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Themes

The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses

Contact

  • https://macro.plan.be

News

Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts [06/02/2024]

Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.

Economic Outlook 2023-2028 - June 2023 version [15/06/2023]

This report presents the results of the June version of the "Economic Outlook 2023-2028". It describes the international context and the outlook for Belgian economic growth, inflation, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, the labour market and public finances. The Outlook is based on information available on 6 June 2023.

Contact

  • https://macro.plan.be

The FPB publishes short-term forecasts every year in February and in September. They are used to prepare or adjust the federal budget. Final responsibility for these forecasts (also known as the 'Economic Budget') lies with the board of directors of the Institute of National Accounts.

Inflation forecasts on a monthly basis are updated every first Tuesday of the month (except for August).

Medium-term projections provide a macroeconomic projection for a six-year period. A projection is published in February as a contribution to the preparation of the Stability Programme and the National Reform Programme. An updated and more detailed projection is published in June.

Regional projections (for the three Belgian regions) are published in July in cooperation with the Institut bruxellois de statistique et d’analyse (IBSA), Statistiek Vlaanderen and the Institut wallon de l'évaluation, de la prospective et de la statistique (IWEPS). They are coherent with the June medium-term outlook.

In addition, scenario analyses are made to estimate the impact of external shocks or policy measures on the economic system.

Methods and tools

The above-mentioned forecasts and projections are prepared under an ‘unchanged policy assumption’. Only formally decided and sufficiently detailed measures are taken into account.

The FPB uses the following models to prepare its forecasts:

  • MODTRIM is used to prepare forecasts for the next four to six quarters. See Working Paper 05-14 for a description of this model.
  • The inflation module was designed to provide inflation forecasts on a monthly basis.
  • HERMES is used to produce detailed medium-term projections. See Working Paper 13-13 and DC2019 1 for a description of this model. Examples of scenario analyses can be found in Working Paper 10-18.
  • HERMREG is a multi-regional model developed and used in collaboration with the Institut bruxellois de statistique et d’analyse (IBSA), Statistiek Vlaanderen and the Institut wallon de l'évaluation, de la prospective et de la statistique (IWEPS). The top-down version of HERMREG produces projections that are consistent with national projections. The bottom-up version of HERMREG is used for scenario analyses and is described in Working Paper 1-22 and Working Paper 2-22.

Figures

The statistical annexes of the national and regional projections can be consulted in the Data section.

Contact

  • https://macro.plan.be
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