What has been the damage of the financial crisis to Belgian GDP? An assessment based on the FPB’s medium-term outlook [ Working Paper 08-11 - 21/06/2011]

A consensus quickly emerged among national and international organizations, based on past experiences, that the financial crisis that erupted in 2008 would have a long-lasting impact on the level of output. An initial quantification of the potential output loss imputable to the crisis for Belgium was presented in WP 10-09. This Working Paper provides an update of this analysis and examines through the successive revisions of projections made by the Federal Planning Bureau how the perception of the crisis has evolved over the last two years and what its implications are for the medium run.  The shortfall in potential output is now estimated to be less than 3 %, close to the area-wide loss estimated for the OECD-countries.