Federal Planning Bureau
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Non-take-up of employers' social security contributions cuts: the case of the “first recruitments” measure [02/05/2018]
The ‘first recruitments’ measure aims at supporting job creation in new and small firms through a reduction in employers' social security contributions. However, part of the eligible employers does not claim this reduction. Using administrative data from the National Social Security Office, we seek to quantify this phenomenon, which may bias the intended effect of the measure, and to identify profiles of non-take-up.
Removing youth sub-minimum wage rates in Belgium: did it affect youth employment? [16/03/2018]
Between April 2013 and January 2015, youth sub-minimum wage rates were repealed in Belgium. We identify the impact of the reform by comparing outcomes before and after the withdrawal, across eligible and ineligible categories of young workers, and across abolishing and not abolishing joint committees. Our results show that the reform had a small positive impact on wages and on retention rates and a comparable but negative impact on accession rates.
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The Federal Planning Bureau’s (FPB) analyses of the labour market are especially aimed at the medium-term and long-term outlooks and projections. Measures or reforms in the labour market, such as cuts in social security contributions or wage subsidies, are assessed on a regular basis.
The FPB carries out various activities on the theme of the labour market:
- The FPB studies and models interactions between macroeconomic evolutions and evolutions in the labour market. This allows the impact of potential government policies on the economy and of business cycle developments on the labour market to be assessed. Labour market modelling relies on a detailed analysis of the determinants of employment, wages, etc.
- The FPB draws up the Economic budget (see the theme ‘Short-term forecasting and business cycle’). This document provides the macro-economic short-term framework for drawing up the budget and reviews by the competent authorities and covers evolutions in employment, unemployment and wages.
- The FPB carries out detailed medium-term (6-year) forecasts of the evolution of the labour market on the national level and by industry (see the theme ‘Medium-term macroeconomic projections and analyses’). The FPB also produces these forecasts for each of the federated entities within the framework of the HERMREG project, in collaboration with the three regional institutions: SVR, BISA and IWEPS (see the theme ‘Medium-term macroeconomic projections and analyses > Regional Economy’).
Besides macroeconomic applications, analyses are also made based on individual longitudinal data, mainly in the field of wage setting. The impact of policies aimed at raising the participation rates in the labour market of certain groups is also studied through this approach.
Finally, the FPB also examines extensively its qualitative aspects, for instance the labour market segmentation according to demographic criteria or job characteristics.
Methods and Instruments
As well as different original analytical databases, the following instruments are used:
- the labour market modules of the national macroeconomic models MODTRIM, HERMES and Hermreg. HERMES contains specific modules for the working time, the labour costs, employment allocation between different types of work at branch level and for employment in the service voucher system.
- In HERMES as well as in HERMREG, labour supply is modelled using a sociodemographic module that can also project replacement demand created by exit of cohorts of workers from the labour market and the recruitment needs that should be met by new entrants on the labour market.
- panel, double difference and regression discontinuity analyses.
The last five press releases [More]
- Perspectives économiques 2019-2024 - Version de février 2019
Economische vooruitzichten 2019-2024 - Versie van februari 201914/02/2019 - La croissance de l’économie belge fléchirait à 1,3 % en 2019
De groei van de Belgische economie zou vertragen tot 1,3 % in 201907/02/2019 - La croissance de l’économie belge s’établirait à 1,5 % en 2018 et en 2019
De groei van de Belgische economie zou op 1,5 % uitkomen in 2018 en in 201906/09/2018 - Non-take-up van werkgeversbijdrageverminderingen: het FPB identificeert de oorzaken en stelt oplossingen voor
Non-recours aux mesures de réductions de cotisations patronales : le BFP identifie les causes et envisage des solutions22/06/2018 - Perspectives à cinq ans pour l'économie belge : ralentissement de la croissance économique, taux de chômage au plus bas et pas de retour à l'équilibre budgétaire sans nouvelles mesures
Vooruitzichten voor de Belgische economie tijdens de volgende vijf jaar: vertraging van de economische groei, zeer lage werkloosheidsgraad en geen begrotingsevenwicht zonder nieuwe maatregelen20/06/2018
The last five databases [More]
- Medium-Term Economic Outlook (2019-2024), February 2019 - Statistical annex 14/02/2019
- Economic budget 2019 / february 2019 - Statistical annex 07/02/2019
- Regional Economic Outlook 2018-2023 - Statistical annex 17/07/2018
- Qualitative employment data for Belgium : 1999-2015 31/05/2017
The last five publications [More]
- Perspectives économiques 2019-2024 - Version de février 2019
Economische vooruitzichten 2019-2024 - Versie van februari 2019 14/02/2019 - Prévisions économiques 2019 - Février
Economische vooruitzichten 2019 - Februari 07/02/2019 - Economische vooruitzichten 2018-2019 - september
Prévisions économiques 2018-2019 - septembre 06/09/2018 - Comprendre le non-recours aux mesures de réductions de cotisations patronales : une approche méthodologique mixte
De non-take-up van werkgeversbijdrage-verminderingen begrijpen: een gemengde methodologische benadering 22/06/2018 - Perspectives économiques 2018-2023
Economische vooruitzichten 2018-2023 20/06/2018
