External costs of transport

This report quantifies the marginal external cost of transport (congestion costs and environmental costs) using the Federal Planning Bureau’s PLANET model and compares this to the transport taxes levied. These indicators were not covered in the ‘Projections of transport demand in Belgium by 2040’, published in 2019 by the Federal Planning Bureau and the FPS Mobility and Transport. In that sense this report supplements this publication.

The cost of traffic congestion in Belgium

This paper seeks to quantify the cost of the most important inefficiencies in Belgian transport taxation. To this end we calculate the welfare gain of an ideal, optimal tax/subsidy system across the transport market as a whole (i.e. considering private road traffic in conjunction with public transport). We found the total welfare gain to be 2.3 billion euros, of which 1.3 billion are due to time gains of remaining road users. Our measure lies significantly above those found in the literature, since we consider the distortion cause by a wide range of subsidies.

Perspectives de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2040
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2040

Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces, every three years, long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise is the fourth of its kind so far. It aims to make a projection of no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing elements on which transport policy should be based to be identified and the impact of transport policy measures to be studied.

Description et utilisation du modèle PLANET
Beschrijving en gebruik van het PLANET-model

Transport demand and capacity of the Belgian rail network

The PLANET model, developed by the Federal Planning Bureau within the framework of a cooperation agreement with the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, makes it possible to calculate the long-term evolution of transport demand in Belgium. Transport demand includes both passenger and freight transport and is broken down by mode of transport. For rail transport, demand is projected assuming constant average speed on the network over the whole projection period. The PLANET model does not take into account railway infrastructure capacity; in other words, it assumes that the network will be able to cope with any increase in demand without affecting the quality of service. Since the utilisation rate of some lines is already very high, there was a need to extend the scope of analysis of PLANET to estimate the impact of the future railway demand on the network utilisation rate. That analysis, performed at a detailed spatial level (the rail sections), is useful and pertinent, particularly for rail operators and public authorities within the context of the railway investment plans.

Perspectives de l’évolution de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2030
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2030

Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces every three years long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise, the third of its kind so far, is aimed at making a projection with no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing to identify elements on which transport policy should be based and to study the impact of transport policy measures.

Impact sur l’environnement de l’évolution de la demande de transport à l’horizon 2030
De milieu-impact van de evolutie van de transportvraag tegen 2030

Perspectives de l’évolution de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2030
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2030

Social Costs of Road Accidents in Belgium

Presentation given at the conference on the occasion of the European Safety Day on October 13^th, 2010.

The PLANET model - Methodological Report: Modelling of Short Sea Shipping and Bus-Tram-Metro

This Working Paper describes the methodological changes in the Modal and Time Choice module of the PLANET model, further to the endogenisation of short see shipping for international transport and the splitting of the Bus-Tram-Metro aggregate into three distinct transport modes.

Les comptes satellites des transports et les externalités

The transport satellite accounts (TSA) show the total transport expenditure in Belgium in 2000. The TSA are a complement to the information in the national accounts for transport activities, which are only partially described in this general framework. Transport generates externalities that are not taken into account in the total expenditure as defined in the satellite accounts. The study assesses the external costs of various transport modes and contains a joint analysis of the externalities and of the main TSA results for 2000. The analysis reveals the extent of the transport costs and externalities, especially of road transport. The estimated external costs concern air pollution, climate change, accidents, noise and congestion.

Vervoeremissies - Historische evolutie en vooruitzichten

Perspectives à long terme de l’évolution des transports en Belgique : projection de référence
Langetermijnvooruitzichten voor transport in België : referentiescenario

Perspectives énergétiques pour la Belgique à l’horizon 2030
Energievooruitzichten voor België tegen 2030