This Working Paper presents the methodology that has been applied since 2020 in the model used to draw up the population outlook for Belgium. The methodology considers that fertility is explained by both structural (education, labour market participation, etc.) and cyclical factors (the economic cycle, etc.). Those factors are taken into account through three elements: (1) expert opinion on long-term fertility trends, (2) an explicit trend in the fertility schedule and (3) the effect of cyclical and structural determinants of fertility using an error-correction model.
News, press releases, articles, Fact Sheets & events
What if ageing was counted differently? 08/09/2020
To measure population ageing, several demographic indicators are traditionally proposed, including the average age of the population or the proportion of people aged 67 and over in the population. This Fact Sheet considers population ageing from a different angle and couples old age not to the number of years already lived, but to the number of years left to live.
External costs of transport 29/06/2020
This report quantifies the marginal external cost of transport (congestion costs and environmental costs) using the Federal Planning Bureau’s PLANET model and compares this to the transport taxes levied. These indicators were not covered in the ‘Projections of transport demand in Belgium by 2040’, published in 2019 by the Federal Planning Bureau and the FPS Mobility and Transport. In that sense this report supplements this publication.
The population projections 2019-2070 were published in the beginning of March 2020, just before the first signs of COVID-19 on the Belgian territory. In light of the evolution of the epidemic and the measures taken by the National Security Council (NSC) to halt the spread of COVID-19, an update of these projections seemed indispensable.
The PLANET Model: Methodological Report 02/03/2020
PLANET is a model developed by the Belgian Federal PLANning Bureau that models the relationship between Economy and Transport. Its aim is to produce: (i) medium- and long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium, both for passenger and freight transport; (ii) simulations of the effects of transport policy measures; (iii) cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. This methodological report describes the main features of the PLANET model, and more specifically, the version 4.0 used for the transport outlook published in January 2019.
Can we act on population ageing in the coming years through demographic policy measures? (Articles - 08/09/2020)
Society will rather have to adapt to population ageing.
Fact Sheet 004 : What if ageing was counted differently? (Fact Sheet - 08/09/2020)
Old age would then not be coupled to the number of years already lived, but to the number of years left to live.