Comprendre le non-recours aux mesures de réductions de cotisations patronales : une approche méthodologique mixte
De non-take-up van werkgeversbijdrage-verminderingen begrijpen: een gemengde methodologische benadering 22/06/2018

This study seeks to identify the reasons for non-take-up by employers. It uses a mixed methods research: we have first explored the issue through in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, then carried out a quantitative survey among employers and finally sought to enhance the survey results through interviews and focus groups. The interpretation of this phased approach has provided elements for making recommendations to reduce non-take-up.

WP 08-18  (fr), (nl),

Perspectives économiques 2018-2023
Economische vooruitzichten 2018-2023 20/06/2018

Economic outlook 2018-2023  (fr), (nl),

Multiregional Population Projection Model at the EU level 08/06/2018

This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. In this case, ’consistent’ means that the sum of all intra-EU movements should be equal to 0. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.

This paper shows that the currently available official statistics on migration flows can be used to build a multiregional migration model at the EU level.  Although more developments should be implemented to test and improve the model, it produces promising results.

WP 07-18  (en),

Insights in a clean energy future for Belgium - Impact assessment of the 2030 Climate & Energy Framework 17/05/2018

In October 2017, the Federal Planning Bureau published its three-yearly energy outlook describing the Belgian energy and emission projections under unchanged policy up to horizon 2050. That outlook demonstrates that we are drifting away from agreed targets and international agreements made to protect future societies from hazardous levels of climate change. That is why that outlook is complemented by this report that adopts a different perspective. This publication describes and analyses three alternative policy scenarios that are compatible both with the 2030 EU Climate and Energy Framework and with the roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050.

WP 05-18  (en), (en), (en), (en),

Non-take-up of employers' social security contributions cuts: the case of the “first recruitments” measure 30/04/2018

The ‘first recruitments’ measure aims at supporting job creation in new and small firms through a reduction in employers' social security contributions. However, part of the eligible employers does not claim this reduction. Using administrative data from the National Social Security Office, we seek to quantify this phenomenon, which may bias the intended effect of the measure, and to identify profiles of non-take-up.

WP 06-18  (fr), (nl),

2018-2023 Budgetary Outlook for the federated entities 24/04/2018

This report presents a brief disaggregation of the budget balance of the sub-sector “communities and regions” that was published in the March 2018 “2018-2023 Economic Outlook”. The budget balances of the Flemish Community, the French-speaking Community, the Walloon Region and the Brussels-Capital Region are presented.

OPREP190418  (fr), (nl),

Perspectives économiques 2018-2023 - Version de mars 2018
Economische vooruitzichten 2018-2023 - Versie van maart 2018 22/03/2018

This report constitutes a contribution to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and the new National Reform Programme. It includes the main results of the preliminary version of the “2018-2023 Economic Outlook” to be published in June 2018.

Economic outlook 2018-2023 - March 2018  (fr), (nl),

Les charges administratives en Belgique pour l’année 2016
De administratieve lasten in België voor het jaar 2016 22/03/2018

At the request of the Ministerial Council and in collaboration with the Agency for Administrative Simplification (AAS), the Federal Planning Bureau carries out an estimate every two years of the administrative burdens for firms and self-employed in Belgium. This estimate is based on a survey of a representative sample of firms and self-employed. In addition to the quantitative part, the survey also includes an important qualitative part that shows how firms and self-employed view the problem of administrative burdens. This Planning Paper shows the results regarding the administrative burdens for 2016.

Planning paper 116  (fr), (nl),

Removing youth sub-minimum wage rates in Belgium: did it affect youth employment? 16/03/2018

Between April 2013 and January 2015, youth sub-minimum wage rates were repealed in Belgium. We identify the impact of the reform by comparing outcomes before and after the withdrawal, across eligible and ineligible categories of young workers, and across abolishing and not abolishing joint committees. Our results show that the reform had a small positive impact on wages and on retention rates and a comparable but negative impact on accession rates.

Working Paper 04-18  (en),

The PEACH2AIR database of air pollution associated with household consumption in Belgium in 2014 - Methodological description for the SUSPENS research project funded by the Federal Science Policy Office 14/03/2018

The database PEACH2AIR links emissions of greenhouse and acidifying gases, of gases contributing to tropospheric ozone formation and particulate matter to consumer expenditures in Belgium in 2014. It relies on standardized air pollution data (including air emissions accounts), input-output tables and the Household Budget Survey. Analyses for 2014 show that energy products as well as food and non-alcoholic beverages are the most air polluting expenditure categories.

Working Paper 03-18  (en),

Prévisions économiques 2018
Economische vooruitzichten 2018 13/03/2018

Economic outlook 2018  (fr), (nl),

Impact van het Pact - Bijkomende cijfers ter staving van een Energiepact
Impact du Pacte : chiffres additionnels à l’appui du Pacte énergétique 26/02/2018

December 22 2017, the Federal Planning Bureau received an assignment from the federal minister of Energy, Mrs. Marghem, to perform a new study. The occasion was the appearance of the joint Vision document elaborated by the four Ministers of Energy and the subsequent demand for additional calculations by some stakeholders. The main task of this supplementary study then consists in analysing the impact of four predefined electricity scenarios with horizon 2030 on a number of socio-economic indicators.

OPREP201802  (mix),

Perspectives démographiques 2017-2070 - Population et ménages
Demografische vooruitzichten 2017-2070 - Bevolking en huishoudens 22/02/2018

The Federal Planning Bureau publishes its 2017-2070 demographic projections for Belgium. This exercise notably reveals the impact of the disappearance of the baby boom generation, as well as certain regional differences.

EFPOP1770  (fr), (nl),

Mesurer le bien-être en Belgique - Construction d’un indicateur composite pour mesurer le bien-être actuel des Belges
Het welzijn in België meten - Opbouw van een composiete indicator om het huidige welzijn van de Belgen te meten 19/02/2018

This Working Paper proposes an indicator to measure the development in well-being in Belgium. It was built from a statistical analysis of the determinants of well-being in Belgium. It has the advantage of being transparent, divisible and easy to communicate. The analysis shows that the well-being of Belgians generally decreased between 2005 and 2016. This decrease is mainly due to a deterioration in the health of Belgians.

Working Paper 02-18  (fr), (nl),

Complementary indicators to GDP, 2018 15/02/2018

This report presents the update of a set of indicators complementary to GDP. These indicators cover the period from 1990 to 2016, depending on the availability of the data. The Act of 14 March 2014, which complements the Act of 21 December 1994 establishing social and diverse provisions with a set of complementary indicators to measure the quality of life, human development, social progress and the sustainability of our economy, entrusts the National Accounts Institute with the development of this set of indicators and assigns this mission  to the Federal Planning Bureau.

This report also proposes a composite indicator to measure well-being Here and now‘. It should be completed in the forthcoming updates by composite indicators for the two other dimensions of sustainable development, ’Later‘ and ’Elsewhere‘.

The data are available on www.indicators.be.

OPREP201801  (fr), (nl),

Population projections 2016-2060 : sensitivity analyses, alternative scenarios and budgetary and social impact 05/02/2018

This Working Paper analyses various alternative population projections. The first approach shows the impact of alternative future development scenarios for the population growth components. The effects of some of these scenarios on the development in social expenditure and the at-risk-of-poverty rate for pensioners are also analysed. The second approach consists in carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the population projection to some model parameters, in particular the observation periods selected to estimate trends.

Working Paper 01-18  (fr),

Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts 2014-2015 19/12/2017

European Regulation No 691/2011 (amended by European Regulation No 538/2014) obliges the member states of the European Union to deliver six environmental economic accounts as of 2017. The accounts concerned are the three accounts that have been obligatory since 2013, the Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity (ETEA), the Air Emissions Accounts (AEA) and the Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts (EW-MFA), as well as three accounts that have to be delivered as of 2017, the Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS), the Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts (EPEA), and the Physical Energy Flow Accounts (PEFA).

In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EPEA for the years 2014-2015.

REP_EPEA2017  (fr), (nl),

Concrétiser les objectifs mondiaux de développement durable - Rapport fédéral sur le développement durable 2017
De mondiale duurzameontwikkelingsdoelstellingen concretiseren - Federaal rapport inzake duurzame ontwikkeling 2017 19/12/2017

The 2017 Federal Report on Sustainable Development takes as its starting point the Sustainable Developments Goals (SDGs) adopted at the UN. The report assesses 34 indicators showing the evolution of Belgium towards the SDGs and examines the gap between existing scenarios and the SDGs in 3 areas: poverty, energy and transportation. Current developments usually go in the right direction, but most often lag far behind the quantified objectives.

Sustainable development Report 2017  (fr), (nl),

Economic Policy Committee’s Ageing Working Group - Belgium: Country Fiche 2017 18/12/2017

The Ageing Working Group (AWG) was established in December 1999 by the Economic Policy Committee  of  the  European  Council  ECOFIN.  This  working  group  is  responsible  for  producing  common budgetary projections on age-related public expenditure items. Each Member State calculates its longterm pension expenditure based on common assumptions discussed in the AWG.  

The demographic and macroeconomic assumptions in the public pension expenditure projection of Belgium for the AWG are different from those retained  in the national projection of the Study Committee on Ageing, as well as the scope of  pension definition. This projection is carried out using the MALTESE model of the Federal Planning Bureau.  

This report presents the new Belgian pension projection 2016-2070 that will be published in the “2018 Ageing Report” next year. In addition, these results will be used in the context of the “Fiscal Sustainability Report” of the European Commission that assesses the mid-term and long-term fiscal situation of Member states. 

REP_COUNTRYFICH2017  (en),

Comptes du secteur des biens et services environnementaux 2014-2015
Rekeningen voor de milieugoederen en -dienstensector 2014-2015 18/12/2017

European Regulation No 691/2011 (amended by European Regulation No 538/2014) obliges the member states of the European Union to deliver six environmental economic accounts as of 2017. The accounts concerned are the three accounts that have been obligatory since 2013, the Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity (ETEA), the Air Emissions Accounts (AEA) and the Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts (EW-MFA), as well as three accounts that have to be delivered as of 2017, the Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS), the Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts (EPEA), and the Physical Energy Flow Accounts (PEFA).

In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EGSS for the years 2014-2015.

REP_EGSS2017  (fr), (nl),

Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts 2011-2015 15/12/2017

European Regulation No 691/2011 (amended by European Regulation No 538/2014) obliges the member states of the European Union to deliver six environmental economic accounts as of 2017. The accounts concerned are the three accounts that have been obligatory since 2013, the Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity (ETEA), the Air Emissions Accounts (AEA) and the Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts (EW-MFA), as well as three accounts that have to be delivered as of 2017, the Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS), the Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts (EPEA), and the Physical Energy Flow Accounts (PEFA).

In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EW-MFA for the years 2011-2015.

REP_EWMFA2017  (fr), (nl),

Table 29 - First pillar pensions in Belgium (Grant report) 31/10/2017

The supplementary table 29, “Accrued-to-date pension entitlements in social insurance” of the Eurostat transmission program covers the statutory pensions and occupational pension schemes in social insurance in Belgium. In a working paper that was published May 2017, the Federal Planning Bureau presented a first methodology to complete the columns on the statutory pension schemes. Following this publication and the preliminary data transmission towards Eurostat mid-2017, the decision was taken to change the model and implement the PBO-methodology. Moreover, the first model contained an error in the programming part which lead to an overestimation of the accrued rights. This error has been corrected for. Consequently, the accrued-to-date pension entitlements are lower than the ones presented in the working paper.

REP_11311  (en),

Le paysage énergétique belge à l’horizon 2050 - Perspectives à politique inchangée
Het Belgische energielandschap tegen 2050 - Een projectie bij ongewijzigd beleid 27/10/2017

This energy outlook describes the evolution of our national energy system by 2050, assuming unchanged policy. The analysis of this outlook makes it possible to assess, at Belgian level, whether it is necessary to adopt and the extent of new measures and policies in view of the 2030 European Framework for Climate and Energy and the transition towards a low-carbon society by 2050. As such, this outlook can make a useful contribution to the forthcoming debate on the Interfederal Energy Pact aimed at establishing a common energy vision to the different federated entities by 2030 and 2050.

EFEN2017  (fr), (nl),

Growth and Productivity in Belgium 17/10/2017

The objective of the report is to provide an overview of the main drivers of economic growth and the productivity evolution in Belgium, in comparison with its three neighbouring countries and the US over 1970 and 2015. Recent evolutions, over 2000-2015, are analysed in details in order to shed light on the impact of the great recession. The growth accounting methodology is applied to explain labour productivity growth for the total economy, manufacturing and market services.

Working Paper 11-17  (en),

Accuracy assessment of the FPB medium-term outlooks - An update 30/09/2017

This working paper provides an update of a study from 2007 in which the accuracy of the medium-term outlooks for the Belgian economy is assessed. The study is expanded with nine additional editions of the Economic Outlook covering a mixture of pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods.

In the framework of the Act of 28 February 2014 on the National Accounts Institute the Scientific Committee for the economic budget has taken note of this study and has issued an opinion on it.

Working Paper 13-17  (en), (fr), (mix), (mix), (nl),