The inflation forecasts from December 2023 until the end of 2024 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until November 2023 from Statbel. These forecasts take into account the futures quotes of 28 November 2023. The oil price should amount to 83 dollar per barrel in 2023 and 80 dollar per barrel in 2024. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.08 dollar per euro in 2023 and 1.11 dollar per euro in 2024.

On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 4.1% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024, compared to 9.59% in 2022 and 2.44% in 2021. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 4.4% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024, compared to 9.25% in 2022 and 2.01% in 2021.

In October 2023, the pivotal index for social benefits and public sector wages was last reached. As a result, social benefits are adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in November 2023 and public sector wages will follow suit in December 2023. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the two following pivotal indices should be exceeded in 2024.

• Pivotal index 128.11 should be reached in March 2024. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in April 2024 and public sector wages should follow suit in May 2024.
• The next pivotal index (130.67) should be reached in October 2024. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in November 2024 and public sector wages should follow suit in December 2024.

Next update: 9 January 2024 at 2 p.m.

National consumer price index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.

Health index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.