Page Title

The Institution

The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is an independent public agency. It draws up studies and projections on economic, social and environmental policy issues and on the integration of these policies within a context of sustainable development.

Bart Hertveldt

Having completed his studies at Ghent University (master’s in economics) and at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (postgraduate degree in econometrics), Bart Hertveldt started his professional career as a researcher at Ghent University (department of financial economics). After four years, he joined the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) in April 1993. During his first eleven years at the FPB, he worked in the Business cycle analysis and short-term forecasting team. Notably, he contributed to the development of MODTRIM, the quarterly model used for preparing the economic budget.  Since mid-2004, he has been advisor to the FPB’s Sectoral Directorate and coordinator of the team charged with drawing up the input-output tables and the environmental-economic accounts for Belgium.  He is involved in the broad field of public statistics, in particular as a member of the Higher Council of Statistics, expert for the Board of the National Accounts Institute, observer in the Interfederal Institute for Statistics (IIS) and Belgian representative to the Eurostat Technical Group on Consolidated EU-EA Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables. Finally, within the Sectoral Directorate, he coordinates the project ‘economic assessment of election manifestos’.

 

Coordonnées

Teams

  • Sectoral and environmental accounts and analyses (Coordinator)
  • Sectoral Directorate
  • Compilation of the interregional input-output table for the year 2015: data sources and methodology

    The Federal Planning Bureau has built the 2015 interregional input-output table for Belgium within the framework of an agreement with the statistical authorities of the three Regions (BISA/IBSA, VSA and IWEPS). This paper describes the methodology and data sources used to compile this table.

    WP 07-21 [09/07/2021]
  • Chiffrage 2019 : note de lancement - Document rédigé dans le cadre des travaux préparatoires au chiffrage des programmes électoraux 2019
    Doorrekening 2019: startnota - Document opgesteld in het kader van de voorbereidende werkzaamheden van de doorrekening van de verkiezingsprogramma’s van 2019

    La note de lancement du projet de chiffrage des programmes électoraux vise à rappeler les principes de la loi du 22 mai 2014, modifiée par la loi du 30 juillet 2018, et à la resituer dans son contexte historique. Cette note décrit également le processus initié par le Bureau fédéral du Plan pour rendre, en collaboration avec les personnes de contact des partis politiques, la loi opérationnelle. Les deux phases du chiffrage sont ensuite détaillées, la première ayant trait à l’estimation de l’impulsion budgétaire, la seconde à l’analyse d’impact. Enfin, les mérites et les limites de l’exercice sont discutés.


    De startnota voor de doorrekening van de verkiezingsprogramma's beoogt de beginselen van de wet van 22 mei 2014, gewijzigd door de wet van 30 juli 2018, in herinnering te brengen, en die in een historische context te situeren. Deze nota beschrijft eveneens het proces dat het Federaal Planbureau, in samenwerking met de contactpersonen van de politieke partijen, heeft opgestart om de wet operationeel te maken. Vervolgens worden de twee fasen van de doorrekening beschreven: de eerste fase heeft betrekking op de raming van de budgettaire impuls en de tweede fase op de impactanalyse. Tot slot worden de verdiensten en de beperkingen van de oefening besproken.

    DC2019_START_NOTE [11/01/2019]
  • Description et utilisation du modèle EXPEDITION
    Beschrijving en gebruik van het model EXPEDITION

    Dans le cadre de l’exercice de chiffrage des programmes électoraux, l’impact sur le revenu disponible d’un certain nombre de mesures proposées par les partis politiques sera calculé à l’aide de microdonnées administratives. Une telle approche permet d’isoler l’effet des mesures étudiées selon des caractéristiques des individus et des ménages. Les mesures pour lesquelles l’impact sur le revenu disponible sera chiffré relèvent du domaine de la sécurité sociale et de l’aide sociale complété par la réglementation relative aux allocations familiales, par les règles de cotisation et de retenue appliquées à ces allocations et par les règles en matière d’impôt des personnes physiques. L’instrument utilisé pour ces calculs est le modèle de microsimulation EXPEDITION. Le présent document décrit les caractéristiques principales de ce modèle et en illustre le fonctionnement à l’aide de deux simulations.


    In het kader van de doorrekeningsoefening wordt de impact van een aantal beleidsmaatregelen, voorgesteld door de politieke partijen, op het beschikbaar inkomen berekend met behulp van administratieve microgegevens. Deze aanpak laat toe om de impact van de bestudeerde maatregelen te verbijzonderen naar individuele en huishoudkarakteristieken. De beleidsmaatregelen waarvan de impact op het beschikbaar inkomen wordt doorgerekend zijn maatregelen die zich situeren binnen het domein van de sociale zekerheid en sociale bijstand, aangevuld met de regelgeving inzake kinderbijslag, de bijdrage- en inhoudingsregels die toegepast worden op deze uitkeringen en de regels inzake personenbelasting. Het instrument dat voor deze berekeningen wordt ingezet is het microsimulatiemodel EXPEDITION. De voorliggende nota beschrijft de belangrijkste eigenschappen van het model EXPEDITION en illustreert de werking van het model op basis van twee simulaties.

    DC2019_WP_03 [21/12/2018]
  • Value chain integration of export-oriented and domestic market manufacturing firms - An analysis based on a heterogeneous input-output table for Belgium

    For a finer analysis of competitiveness and value chain integration, this working paper presents a micro-data based breakdown of manufacturing industries in the 2010 Belgian supply-and-use and input-output tables into export-oriented and domestic market firms. The former are defined as those firms that export at least 25% of their turnover. Analyses based on the resulting export-heterogeneous IOT reveal differences between the two in terms of input structures and import behaviour: export-oriented manufacturers have lower value-added in output shares, and they import proportionally more of the intermediates they use. Moreover, exports of export-oriented manufacturers generate a substantial amount of value added in other Belgian firms, in particular providers of services. The policy implication of these results is that Belgium’s external competitiveness depends not only on exporters but also on firms that mainly serve the domestic market. To maximise the impact of export promotion in terms of domestically generated value added, the entire value chain for the production of exports must be taken into account.

    Working Paper 11-18 [26/09/2018]
  • Belgium’s Carbon Footprint - Calculations based on a national accounts consistent global multi-regional input-output table

    The traditional attribution of responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to producing countries may be distorted by international trade flows as importing emission-intensive commodities contributes to reducing a country’s production-based emissions. This has motivated the calculation of carbon footprints that measure the amount of domestic and foreign GHG emissions (directly and indirectly) embodied in commodities intended for final consumption by a country’s residents. In this
    working paper, we present carbon footprint estimations for Belgium based on global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables that have been made consistent with detailed Belgian national accounts. According to our calculations, Belgium’s carbon footprint is substantially higher than its productionbased emissions, which means that Belgium is a net importer of GHG emissions. Moreover, our results show that consistency with detailed national accounts does matter for MRIO-based carbon footprint calculations, in particular for a small open economy like Belgium.

    Working Paper 10-17 [28/09/2017]
  • Analyse du tableau input-output interrégional pour l’année 2010
    Analyse van de interregionale input-outputtabel voor het jaar 2010

    This working paper presents two analytical applications based on the interregional input-output (IO) table for Belgium for the year 2010. The Federal Planning Bureau constructed this table in 2015 in cooperation with the statistical authorities of the country’s three Regions (IBSA, SVR and IWEPS). The following standard IO analyses based on applying the Leontief model to the interregional IO table are presented here: the derivation of multipliers for each region and the estimation of regional value added and regional employment generated by domestic final demand and exports.

    Working Paper 05-16 [29/04/2016]
  • Een economische analyse van de sector van alcoholische dranken in België
    Une analyse économique du secteur des boissons alcoolisées en Belgique

    This paper analyses the importance of the production of alcoholic beverages for the Belgian economy, with a particular focus on beer. First, the paper provides an outline of the recent development of production, imports, exports and domestic use of alcoholic beverages. This product analysis is complemented by a study of the branch of alcoholic beverages in which production, added value, investments and employment are discussed. Finally, production, revenue and employment multipliers are calculated using the input-output tables for the year 2010, as well as the total contribution of the whole production and distribution chain of the produced and imported alcoholic beverages to Belgian GDP and employment.

    Working Paper 02-16 [14/01/2016]
  • Monitoring van de relancestrategie van de Federale regering – Voortgangsverslag
    Monitoring de la stratégie de relance du Gouvernement fédéral - Rapport d’avancement

    The present document is the fourth biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.

    This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on June 30, 2014).

    OPREP201403 [17/07/2014]
  • Monitoring de la stratégie de relance du Gouvernement fédéral - Rapport d’avancement
    Monitoring van de relancestrategie van de Federale regering - Voortgangsverslag

    The present document is the third biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.

    This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on January 31, 2014). In addition, the report attempts to provide an analysis of those measures.

    OPREP201401 [21/02/2014]
  • Tableaux Entrées-Sorties 2010
    Input-outputtabellen 2010

    L’Institut des Comptes Nationaux (ICN) présente dans cette publication les tableaux entrées-sorties à prix courants pour l’année 2010, élaborés conformément à la méthodologie du SEC 1995 ainsi que dans les nomenclatures NACE Rév. 2/CPA 2008. Conjointement aux tableaux des ressources et des emplois dont ils sont déduits, les tableaux entrées-sorties assurent la cohérence des comptes nationaux. Les tableaux présentés dans cette publication sont cohérents avec les Comptes nationaux, Partie 2 – Comptes détaillés et tableaux 2012, publiés par l’ICN en octobre 2013. Les tableaux entrées-sorties constituent en outre un instrument d’analyse, mis à la disposition des décideurs, pour l’étude des relations interindustrielles et les études d’impact direct et indirect.


    Het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (INR) presenteert in deze publicatie de input-outputtabellen tegen lopende prijzen voor het jaar 2010, opgesteld volgens de ESR95-methodologie en in NACE REV. 2 / CPA 2008. Samen met de aanbod- en gebruikstabellen, waarvan ze zijn afgeleid, verzekeren de input-outputtabellen de coherentie van de nationale rekeningen. De voorliggende tabellen zijn coherent met de Nationale rekeningen, Deel 2 – Gedetailleerde rekeningen en tabellen 2012, die in oktober 2013 door het INR werden gepubliceerd. De input-outputtabellen zijn tevens een analyse-instrument ten behoeve van het beleid, voor de studie van intersectorale relaties en voor directe en indirecte impactstudies.

    Input-Output Table 2010 [20/12/2013]
  • Monitoring de la stratégie de relance du Gouvernement fédéral - Rapport d’avancement
    Monitoring van de relancestrategie van de Federale regering - Voortgangsverslag

    The present document is the second biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.

    It offers an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on 30 June 2013). In addition, the report attempts to provide a first analysis of those measures. Through a number of selected indicators, it presents a numerical benchmark before implementation ­or, when possible, a first ex ante impact assessment.

    OPREP201302 [18/07/2013]
  • Monitoring de la stratégie de relance du gouvernement fédéral - Rapport d’avancement
    Monitoring van de relancestrategie van de Federale regering - Voortgangsverslag

    In July 2012, the federal government announced its economic stimulus strategy. The key objectives of the strategy include supporting the purchasing power of households, enhancing the economy’s competitiveness and creating more high-quality jobs.

    The stimulus strategy introduced a follow-up and monitoring procedure which commissions the Federal Planning Bureau to report the government every six months on the procedure’s evolution and the efficiency of the measures taken in view of the strategy’s objectives. This first monitoring report presents the monitoring procedure, gives an overview of the measures to follow up (the scope) and reviews the progress of implementation of the measures (situation on 31 January 2013).

    OPREP201301 [22/02/2013]
  • Short Term Update 03-12 : Special Topic - Is the Belgian economy more energy sensitive than other European economies?

    Since 2011Q2, economic growth in the euro area has been affected by the global slowdown and, above all, by the sovereign debt crisis. After negative GDP growth in 2011Q4 and 2012Q2, economic activity is expected to have contracted further in 2012Q3, resulting in a 0.5% decline in real GDP this year. A slight recovery is expected in the course of 2013, but annual euro area GDP growth should remain limited to 0.3%. This scenario remains highly uncertain as policy makers' decisiveness in tackling the euro crisis will be crucial to restore consumer and investor confidence.

    Belgian economic activity should decline slightly in 2012 (-0.1%) due to adverse economic conditions in Europe and budgetary austerity. The recent development of consumer and business confidence suggests that Belgian economic activity should stabilize in 2012Q3 after a marked decline in 2012Q2. From 2012Q4 onwards, GDP growth should gradually pick up in the wake of a tentative upswing in the euro area and reach 0.7% on an annual basis in 2013.

    Domestic employment fell in 2012Q1 and should only start to recover from the beginning of 2013 onwards. In 2012, the net increase in employment should amount to 11 000 units on average as it benefits from a favourable carry-over from 2011. In 2013, employment is expected to rise by 13 700 units. As employment growth falls behind the increase in the labour force for two consecutive years, unemployment is expected to rise by 9 100 units this year and by 24 000 units next year. As a result, the harmonised unemployment rate (Eurostat definition) for Belgium should rise from 7.2% in 2011 to 7.4% in 2013.

    According to our most recent inflation forecasts, finalised at the end of September, Belgian inflation, as measured by the yoy growth rate of the national consumer price index, should cool from 2.8% in 2012 to 1.7% in 2013. This is mainly due to a slight decrease in the crude oil price, but also to the fact that some fiscal measures taken in 2012 will no longer affect yoy growth of consumer prices from the beginning of 2013 onwards.

    STU 3-12 was finalised on 3 October 2012.
     

    Short Term Update 03-12 [Contributor - 17/10/2012]
  • Perspectives de l’évolution de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2030
    Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2030

    Dans le cadre dʹun accord de collaboration entre le Bureau fédéral du Plan et le SPF Mobilité et Transports, le Bureau fédéral du Plan réalise tous les trois ans des perspectives à long terme de l’évolution de la demande de transport en Belgique. Cet exercice permet d’élaborer une projection à politique inchangée permettant de dégager les tendances générales à long terme, de détecter les éléments  susceptibles de fonder une politique de transport et d’étudier l’impact de politiques de transport.

    Le fichier ci-joint tient compte de la correction de deux erreurs : l’une au tableau 28, l’autre au tableau 30. Ces modifications ne changent en rien les conclusions générales de l’étude.


    In het kader van een samenwerkingsakkoord tussen het Federaal Planbureau en de FOD Mobiliteit en Vervoer maakt het Federaal Planbureau om de drie jaar langetermijnvooruitzichten voor de transportvraag in België. Deze oefening heeft tot doel een projectie bij ongewijzigd beleid uit te werken die het mogelijk maakt de algemene trends op lange termijn te onderscheiden, elementen aan te reiken waarop een transportbeleid kan steunen en de impact van transportmaatregelen te bestuderen.

    In bijgevoegd bestand werden twee onjuistheden gecorrigeerd: de eerste in tabel 28, de tweede in tabel 30. Deze aanpassingen hebben geen enkele invloed op de algemene conclusies van de studie.

    FORTRANSP_01 [17/09/2012]
  • Offshoring and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand in Belgium

    A major concern regarding the consequences of offshoring is about the labour market position of low-skilled workers. This paper provides evidence for Belgium that offshoring has had a negative impact on the employment share of low-skilled workers in the manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2007. The main contribution to the fall in the low-skilled employment share came from materials offshoring to Central and Eastern Europe (21%), followed by business services offshoring (8%). In manufacturing industries with a higher ICT capital intensity the impact of offshoring is smaller. For market services industries, no robust conclusions regarding the impact of offshoring on low-skilled employment could be drawn.

    Working Paper 07-12 [30/05/2012]
  • Supply and Use Tables and Input-Output Tables 1995-2007 for Belgium - Methodology of Compilation

    Users of Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and Input-Output Tables (IOT) compiled in different national accounts (NA) vintages face a problem of consistency of their data due to revisions in the NA. This paper describes the methodology that has been followed to compile a consistent time series of Belgian SUT and IOT for the period 1995-2007, in line with the NA published in November 2010.

    Working Paper 06-12 [24/05/2012]
  • Analyse du secteur Horeca en Belgique
    Analyse van de horecasector in België

    This Working Paper gives an overall picture of the horeca industry in Belgium. The study focuses in particular on aspects of business demography, the importance of the sector for the Belgian economy, its development since the mid-nineties and the financial health of horeca companies. Since the provision of horeca services is a very labour-intensive activity, special  attention is paid to employment features.

    Working Paper 01-11 [01/02/2011]
  • Tableaux Entrées-Sorties de la Belgique pour 2005
    Input-outputtabellen van België voor 2005

    L’Institut des Comptes Nationaux (ICN) présente dans cette publication les tableaux entrées-sorties à prix courants pour l’année 2005 élaborés conformément à la méthodologie du SEC 1995. Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) est responsable, dans le cadre de l’ICN, de l’élaboration des tableaux entrées-sorties quinquennaux. Dans cette publication, la méthodologie de l’élaboration des tableaux entrées-sorties est décrite et les résultats sont présentés aux niveaux 6x6. Des tableaux plus détaillés sont disponibles (depuis fin mars 2010) sur le site internet du BFP. Le cadre des entrées et sorties décrit de manière détaillée le processus de production et les flux de biens et services dans l'économie belge. Conjointement aux tableaux des ressources et des emplois dont ils sont déduits, les tableaux entrées-sorties assurent la cohérence des comptes nationaux. Ils constituent en outre un instrument d’analyse, mis à la disposition des décideurs, pour l’étude des relations interindustrielles et les études d’impact direct et indirect. Ces dernières années, on a observé un renouveau de l'utilisation des tableaux emplois-ressources et des tableaux entrées-sorties, notamment à des fins d'analyse dans le domaine de la mondialisation et de l'économie de l'environnement.
     


    Het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (INR) presenteert in deze publicatie de input-outputtabellen tegen lopende prijzen voor het jaar 2005, opgesteld volgens de ESR95-methodologie. Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 is het Federaal Planbureau (FPB), binnen het kader van het INR, verantwoordelijk voor de opmaak van de vijfjaarlijkse input-outputtabellen. In de voorliggende publicatie wordt de methodologie die werd gevolgd bij de opmaak van de input-outputtabellen beschreven en worden resultaten getoond op 6x6 niveau. Meer gedetailleerde tabellen zijn (sedert eind maart 2010) beschikbaar op de website van het FPB. Het input-outputsysteem beschrijft op gedetailleerde wijze het productieproces en de goederen- en dienstenstromen in de Belgische economie. Samen met de aanbod- en gebruikstabellen, waarvan ze zijn afgeleid, verzekeren de input-outputtabellen de coherentie van de nationale rekeningen. Ze zijn tevens een analyse-instrument ten behoeve van het beleid, voor de studie van intersectorale relaties en voor directe en indirecte impactstudies.
    De laatste jaren wordt een revival in het gebruik van input-outputtabellen waargenomen, onder meer voor analyses in het domein van globalisering en milieu-economie.
     

    Input-Output Table 2005 [20/05/2010]
  • Perspectives à long terme de l’évolution des transports en Belgique : projection de référence
    Langetermijnvooruitzichten voor transport in België : referentiescenario

    L'efficacité du système de transport revêt une importance essentielle pour le développement économique de la Belgique. Toutefois, il apparaît aujourd'hui clairement que les transports ne contribuent pas seulement de façon positive à la prospérité économique, mais qu'ils entraînent aussi un certain nombre d'effets négatifs, comme en témoignent notamment les nombreux embouteillages et accidents de la route et la mauvaise qualité de l'air. Régulièrement, des politiques sont proposées afin de faire face à ces problèmes. L'objectif de ce rapport est de livrer un certain nombre d'éléments susceptibles de fonder une politique des transports, et ce, en donnant un aperçu des perspectives du transport dans notre pays. L'exercice a pour objectif d'élaborer des perspectives à long terme, ce qui implique de se concentrer sur les déterminants des tendances à long terme et moins sur les évolutions conjoncturelles. L'horizon de temps de cet exercice de prospective a été fixé à 2030. L'exercice laisse apparaître que pour certains indicateurs, l'évolution n'est pas aussi négative que ce que l'on imagine souvent mais que pour d'autres, le tableau est plus sombre.


    Een efficiënt functionerend transportsysteem is essentieel voor de economische ontwikkeling van België. Vandaag is het duidelijk dat transport niet enkel positieve bijdragen levert tot onze welvaart, maar ook negatieve effecten veroorzaakt. De vele files en verkeersongevallen en de slechte luchtkwaliteit zijn daar getuigen van. Er worden regelmatig beleidsvoorstellen geformuleerd om die problemen aan te pakken. Dit rapport wil elementen aanreiken om het beleid te ondersteunen door een beeld te schetsen van wat de toekomst zou kunnen brengen. De oefening heeft tot doel om langetermijnvooruitzichten op te stellen. Dat betekent dat er vooral aandacht besteed wordt aan de determinanten van de langetermijntrends, en minder aan cyclische bewegingen. De tijdshorizon is 2030. Uit de oefening blijkt dat voor sommige indicatoren de evolutie niet zo negatief is als vaak verwacht wordt, maar dat voor andere indicatoren het beeld weinig rooskleurig is.

    Planning Paper 107 [25/02/2009]
  • The PLANET Model: Methodological Report

    The PLANET model is a model of the Belgian Federal PLANning Bureau that models the relationship between the Economy and Transport. Its aim is to produce: (i) medium- and long-term projections of transport demand in Belg ium, both for passenger and freight transport; (ii) simulations of the effects of transport policy measures; (iii) cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. The methodological report describes the main features of the PLANET model.

    Working Paper 10-08 [16/05/2008]
  • STU 03-07 : Special Topic : Regional labour market dynamics in Belgium

    This year, the Belgian economy should register an increase in GDP of 2.7%. In 2008, economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.1%.

    In 2006, Belgian exports grew significantly slower than the relevant export markets. Belgian exporters thus suffered from important losses of market share.  Despite a steady deceleration of growth in the relevant export markets this year and next year, export growth should accelerate somewhat. Consequently, losses of export market shares should be more in line with their historical trend. The current account balance has worsened since 2003 due to the continued rise in oil prices. In 2007 and 2008, the slower increase in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro should limit the decline of the current account balance to 0.1% of GDP per year.

    Domestic demand growth, which is mainly determined by the evolution of private consumption and business investment, should amount to 3.2% this year and 2% next year. In 2007, private consumption will benefit from a strong rise in employment and in property income, while business investment will be stimulated by the high capacity utilisation rate and the ongoing rise in profitability. Next year, private consumption growth should decelerate due to a smaller rise in real disposable income and less favourable demand prospects should weigh on business investment. Domestic employment should increase by, on average, 61,300 persons in 2007 and 44,200 persons in 2008. As the number of jobs is growing faster than the labour force, broad administrative unemployment is expected to decrease by 57,800 persons this year and 20,400 persons next year. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (which is calculated by means of labour force surveys) is expected to fall from 8.2% in 2006 to 7.2% in 2008.

    The evolution of inflation, as measured by the national index of consumer prices, is strongly influenced by the evolution of natural gas prices, which should decline in 2007 and rise substantially in 2008. Consequently, inflation should amount to 1.7% this year and 2.2% next year.

    STU 3-07 was finalised on 5 October 2007.

    Short Term Update 03-07 [Contributor - 30/10/2007]
  • Kwalitatieve werkgelegenheidsdata voor België, een SAM-aanpak voor de periode 1999-2005

    In deze paper wordt een methodologie beschreven om een aantal sociale gegevens (zowel administratieve als enquêtegegevens) te enten op de informatie uit de nationale rekeningen, ten einde een kwalitatief beeld te krijgen van de (ontwikkeling van de) werkgelegenheid. Meer bepaald wordt de binnenlandse werkgelegenheid opgesplitst naar persoonskenmerken (geslacht, leeftijdsklasse en opleidingsniveau) en jobkenmerken (statuut en arbeidsregime). Die opdeling gebeurt op een gedetailleerd bedrijfstakniveau en conform de nationale rekeningen voor de jaren 1999 tot 2005. De hier ontwikkelde methodologie en resultaten vormen een eerste stap in de richting van de creatie van een Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) voor België.

    Working Paper 02-07 [28/02/2007]
  • Fiscal councils, independent forecasts and the budgetary process: lessons from the Belgian case

    This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils - the High Council of Finance and the National Accounts Institute - as well as their role in the budgetary planning process and emphasizes the part taken by the FPB in producing independent macroeconomic forecasts. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings.

    WP 04-06 [06/10/2006]
  • Fiscal councils, independent forecasts and the budgetary process: lessons from the Belgian case

    This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils as well as their role in the budgetary planning process. These institutions, created or reformed in depth in a context of large public deficits and increasing public debt-to-GDP ratios coupled with the regionalization of the Belgian state, are the result of a maturing process. The National Accounts Institute covers the positive side of the budgetary process, while the High Council of Finance deals with the normative side. Concerning the former domain, the creation of an independent institution to provide unbiased forecasts undeniably contributed to the consolidation of public finances in Belgium. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings. Our chief recommendations for making the budgetary process successful are: institutions dealing with positive economics should enjoy a fully independent status but remain public; positive and normative issues should be completely separated from an institutional point of view; and responsibility should be shared between several strong independent institutions so as to minimize political pressure.

    Working paper 04-06 [15/06/2006]
  • Déterminants de la localisation internationale, avec application aux secteurs Agoria
    Determinanten van internationale lokalisatie, met toepassing op de Agoriabranches

    Working Paper 16-05 [29/09/2005]
  • Analyse du secteur Horeca
    Analyse van de horecasector

    In deze studie wordt de Belgische horecasector onder de loep genomen. Naast een schets van de demografie van de ondernemingen wordt het belang van de horeca in de Belgische economie alsook de evolutie van de sector sedert het midden van de jaren 90 toegelicht. Wegens het arbeidsintensieve karakter van de productie van horecadiensten wordt hierbij bijzondere aandacht besteed aan het aspect werkgelegenheid. Voor deze studie werd een beroep gedaan op cijfermateriaal afkomstig uit de Nationale Rekeningen 1995-2003 en de Input-outputtabellen 2000, aangevuld met administratieve bronnen en enquêtes.


    Cette étude propose une analyse détaillée du secteur Horeca. Outre un aperçu de la démographie des entreprises, elle présente l’importance du secteur Horeca dans l’économie belge, ainsi que son évolution depuis le milieu des années nonante. La production de services Horeca nécessitant une main d’œuvre importante, une attention particulière est portée aux aspects d’emploi. Cette étude fait appel à des données provenant des Comptes nationaux 1995-2003 et aux tableaux entrées-sorties 2000, complétés par des bases de données administratives et des données d’enquêtes.

    Working Paper 21-04 [23/12/2004]
  • Modélisation trimestrielle des recettes de TVA dans Modtrim II
    Modellering op kwartaalbasis van de BTW-ontvangsten in Modtrim II

    Deze paper beschrijft de modellering van de btw-ontvangsten in het kwartaalmodel Modtrim II. In een eerste hoofdstuk worden de voornaamste kenmerken van het btw-regime en de inningsmodaliteiten in herinnering gebracht. Vervolgens worden het verloop van de impliciete btw-voet en de belangrijkste determinanten onderzocht. Een derde hoofdstuk is gewijd aan de timing en de amplitude van de cycli van de bruto btw-ontvangsten, de restituties en de bijhorende macro-economische grootheden. De eigenlijke modellering, bestaande uit een lange- en kortetermijnvergelijking, wordt voorgesteld in het vierde hoofdstuk, waarna simulaties buiten sample worden becommentarieerd. In het zesde en laatste hoofdstuk wordt aan de hand van een volledige modelsimulatie onderzocht hoe btw-ontvangsten reageren op vraagschokken.


    Le présent document décrit la modélisation des recettes de tva dans le modèle trimestriel Modtrim II. Une première section rappelle les principales caractéristiques du régime de la tva et de son mode de perception. L'évolution du taux implicite de la tva et ses principaux déterminants sont examinés dans une seconde section. Une troisième section est consacrée à l'examen du timing et des amplitudes cycliques des perceptions brutes de tva, des restitutions de tva et des indicateurs macroéconomiques afférents. Une quatrième section décrit la modélisation proposée, qui comprend une équation de long terme et une équation de court terme. Des simulations out of sample sont présentées dans une cinquième section. Enfin, la dernière section examine, à l’aide de l’ensemble du modèle, comment les recettes de tva réagissent à des chocs de demande.

    Working Paper 14-04 [01/06/2004]
  • 10 jaar Economische Begroting : Een terugblik op de kwaliteit van de vooruitzichten

    Sinds 1994 publiceert het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (inr) tweemaal per jaar macro-economische kortetermijnvooruitzichten, kortweg ‘economische begroting’ genoemd, die nodig zijn voor het opstellen van de federale ontvangsten- en uitgavenbegrotingen en het uitvoeren van de begrotingscontroles. Binnen het inr werd de taak van het voorbereiden van de economische begroting toevertrouwd aan het Federaal Planbureau (fpb). In deze ‘post mortem analyse’ worden de vooruitzichten voor de economische groei en de inflatie uit die economische begrotingen onderworpen aan een kwaliteitscontrole.

    Working Paper 13-04 [01/06/2004]
  • STU 01-04 : Special Topic - A post-mortem analysis after ten years of Economic Budget

    In 2003, real economic growth in Belgium amounted to 1.1% thanks to the recovery registered in the second half of the year. World trade growth, which has been remarkably strong since the last few months of 2003, should weaken and the impact of the more expensive euro should make itself more profoundly felt. The pace of exports and GDP growth should then slacken a little by the end of this year. All in all, GDP at constant prices should grow by 2.0% in 2004.

    Last year, solid domestic demand combined with disappointing exports led to a considerable negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth. Thanks to the strong recovery of exports and the weaker growth of domestic demand, that negative contribution should be transformed into a slightly positive contribution this year. Households will only reduce their savings rate when the situation on the labour market becomes noticeably brighter. However, the unemployment rate should only stabilize by the end of 2004, thereby preventing a further fall in the savings rate.

    This year, a gradual increase in employment should be registered. By the end of the year, employment should be 16,500 units higher than the level at the end of last year. Due to the low starting point at the beginning of this year and the fact that the increase is taking place gradually, employment in annual average should exceed last year’s level by only 7,000 units.

    Headline inflation should increase by 1.5% in 2004, as compared with 1.6% last year. On the one hand, underlying inflation should drop significantly as a result of the past appreciation of the euro and the moderate evolution of unit labour costs. On the other hand, the downward impact of the abolition/ reduction of radio and television license fees has been almost exhausted.

    Short Term Update 01-04 [Contributor - 18/03/2004]
  • Budget économique 2004 - Contrôle budgétaire
    Economische begroting 2004 - Begrotingscontrole

    Economic forecasts 2004 C [09/03/2004]
  • Tout savoir sur la confection du budget économique
    De opmaak van de economische begroting : een handleiding

    La loi du 21 décembre 1994 confie au Bureau fédéral du Plan, dans le cadre de sa participation à l’Institut des Comptes Nationaux, la mission d’établir le budget économique. Le présent document rappelle le cadre institutionnel dans lequel se situe la confection de ce dernier et en décrit les principales utilisations. Il expose également la méthodologie suivie et les principaux instruments développés à cet effet.


    De Wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Federaal Planbureau, als instelling die deel uitmaakt van het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen, het opstellen van de economische begroting als taak toevertrouwd. Deze paper schetst het insti-tutionele kader waarbinnen de opmaak van de economische begroting gebeurt en geeft een overzicht van het gebruik dat ervan wordt gemaakt. Tevens wordt ingegaan op de gevolgde methodologie en wordt beschreven welke instrumen-ten hiervoor werden ontwikkeld.

    Working Paper 17-03 [30/10/2003]
  • Budget économique 2004 - Prévisions économiques
    Economische begroting 2004 - Economische vooruitzichten

    Economic Forecasts 2004 [15/10/2003]
  • MODTRIM II : A quarterly model for the Belgian economy

    Since 1994 the Federal Planning Bureau has been using the annual version of the econometric model modtrim as a central tool to produce its short-term macroeconomic forecasts. At the origin of the project, and as its name indicates, this annual version was meant to be short-lived and quickly replaced by a quarterly version. Unfortunately, the lack of quarterly national accounts prevented from doing so for several years. In 1998, the Institute for National Accounts published official quarterly accounts for the first time and the construction of the quarterly version of the model started in Spring 2000. On that occasion, the opportunity was taken to reassess all behavioural equations of the model. The more limited availability of quarterly data, in comparison with annual data, implied that a more aggregated version of the accounting framework of the yearly model had to be constructed.

    Working Paper 06-03 [20/05/2003]
  • Budget économique 2003 - Contrôle budgétaire
    Economische begroting 2003 - Begrotingscontrole

    Economic Forecasts 2003 C [10/03/2003]
  • Budget économique 2003 - Prévisions économiques
    Economische begroting 2003 - Economische vooruitzichten

    Economic Forecasts 2003 [04/09/2002]
  • Budget économique 2002 - Contrôle budgétaire
    Economische begroting 2002 - Begrotingscontrole

    Economic Forecasts 2002 C [15/03/2002]
  • STU 01-02 : Special Topic - The business cycle in Belgium and the euro area: a comparison

    After an exceptional year in 2000, world trade growth deteriorated sharply in 2001. The collapse of world trade can be explained by the synchronized slackening of the three main economic powers (United States, Japan, and the European Union). The attacks of 11 September and their economic and political impact have, of course, amplified the downturn. The end of destocking and the hesitant recovery, which, according to certain indicators, may be starting in the United States during the first semester of this year, should allow world trade to regain positive growth rates, although a stronger recovery should not be expected before the second half of 2002.

    The Belgian economy was severely affected by the slowdown in world trade. On annual average, GDP should have grown by about 1.0% in 2001. In 2002 GDP should record an almost identical average annual increase, i.e. 0.9%. The composition and dynamics should, however, be quite different. After a first quarter marked by the impact of the bankruptcy of SABENA, real GDP should grow at positive qoq rates in a range between 0.5 and 1%. The economic upturn should only have a positive impact on employment by the end of the year. This year, consumer price inflation should fall below 2%. It seems that lower imported inflation is finally beginning to be passed on to the underlying inflation.

    Our forecast is counting on a gradual recovery in world trade, which should regain its full dynamics by the end of the year. We assume that the positive impact on economic recovery will mainly be observed in 2003. A strong recovery earlier this year would of course have a positive impact on growth in Europe and in Belgium as long as it does not give rise to an increase in oil prices.

    Short Term Update 01-02 [Contributor - 22/02/2002]
  • Budget économique 2002
    Economische begroting 2002

    Economic Forecasts 2002 [15/07/2001]
  • Budget économique 2001 - Contrôle budgétaire
    Economische begroting 2001 - Begrotingscontrole

    Economic Forecasts 2001 C [15/03/2001]
  • Budget économique 2001
    Economische begroting 2001

    Economic Forecasts 2001 [15/07/2000]
  • Budget économique 2000 - Contrôle budgétaire
    Economische begroting 2000 - Begrotingscontrole

    Economic Forecasts 2000 C [15/03/2000]
  • Budget économique 2000
    Economische begroting 2000

    Economic Forecasts 2000 [15/07/1999]
  • Budget économique 1999 - Contrôle budgétaire
    Economische begroting 1999 - Begrotingscontrole

    Economic Forecasts 1999 C [15/02/1999]
  • STU 04-98 : Special Topic - The accuracy of the FPB short-term economic forecasts since 1994

    The FPB is reassessing the state of the economy in 1998 and its possible evolution for 1999.

    In 1998 the Belgian economy has continued to grow strongly and has moved into a “mature” phase of recovery with exports and investment no longer providing the engine for growth. Private consumption, fed mainly by employment growth, moderate real wage increases and high consumer confidence, took over their role. Employment growth remains impressive.

    The outlook for the world economy for 1999 has deteriorated: the Asian crisis has widened and deepened and contagion effects have started to affect also Russia, Latin American countries and, to a lesser extent, Eastern Europe. World financial markets have shown extreme volatility. Continental European countries will be affected by the deterioration of the global economic performance and the weakening of the USD, but should nevertheless become the fastest growing area in the world.

    Any forecast concerning Belgium is fragile in this context but it seems likely that the GDP-growth forecast for 1999 given in July (2.6%) is too optimistic. The Belgian economy might not be growing faster than 2.2% with significant downward risks on the domestic and international side.

    Many uncertainties and downward risks regarding the international environment are linked, and, given the interdependencies in the global economy could trigger all the others and lead to a sharp deterioration in the overall economic situation.

    Export growth should be significantly lower than in 1998 while private consumption should be less affected. Employment should still increase by 0.8% and the unemployment rate should further fall from 8.6% to 8.3% (Eurostat standardised definition).

    In any case, consumption price inflation remains subdued at about 0.9% (1% for the “health” index). Wage increases will remain moderate, under the influence of the “wage norm”. Interest rates in Belgium drop in line with international rates. This should be a positive factor for domestic demand.

    Short Term Update 04-98 [Contributor - 24/11/1998]
  • Les déterminants macroéconomiques de l’emploi -Contribution aux rapports 1997 du CSE et du CCE
    Macro-economische determinanten van de werkgelegenheid - Bijdrage tot de rapporten 1997 van de HRW en de CRB

    Working Paper 05-98 [15/07/1998]
  • Budget économique 1999
    Economische begroting 1999

    Economic Forecasts 1999 [15/07/1998]
  • STU 02-98 : Special Topic - Explaining consumer price inflation

    Growth in Belgium in 1997 turned out significantly better than expected, but some weakening has occurred during the last quarter. The underlying trend in GDP growth should, however, confirm the 2.5% growth forecast for 1998.

    The weakening in growth activity at the end of last year is to a large extent due to a significantly lower rate of growth for exports. As has been mentioned in other FPB-publications, the Asia crisis is having a dampening effect on the world and also the Belgian economy. The impact of the Asia crisis will mainly be felt in trade. Export growth will, therefore, continue to be negatively affected by slower growth in world trade. Price competitiveness has, on the other hand, improved considerably during the last two years. All in all, net exports should continue to make a positive contribution to GDP growth, but this contribution will be smaller than in 1997. As the effect of the Asia crisis is expected to be limited to 1998, some increase in growth is again expected in 1999 with GDP growth of 2.8%.

    Domestic demand and particularly private consumption have continued to show a marked improvement. The consumer confidence index, strengthened by the creation of considerable employment opportunities, somewhat higher wage increases and good news concerning public finance, points to sustained consumer growth during the first quarters of 1998.

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of 2.6% over the next five years. But even with this rate of growth and moderate wage increases in accordance with the 1996 Framework Law, unemployment is likely to remain above the 1990 level. The growth in employment is estimated at around 0.75% per year and the supply of labour would increase by 0.2% per year.

    The general government borrowing requirement should continue to show a gradual decrease and become a surplus from 2002 onwards in an “unchanged policy” scenario. The primary surplus should remain close to 6% from 1997 to 2000 and should increase again from then on. The debt ratio and interest burden are clearly decreasing.

    Consumer price inflation should remain at 1.1% this year and show only a slight increase next year. If there are no external shocks and if wages continue to be constrained by the Competitiveness Law, there are few reasons why price stability should be threatened in future. Nominal interest rates should remain low.

    Short Term Update 02-98 [Contributor - 28/05/1998]
  • Budget économique 1998 - Contrôle budgétaire
    Economische begroting 1998 - Begrotingscontrole

    Economic Forecasts 1998 C [15/02/1998]
  • Budget économique 1998
    Economische begroting 1998

    Economic Forecasts 1998 [15/07/1997]
  • “MARIBEL-hervorming” - Doorlichting van verscheidene alternatieven ter herformulering van de MARIBEL-bijdrageverminderingen

    Working Paper 02-97 [15/05/1997]
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