External costs of transport 29/06/2020
This report quantifies the marginal external cost of transport (congestion costs and environmental costs) using the Federal Planning Bureau’s PLANET model and compares this to the transport taxes levied. These indicators were not covered in the ‘Projections of transport demand in Belgium by 2040’, published in 2019 by the Federal Planning Bureau and the FPS Mobility and Transport. In that sense this report supplements this publication.
REP 12117 (nl),
PLANET is a model developed by the Belgian Federal PLANning Bureau that models the relationship between Economy and Transport. Its aim is to produce: (i) medium- and long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium, both for passenger and freight transport; (ii) simulations of the effects of transport policy measures; (iii) cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. This methodological report describes the main features of the PLANET model, and more specifically, the version 4.0 used for the transport outlook published in January 2019.
WP 01-20 (en),
We compare the TCO of fully electric cars (BEV) with those of diesel and gasoline cars. In the size class “small”, BEV only have a lower TCO for an expected lifetime that exceeds most estimates of the planning horizon people use when purchasing cars. In the size class “medium”, BEVs have a lower TCO than conventional cars if their expected lifetime mileage is high enough. “Big” electric cars have higher TCO than their conventional counterparts for any reasonable assumption regarding their use profiles.
The cost of traffic congestion in Belgium 06/09/2019
This paper seeks to quantify the cost of the most important inefficiencies in Belgian transport taxation. To this end we calculate the welfare gain of an ideal, optimal tax/subsidy system across the transport market as a whole (i.e. considering private road traffic in conjunction with public transport). We found the total welfare gain to be 2.3 billion euros, of which 1.3 billion are due to time gains of remaining road users. Our measure lies significantly above those found in the literature, since we consider the distortion cause by a wide range of subsidies.
Perspectives de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2040
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2040 31/01/2019
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces, every three years, long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise is the fourth of its kind so far. It aims to make a projection of no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing elements on which transport policy should be based to be identified and the impact of transport policy measures to be studied.
The new Belgian CAr Stock MOdel, which is linked to the national transport demand model PLANET, is structured as follows: (a) The total desired car stock in each future year is a function of the country’s population and GDP per capita. (b) The probability that a car is scrapped is modelled as a function of its age and accumulated mileage. The desired car stock is then confronted with the remaining car stock to determine total car purchases. (c) Total sales are allocated to individual emission classes, using the parameter values of a Stated Preference discrete choice model. The model is then calibrated in order to reflect the current market and policy context in Belgium (d) The results are mapped into an inventory that is aggregated according to the EURO emission class. (e) In order to represent that the non-price barriers to electrified cars will decrease over time, we have implemented an alternative approach where the perceived acquisition costs decrease over time. Alternatively, this approach can be used to explore what would be the required decrease in subjective costs to reach a given future market share.
Working Paper 01-19 (en),
Transport models used for long-term projections should reflect the impact of shared, automated and electric mobility modes. The objective of the current paper is to derive lessons from the existing literature on vehicle ownership modelling to find options to further improve the PLANET model, which is used for projections of transport demand in Belgium.
PLANET is already well equipped to represent the impacts of shared and automated cars on the opportunity cost of travel time, the load factors and the annual mileage of cars.
Working Paper 08-17 (en),
The goal of this paper is to estimate the efficiency cost of one additional euro of revenue through the personal income tax system, considering its simultaneous effects on the labour market and the transport market. More precisely, we seek to derive estimates of the Marginal Excess Burden of marginal personal income tax rates in Belgium considering the subsidization of company cars. We find that taking into account of welfare losses in the transport market adds 5-7 cents to the welfare cost of an additional euro of tax revenue, compared to models that consider only the effects on the labour market. The cost of raising the top marginal tax rate rises by 28% to 58% depending on the model assumptions. As an aside, we estimate tax expenditure on the transport sector via the personal income tax system to be 1.9 billion euro. We conclude that there is scope for welfare improving by base broadening and rate cutting. The framework is applied to analyse the merits of cash-for-car proposals.
Working Paper 07-17 (en),
Working Paper 02-17 (fr),
This paper seeks to quantify the size and traffic effects of commuting subsidies in Belgium. To this end we implement the most recently available data on both the personal income tax treatment of commuting reimbursement and subsidies to rail commuters in the PLANET model. We find that subsidy rates by tend to differ strongly by mode and by type of reimbursement. Commuting by own car is generally subsidized at low levels, if it enjoys any subsidy at all. Commuting by company car, bike and public transport enjoy relatively high levels of subsidization. Policy simulations show the importance of commuting subsidies in steering the modal split. Both the exemptions for commuting reimbursements as well as subsidies for rail commuters moderately steer traffic away from private transport, while also lengthening the average commute.
Working Paper 11-16 (en),
The fiscal treatment of company cars in Belgium: effects on car demand, travel behaviour and external costs 24/02/2016
This paper seeks to understand how the current tax subsidy for the ownership and use of employer-provided cars influence behaviour by its recipients. We first seek to clarify how it affects the choice about cars, i.e. the number of cars a household owns, their engine size and their value. Second, we study the impact of the subsidy on the propensity to use a car for commuting and the number of kilometres driven for commuting and for other, private purposes. The analysis has been made on the basis of the BELDAM survey, a rich dataset on mobility behaviour in Belgium.
Working Paper 03-16 (en),
Perspectives de l’évolution de la demande de transport en Belgique à l’horizon 2030
Vooruitzichten van de transportvraag in België tegen 2030 08/12/2015
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces every three years long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise, the third of its kind so far, is aimed at making a projection with no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing to identify elements on which transport policy should be based and to study the impact of transport policy measures.
Fuel excise reform in Belgium - Long term effects on the environment, traffic and public finance 08/12/2015
This paper seeks to analyze the long term effects on traffic, environmental quality and public finance of the planned reform of fuel excise duties in Belgium. In the framework of a large scale tax reform, the Belgian federal government will implement an equalization of diesel and petrol excise rates over the 2016-2018 period.
Working Paper 09-15 (en),
Modal choice for travel to work and school - Recent trends and regional differences in Belgium 15/10/2014
Recent transport research suggests that car use is reaching its saturation level in many advanced economies. Particularly in metropolitan areas, car use is declining in favour of slow and public transport modes. Also young adults are found to have shifted travel preferences away from private cars. Looking at changes in transport modes for travel to work and school, we find similar trends in Belgium. The results are based on recent mobility data from the Belgian Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Socio-Economic Survey of 2001.
Working Paper 07-14 (en),
This working paper describes main evolutions in household expenditure for transport in Belgium. Results are based on data from national accounts (National Accounts Institute, Eurostat) as well as data from Household budget surveys (Statistics Belgium).
Working Paper 02-14 (fr),
This paper seeks to extend the PLANET model to allow for an endogenous influence of transport sector outcomes on the economy. To this end, we embed the PLANET data on freight and household transport for 2003 into a static CGE model of the Belgian economy. Households use transport for commuting and leisure transport, while production sectors use freight as an input. We allow for important feedback effects on generalized transport costs through congestion. To illustrate the model, we contrast the effects of a kilometre charge on freight only and a charge that targets household transport as well.
Working Paper 12-11 (en),
Analyse de politiques de transport : rapprochement des accises sur les carburants et Eurovignette III 27/01/2011
This study aims to analyse the impact of two transport pricing policies using the PLANET model. The transport policies are (1) a harmonisation of excise duties on petrol and diesel and (2) road pricing for heavy goods vehicles in accordance with the EU proposal for the Eurovignette III directive. The effects studied concern the consequences for the transport activity for persons and goods, the environmental impact and the impact on social welfare. For both policy types, the impact on the public budget is neutralized through general taxation or labour taxation.
Working Paper 02-11 (fr),
The PLANET model - Methodological Report: Modelling of Short Sea Shipping and Bus-Tram-Metro 24/06/2010
This Working Paper describes the methodological changes in the Modal and Time Choice module of the PLANET model, further to the endogenisation of short see shipping for international transport and the splitting of the Bus-Tram-Metro aggregate into three distinct transport modes.
Working Paper 16-10 (en),
Electric cars: Back to the future? 21/05/2010
The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the development of the EV in a couple of selected energy scenarios, to address the influence climate policy and the presence of nuclear energy can have on this development and to estimate the impact of different EV penetration rates on electricity demand. Throughout the paper, it becomes clear that, in the absence of specific, dedicated EV public programmes, policies and measures aimed at curbing climate change spark off the penetration of EVs, especially on a longer time horizon (up to 2030): with post 2012 climate policy in place, the pure EV penetration in 2020 attains approximately 2% of the road vehicle fleet while in 2030, around 5% of the road vehicle fleet will be electrically propelled. In the time span up to 2020, the electricity consumption of the EVs is rather small: it ranges between 0.4 and 0.5 TWh. It isn’t until 2025 and 2030 that EVs start to have a more visible impact on electricity consumption, stretching out between 1.2 and 1.4 TWh which represents approximately 1% of the total final electricity demand in 2030. Nuclear energy can then be a modest incentive for EVs through, assuming perfect market functioning, a decrease in electricity prices, hence triggering a slightly higher EV penetration.
This paper assumes that no specific dedicated policies are in place to stimulate the upsurge of EVs. If policy makers decide they want to support and even intensify the expansion of EVs considering their positive impact on oil independency, climate change, transport efficiency and possibly job retention/creation, further policy measures (beyond climate policy) embedded in a long term national master plan are of utmost importance.
Working Paper 13-10 (en),