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The FPB not only publishes the results of its research, but also a set of databases. These databases can contain either historical data or forecasts.

Consumer Price Index - Inflation forecasts [05/07/2022]

The inflation forecasts from July 2022 until the end of 2023 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until June 2022 from Statbel. These forecasts take into account futures of 27 June 2022. The oil price should amount to 109 dollar per barrel in 2022 and 95 dollar per barrel in 2023. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.08 dollar per euro in 2022 and 1.09 dollar per euro in 2023.

On the basis of these monthly inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 8.5% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023, compared to 2.44% in 2021 and 0.74% in 2020. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 8.0% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023, compared to 2.01% in 2021 and 0.99% in 2020.

In April 2022, the pivotal index for social benefits and public sector wages was last reached. As a result, social benefits were adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in May 2022 and public sector wages will follow suit in June 2022. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the three following pivotal indices should also be exceeded in 2022 and 2023.

  • Pivotal index 118.36 should next be reached by the smoothed health index in August 2022. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in September 2022 and public sector wages should follow suit in October 2022.
  • The next pivotal index (120.73) should be reached in December 2022. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in January 2023 and public sector wages should follow suit in February 2023.
  • The subsequent pivotal index (123.14) should be reached in March 2023. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in April 2023 and public sector wages should follow suit in May 2023.
  • Pivotal index 125.60 should not be crossed in 2023.

The inflation forecasts are updated the first Tuesday of every month (except for August) taking the latest available information into account.

Next update: 6 September 2022 at 2 p.m.

Conversion coefficients

National consumer price index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.

Health index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.

National consumer price index (2023)

2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 126.57 126.94 127.06 126.92 126.98 126.94 127.43 127.56 127.27 127.58 127.58 127.69
Growth rates (%) (1) 6.97 6.61 6.16 5.69 4.93 4.02 3.84 3.61 3.44 2.95 2.78 2.58

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2023)

2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 126.09 126.40 126.62 126.49 126.53 126.58 127.18 127.28 126.90 127.41 127.32 127.55
Growth rates (%) (1) 6.67 6.45 6.36 5.77 5.22 4.59 4.39 4.04 3.76 3.17 2.92 2.67
Smoothed health index (2) 121.89 122.61 123.32 123.87 123.98 124.02 124.16 124.35 124.45 124.65 124.68 124.75

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.

National consumer price index (2022)

2022 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 118.32 119.07 119.69 120.09 121.01 122.04 122.72 123.12 123.04 123.93 124.13 124.48
Growth rates (%) (1) 7.59 8.04 8.31 8.31 8.97 9.65 9.33 9.12 9.32 8.52 7.35 7.55

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

Health index and smoothed health index (2022)

2022 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 118.21 118.74 119.05 119.59 120.25 121.02 121.83 122.34 122.30 123.50 123.71 124.23
Growth rates (%) (1) 7.12 7.56 7.68 7.81 8.34 8.72 8.60 8.52 8.91 8.39 7.39 7.47
Smoothed health index (2) 113.42 114.60 115.54 116.52 117.02 117.58 118.26 118.93 119.44 120.04 120.50 120.97

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.

National consumer price index (2021)

2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 109.97 110.21 110.51 110.88 111.05 111.30 112.25 112.83 112.55 114.20 115.63 115.74
Growth rates (%) (1) 0.26 0.46 0.89 1.23 1.46 1.63 2.27 2.73 2.86 4.16 5.64 5.71

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2021)

2021 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 110.35 110.39 110.56 110.93 110.99 111.31 112.18 112.74 112.29 113.94 115.20 115.60
Growth rates (%) (1) 0.57 0.47 0.55 0.64 0.81 1.14 1.83 2.30 2.29 3.48 4.81 5.21
Smoothed health index (2) 107.86 107.93 108.09 108.35 108.50 108.73 109.13 109.57 109.89 110.53 111.27 111.97

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.

National consumer price index (2020)

2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Index (base year 2013) 109.69 109.71 109.53 109.53 109.45 109.52 109.76 109.83 109.42 109.64 109.46 109.49
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.41 1.10 0.62 0.57 0.48 0.60 0.73 0.82 0.90 0.74 0.51 0.41

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

Health index and smoothed health index (2020)

2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Health index (base year 2013) 109.72 109.87 109.96 110.22 110.10 110.05 110.16 110.20 109.78 110.11 109.91 109.88
Growth rates (%) (1) 1.12 1.00 0.84 1.14 1.11 0.94 1.00 1.04 1.11 1.04 0.83 0.64
Smoothed health index (2) 107.04 107.25 107.49 107.74 107.84 107.88 107.93 107.92 107.85 107.86 107.80 107.72

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) Until March 2015, the smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index. From April 2015 until the month preceding the month wherein the smoothed health index is exceeded by the reference index, the smoothed health index is held stable at its level of March 2015.

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