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The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses



Macro-fiscal impact of an increase in minimal social benefits [11/01/2019]

This report presents the medium-term macroeconomic and macrofiscal impact of an increase in the federal minimal social benefits to the poverty threshold. It was drawn up at the request of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumer Affairs.

Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts [08/01/2019]

Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.

The growth of the Belgian economy should slightly pick up this year to 1.8% [08/02/2018]

Economic growth in the euro area was surprisingly high (2.5%) last year and is expected to remain solid (2.2%) in 2018. Against this backdrop, the growth forecasts for the Belgian economy in 2018 have been revised slightly upwards to 1.8%, compared to our September release. This favourable development leads to a rise in employment by 57000 people. This year, inflation is expected to cool down somewhat to 1.7% as a result of both the appreciation of the euro and the significant decrease in electricity prices in Flanders.



This theme includes the short-term and medium-term economic forecasts for Belgium, as well as the production of scenario analyses over that time horizon. The instruments developed to accomplish these tasks are the quarterly MODTRIM model and the annual HERMES and HERMREG models. The national forecasts and analyses are produced in the context of legal obligations at the request of the government or the social partners. The regional forecasts are a joint initiative of the FPB and the research departments of the three regions.

The short-term forecasts (through the combined use of the MODTRIM and HERMES models) aim to forecast the main aggregates for the Belgian economy for the next four to six quarters.

The medium-term forecasts (on the basis of the HERMES and HERMREG models) outline a future path for the Belgian economy at a national or regional level over a longer period (six years).

Furthermore, the FPB regularly produces scenario analyses (using the HERMES model) to assess the medium-term economic impact of exogenous shocks or economic policy measures.

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