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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
The Federal Planning Bureau is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the macroeconomic forecasts that are used to set up the federal government budget. This working paper presents an update of the ex post assessment of the quality of these forecasts. Compared to the previous working papers devoted to this topic, the analysis is extended in several ways. Firstly, the number of variables examined is markedly increased, as is the number of statistical tests. Secondly, an evaluation of the quality of the quarterly forecasts is presented for the first time. In addition, this information is used to calculate the probability distribution of these forecasts and to construct a so‐called "fan chart".
The Working Paper presents a study or analysis conducted by the Federal Planning Bureau on its own initiative.
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Themes
Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses
JEL
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > Econometric Modeling > Forecasting and Other Model Applications [C53]
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook [E6]
Keywords
Federal Planning Bureau
