- REP 11301 [28/07/2016]
- Economic outlook 2015-2020 [12/05/2015]
- Economic outlook 2015-2020 0 [19/03/2015]
- Economic outlook 2015 [27/02/2015]
- Economic outlook 2014-2015 [30/09/2014]
The present document is the fourth biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.
This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on June 30, 2014).
OPREP201403 [Contributor - 17/07/2014]
This Working Paper is aimed at describing the current version of Federal Planning Bureau’s medium-term macrosectoral model, named HERMES. This model is used to produce on a regular basis medium-term outlooks for the Belgian economy. In addition to the main macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, private consumption, external trade, investments,…), those outlooks also concern labour market aggregates, detailed public finances, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The HERMES model is also used to compute the impact of policy measures and external shocks on the Belgian economy.
Working Paper 13-13 [08/11/2013]- Economic forecasts 2013 [Contributor - 28/02/2013]
- Economic forecasts 2012 - 2013 [Contributor - 16/10/2012]
- Economic outlook 2012-2017 [14/05/2012]
- Economic forecasts 2012 [Contributor - 09/03/2012]
- Economic outlook 2011-2016 [12/05/2011]
- Economic outlook 2010-2015 [19/05/2010]
- Economic outlook 2009-2014 [20/05/2009]
- Economic outlook 2008-2013 [21/05/2008]
If unemployment benefits are indexed to gross wages and the replacement rate between unemployment benefits and net wages affects the wage rate, then cutting taxes falling on the supply of labour (personal income taxes or employees' social-security contributions) increases employment more than reducing taxes falling on the demand for labour (employers' social-security contributions).
Article 2007100506 [05/10/2007]The distinction between the young and the elderly within low- and high-wage earning employment in HERMES, the FPB's medium-term macroeconomic model, enables the assessment of both age- and wage-related labour cost reduction policies.
Article 2007100505 [05/10/2007]Every three years, each EU Member State is required to set out its political priorities related to economic growth and job creation in a so-called National Reform Programme (NRP). The 2005-2008 programme prepared by the Belgian authorities proposes six lines of action for boosting growth and employment. For each of these lines of action, one or two quantitative objectives have been set out. In this working paper we compare the main macroeconomic objectives contained in the Belgian NRP with the results of the latest medium-term economic outlook produced by the Federal Planning Bureau. This no-policy-change scenario also serves as a baseline for analysing the effects on the main macroeconomic objectives of the government of a further reduction in social security contributions in order to ease the tax wedge on labour as foreseen in the NRP.
Article 2007100504 [05/10/2007]- Working Paper 13-07 [28/09/2007]
The distinction between the young and the elderly within low and high wage earning employment in HERMES, the FPB's medium-term macroeconomic model, enables the assessment of both age and wage related labour cost reducing policies. The age structure of salaried employment in each branch of activity is embedded in a three-stage mechanism. First, aggregate demand and the relative cost of labour to capital determine salaried employment. Next, relative wages allocate employment among three major labour categories: low-paid jobs, high-paid jobs and special-employment programmes. Finally, within each labour category relative wages allocate employment between the young (aged less than fifty) and the elderly (aged fifty or more).
Working Paper 12-07 [27/09/2007]Every three years, each EU member state is required to set out its political priorities related to economic growth and job creation in a so-called National Reform Programme ( NRP ). Gauged by the latest medium-term economic outlook produced by the Federal Planning Bureau, compliance with the main macroeconomic objectives contained in the Belgian NRP will still require sizable efforts, especially regarding the labour market. Furthermore, our analysis shows that reducing social security contributions in order to lower the tax wedge on labour as foreseen in the NRP , is efficient in increasing the employment rate, especially when targeted at low wage earners, but also that such policies have a negative effect on the objectives related to public finances and CO 2 emissions.
Working Paper 11-07 [25/09/2007]- Economic outlook 2007-2012 [11/05/2007]
- Economic outlook 2005-2010 [26/05/2005]
- Planning Paper 97 [10/03/2005]
- Planning Paper 96 [22/10/2004]
- Economic outlook 2004-2009 [17/05/2004]
The impact of the current personal income tax reform on wages, value added and production is assessed. When fully implemented and all feedback on the goods and factor markets is accounted for, the 2001 fiscal reform and the removal of the crisis surcharge tax will cut the personal income tax rate by 3.1 percentage points and the market-sector real wage by 1.7%-2.6%.
Working Paper 11-04 [09/05/2004]This paper assesses to which extent the policy of reducing employers’ social security contributions has increased market sector employment in 1995-2000. The analytical framework is a macroeconometric labour market model of the market sector that models added value, the employment of labour and capital, the setting of wages and prices, the matching of supply and demand on the labour market, and the dynamics that tie short-run behaviour to the steady state. The real wage cost depends on the wage gap, labour productivity, the replacement rate of unemployment benefits to the take home wage, and tensions on the labour market. The model comes in two versions. The ‘right-to-manage’ version links the wage cost to the unemployment rate; the ‘job-search’ version ties the wage cost to the unemployment-vacancy-ratio.
Working Paper 14-03 [25/09/2003]- Working Paper 13-03 [20/09/2003]
- Economic outlook 2003-2008 [26/05/2003]
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2006-2011 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.0%). This pace of growth should follow a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.5%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.4%). Economic growth in Belgium should remain slightly higher than in the euro area, on average.
Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the 2006-2011 period, in particular because of the increase in household disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax and increases in employment and social benefits). Investment growth should reach 2.5% during the 2006-2011 period, mainly reflecting the path of business investment growth, but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should be 5.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.3%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should increase again after 2007 and attain 3.2% of GDP in 2011 (partly as a result of the improvement of the terms of trade). Limited increases in wage costs, the decline in oil prices after 2007 and a negative output gap until the end of the projection period, should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.
The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, a limited increase in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 39,000 and 41,000 jobs in 2005 and 2006 respectively, about 35,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2007-2011 period. Between 2005 and 2011, industrial employment should fall by 30,000 persons, but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 250,000. Nevertheless, in view of the strong increase in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age class) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 38,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.1% in 2011.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP appearing in 2006, widening to 1.2% in 2007, before gradually falling to 0.3% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still expected to decline from 93.9% in 2005 to 78.0% in 2011.
Working Paper 06-02 [10/07/2002]- Economic outlook 2002-2007 [06/06/2002]
- Working Paper 08-01 [15/12/2001]
- Economic Outlook 2001-2006 [15/05/2001]
- Working Paper 05-00 [15/07/2000]
- Economic Outlook 2000-2005 [15/05/2000]
- Economic Outlook 1999-2004 [15/04/1999]
- Economic Outlook 1998-2003 [15/04/1998]
- Economic Outlook 1997-2001 [15/04/1997]
Federal Planning Bureau
