual methodology. First, publicly available market data is used to construct a stable statistical model that is deployed to examine the effect of nuclear power generation variations on market price outcomes. Next to this empirical evidence, the optimisation tool Crystal Super Grid is used to assess the impact of the resumed availability of the nuclear reactors on several indicators characterising the Belgian and European power landscape.

Quick access

Consumer price index & Inflation forecasts

Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent. (Last update : 04/07/2017)

Indicators

To evaluate the current state of the Belgian economy, the FPB regularly updates a series of indicators. The indicators concern the macro-economic stance of the economies of Belgium, its three neighbouring countries and the euro area, as well as the transport industry.(Last update : 14/07/2017)

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