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The FPB not only publishes the results of its research, but also a set of databases. These databases can contain either historical data or forecasts.

Consumer Price Index - Inflation forecasts [01/09/2020]

The inflation forecasts from September 2020 until the end of 2021 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until August 2020 from the FPS Economy. These forecasts take into account futures of 26 August 2020. The oil price should amount to 43 dollar per barrel in 2020 and 48 dollar per barrel in 2021. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.14 dollar per euro on average in 2020 and 1.19 dollar per euro in 2021.

On the basis of these monthly inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 0.8% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021, compared to 1.44% in 2019 and 2.05% in 2018. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 1.1% in 2020 and 1.3% in 2021, compared to 1.47% in 2019 and 1.77% in 2018.

In February 2020, the pivotal index for the public sector was last reached. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the pivotal index for public wages and social benefits (currently 109.34) should next be exceeded by the smoothed health index (as defined in the law of 23.04.2015 on employment promotion, Belgian Official Journal of 27.04.2015) in August 2021. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in September 2021 and public wages should follow suit in October 2021.

The inflation forecasts are updated the first Tuesday of every month (except for August) taking the latest available information into account. Next update: 6 October 2020.

Conversion coefficients

National consumer price index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.

Health index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.

National consumer price index (2021)

2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 110.62 110.86 110.92 111.18 111.21 111.16 111.29 111.46 111.00 111.46 111.56 111.71
Growth rates (%) (1) 0.85 1.05 1.27 1.51 1.61 1.50 1.39 1.48 1.48 1.45 1.48 1.52

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2021)

2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 111.03 111.22 111.29 111.52 111.52 111.54 111.65 111.80 111.32 111.84 111.90 112.11
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.19 1.23 1.21 1.18 1.29 1.35 1.35 1.45 1.45 1.41 1.47 1.51
Smoothed health index (2) 108.30 108.53 108.78 109.04 109.16 109.24 109.33 109.39 109.35 109.42 109.48 109.56

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) From April 2016 onwards, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2020)

2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 109.69 109.71 109.53 109.53 109.45 109.52 109.76 109.83 109.38 109.87 109.93 110.04
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.41 1.10 0.62 0.57 0.48 0.60 0.73 0.82 0.87 0.96 0.95 0.92

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2020)

2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 109.72 109.87 109.96 110.22 110.10 110.05 110.16 110.20 109.73 110.28 110.28 110.44
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.12 1.00 0.84 1.14 1.11 0.94 1.00 1.04 1.06 1.19 1.17 1.15
Smoothed health index (2) 107.04 107.25 107.49 107.74 107.84 107.88 107.93 107.92 107.83 107.89 107.92 107.98

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) From April 2016 onwards, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2019)

2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 108.17 108.52 108.85 108.91 108.93 108.87 108.96 108.94 108.44 108.83 108.90 109.04
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.99 2.17 2.33 2.08 1.89 1.73 1.42 1.26 0.80 0.48 0.39 0.76

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2019)

2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 108.50 108.78 109.04 108.98 108.89 109.02 109.07 109.07 108.58 108.98 109.00 109.18
Growth rates (%) (1) 2.00 2.10 2.18 1.96 1.78 1.88 1.52 1.41 0.99 0.67 0.48 0.67
Smoothed health index (2) 106.25 106.38 106.52 106.65 106.74 106.80 106.81 106.83 106.76 106.75 106.73 106.76

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) From April 2016 onwards, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

National consumer price index (2018)

2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 106.06 106.22 106.37 106.69 106.91 107.02 107.43 107.58 107.58 108.31 108.48 108.22
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.71 1.48 1.39 1.52 1.82 2.08 2.17 2.24 2.35 2.75 2.78 2.34

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2018)

2018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 106.37 106.54 106.71 106.89 106.99 107.01 107.44 107.55 107.52 108.26 108.48 108.45
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.64 1.41 1.32 1.36 1.49 1.63 1.71 1.77 1.91 2.29 2.48 2.17
Smoothed health index (2) 103.93 104.10 104.31 104.49 104.65 104.76 104.94 105.10 105.23 105.54 105.79 106.01

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) From April 2016 onwards, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

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