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Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Every three years, the Federal Planning Bureau releases a publication on the long-term energy projections for Belgium, based on the energy model PRIMES. This Planning Paper is the third in the series and puts the emphasis on the link with climate change. Amongst other things, a baseline and a selection of emission reduction scenarios for the period after 2012 are described.
Articles - Article 2007121002
The publication of the fourth Federal Report on sustainable development implements the Belgian Act of 5 May 1997 on the Coordination of Federal Sustainable Development Policy. This Act institutes a strategic process of reporting, planning, implementation and monitoring in order to introduce these policies in Belgium at the federal level. This report proposes two long term (2050) sustainable development scenarios and assesses the existing situation, including the current policy on sustainable development.
Articles - Article 2007121001
The paper describes how an input-output table can be linked to detailed employment data in order to provide qualitative employment multipliers. Qualitative employment multipliers specify the direct and indirect labour use by final demand products of worker types differentiated by gender, age class, professional status, educational attainment level, labour regime or a combination of these characteristics.
Working Papers - Working Paper 15-07 (en),
In order to improve our understanding of the divergent evolutions that recently emerged between European countries in terms of labour productivity, this paper compares the labour productivity growth of three small open European countries: Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands. The analysis focuses on market services as they are the most important single factor that is responsible for the divergences. The comparison shows that, while Austria and Belgium recorded a decrease in their productivity growth between 1995 and 2004, the Netherlands followed the American pattern and has recorded an increase in their growth rate since 1995. The decomposition of labour productivity growth makes it possible to underline the important role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the Dutch upsurge in productivity growth. The breakdown of the data by industry shows the importance of the Distribution sector in the Dutch performance. The growth of TFP observed in the Distribution sector is then linked to different potential determinants: ICT accumulation and use, labour qualifications, R&D and innovation and regulations.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-07 (en),
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre de l’Economie les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique. Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 2 des Comptes nationaux 2006 (‘Comptes détaillés et tableaux’) et des agrégats trimestriels publiés jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2007.
Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur les prévisions de printemps de la Commission européenne (actualisées sur la base des observations trimestrielles jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2007), sur les prévisions intérimaires de la Commission européenne (publiées le 11 septembre), et enfin, sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers au 24 septembre. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle MODTRIM développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 28 septembre 2007.
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic forecasts 2008 (fr), (nl),
Le Bureau fédéral du Plan publie tous les trois ans un Planning Paper décrivant les perspectives énergétiques à long terme pour la Belgique. Ces perspectives en sont à leur troisième édition ; elles s’inscrivent cette fois plus spécifiquement dans le contexte du changement climatique. Le présent PP s’inspire en partie de trois études récemment publiées par le BFP : l’étude relative à la politique climatique post-2012 commanditée par le ministre fédéral de l’Environnement B. Tobback, l’étude sur la politique énergétique belge à l’horizon 2030 réalisée pour la Commission Energie 2030 mise sur pied par le ministre fédéral de l’Energie M. Verwilghen, et enfin, le Working Paper constituant la charnière entre les deux études susmentionnées et intitulé ‘Eclairage sur des enjeux de la politique énergétique belge confrontée au défi climatique’. Ces trois rapports partent du même scénario de référence mais proposent des scénarios alternatifs différents. Le présent PP résume les différentes approches et les principaux enseignements à tirer. Il analyse aussi un nouveau scénario axé sur l’efficacité énergétique et les économies d’énergie.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 102 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
This year, the Belgian economy should register an increase in GDP of 2.7%. In 2008, economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.1%.
In 2006, Belgian exports grew significantly slower than the relevant export markets. Belgian exporters thus suffered from important losses of market share. Despite a steady deceleration of growth in the relevant export markets this year and next year, export growth should accelerate somewhat. Consequently, losses of export market shares should be more in line with their historical trend. The current account balance has worsened since 2003 due to the continued rise in oil prices. In 2007 and 2008, the slower increase in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro should limit the decline of the current account balance to 0.1% of GDP per year.
Domestic demand growth, which is mainly determined by the evolution of private consumption and business investment, should amount to 3.2% this year and 2% next year. In 2007, private consumption will benefit from a strong rise in employment and in property income, while business investment will be stimulated by the high capacity utilisation rate and the ongoing rise in profitability. Next year, private consumption growth should decelerate due to a smaller rise in real disposable income and less favourable demand prospects should weigh on business investment. Domestic employment should increase by, on average, 61,300 persons in 2007 and 44,200 persons in 2008. As the number of jobs is growing faster than the labour force, broad administrative unemployment is expected to decrease by 57,800 persons this year and 20,400 persons next year. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (which is calculated by means of labour force surveys) is expected to fall from 8.2% in 2006 to 7.2% in 2008.
The evolution of inflation, as measured by the national index of consumer prices, is strongly influenced by the evolution of natural gas prices, which should decline in 2007 and rise substantially in 2008. Consequently, inflation should amount to 1.7% this year and 2.2% next year.
STU 3-07 was finalised on 5 October 2007.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-07 (en),
To improve our understanding of the divergent evolutions that recently emerged between European countries in terms of labour productivity, this working paper compares the labour productivity growth of three small open European countries: Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands. The analysis focuses on market services as they are the most important single factor that is responsible for the divergences.
Articles - Article 2007100507
If unemployment benefits are indexed to gross wages and the replacement rate between unemployment benefits and net wages affects the wage rate, then cutting taxes falling on the supply of labour (personal income taxes or employees' social-security contributions) increases employment more than reducing taxes falling on the demand for labour (employers' social-security contributions).
Articles - Article 2007100506
The distinction between the young and the elderly within low- and high-wage earning employment in HERMES, the FPB's medium-term macroeconomic model, enables the assessment of both age- and wage-related labour cost reduction policies.
Articles - Article 2007100505
Every three years, each EU Member State is required to set out its political priorities related to economic growth and job creation in a so-called National Reform Programme (NRP). The 2005-2008 programme prepared by the Belgian authorities proposes six lines of action for boosting growth and employment. For each of these lines of action, one or two quantitative objectives have been set out. In this working paper we compare the main macroeconomic objectives contained in the Belgian NRP with the results of the latest medium-term economic outlook produced by the Federal Planning Bureau. This no-policy-change scenario also serves as a baseline for analysing the effects on the main macroeconomic objectives of the government of a further reduction in social security contributions in order to ease the tax wedge on labour as foreseen in the NRP.
Articles - Article 2007100504
This working paper gives an overview of recent research aimed at refining forecasts and analysis of Belgian foreign trade. Regarding export markets, a new leading indicator is introduced as an additional tool for assessing the growth profile for Belgium's potential export markets in the first quarters to be forecast. With respect to exports, an analysis is made concerning the considerable and partly unexplained loss of export market share in recent years. It appears that (a lack of) competitiveness plays an important role in the evolution of Belgium's export market share, but it cannot explain it entirely.
Articles - Article 2007100503
In 2004, the Federal Planning Bureau has published two reports on long-term energy projections. They describe long-term energy projections for Belgium, but do not provide results on the level of the three Belgian regions (Flemish, Walloon and Brussels Capital). Since some major responsibilities in the field of energy have been regionalised, an insight into regional energy projections seems to be indispensable. The regions not only have to prepare an energy policy plan for the short term, but also have to come up with an energy plan that overlooks a more elaborate time horizon. At the request of theregions, the Federal Planning Bureau therefore embarked on a regionalisation of the energy scenarios described in the two cited reports, the results of which can be found in two working papers: one describing the results for the Flemish Region, the other the Region of Brussels Capital.
Articles - Article 2007100502
The August 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic outlook for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Federal Planning Bureau's macroeconometric world model.
Articles - Article 2007100501
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-07 (nl),
The distinction between the young and the elderly within low and high wage earning employment in HERMES, the FPB's medium-term macroeconomic model, enables the assessment of both age and wage related labour cost reducing policies. The age structure of salaried employment in each branch of activity is embedded in a three-stage mechanism. First, aggregate demand and the relative cost of labour to capital determine salaried employment. Next, relative wages allocate employment among three major labour categories: low-paid jobs, high-paid jobs and special-employment programmes. Finally, within each labour category relative wages allocate employment between the young (aged less than fifty) and the elderly (aged fifty or more).
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-07 (en),
Every three years, each EU member state is required to set out its political priorities related to economic growth and job creation in a so-called National Reform Programme ( NRP ). Gauged by the latest medium-term economic outlook produced by the Federal Planning Bureau, compliance with the main macroeconomic objectives contained in the Belgian NRP will still require sizable efforts, especially regarding the labour market. Furthermore, our analysis shows that reducing social security contributions in order to lower the tax wedge on labour as foreseen in the NRP , is efficient in increasing the employment rate, especially when targeted at low wage earners, but also that such policies have a negative effect on the objectives related to public finances and CO 2 emissions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-07 (fr),
This working paper gives an overview of the Modtrim team’s recent research in the field of Belgian exports and export markets. In the first chapter a new leading indicator is introduced as a supplementary tool to determine a growth profile for Belgium’s potential export markets in the first quarters of the forecasting period. In the second chapter, an attempt is made to improve forecasts of Belgium’s exports by breaking down the model equation into a goods and a services component. Finally, the third chapter reveals that (a lack of) competitiveness is probably not the only reason for the losses of export market share in Belgium and in some of its main trading partners in the past 25 years.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-07 (en),
This August 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue includes a number of essential stochastic results relative to our new outlook, as well as an assessment of other less easily quantifiable risks that are currently seen to weigh on the outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook and a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.
Prévisions & perspectives - NEO 02-07 (en),
Pour la sixième année consécutive, le Comité d’étude sur le vieillissement (CEV) transmet son Rapport annuel au gouvernement fédéral, dans le cadre de la loi du 5 septembre 2001 portant garantie d’une réduction continue de la dette publique et création d’un Fonds de vieillissement1. Il contient une évaluation du coût budgétaire du vieillissement, basée sur l’évolution des dépenses sociales.
Autres publications - OPVERG200701 - Report (fr), (nl),
En 2004, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a publié deux rapports intitulés « Perspectives énergétiques pour la Belgique à l’horizon 2030 » (Planning Paper 95) et « Demande maîtrisée d’électricité : élaboration d’une projection à l’horizon 2020 » (Working Paper 19-04). Ces rapports se concentrent sur la Belgique et ne détaillent pas les perspectives énergétiques par Région. A la demande de la Région de Bruxelles-Capitale, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a régionalisé les scénarios énergétiques décrits dans ces deux rapports et comparé les résultats de la régionalisation pour l’année 2000 avec les chiffres du bilan énergétique régional.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-07 (fr), (nl),
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.1% during the period 2007-2012, which is slightly higher than the potential rate (2.0%) and similar to the average growth rate of the euro area. This pace of growth follows a strong rebound in 2006 (3.0%), mainly driven by domestic demand, in a context of an improvement in international economic activity.
The average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the period 2007-2012, which is slightly lower than the increase in households’ disposable income. Purchasing power will especially be underpinned by employment growth in 2007 and 2008 and by higher increases in wages and social benefits at the end of the projection period. Investment growth should reach 2.7% during the period 2007-2012, reflecting the path of business investment growth (supported by high business profitability and stable demand prospects), but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should reach 5.7% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should amount to 0.2%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should (slowly) increase from 2007 onwards and attain 3.1% of GDP in 2012. The combination of moderate increases in domestic costs and limited rises in imported costs should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.
The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases (mainly at the start of the period) and various measures taken to promote employment. After a particularly high number of new jobs created in 2006 (44,000), employment growth should remain sustained: about 38,000 units should be created every year during the period 2007-2012. Between 2006 and 2012, manufacturing industrial employment should fall by 41,000 units but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 256,000. As the number of newly created jobs is growing faster than the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 13.9% in 2006 to 12.0% in 2012.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to present a net public financing surplus in 2007 (+0.1% of GDP) and to deteriorate in 2008 (-0.5% of GDP). During the following years, the net public financing requirement should gradually decline and the equilibrium should be restored at the end of the projection period, mainly thanks to a decrease in interest charges on the public debt. Consequently, the total public debt to GDP ratio is expected to decline from 87.5% in 2006 to 69.5% in 2012.
STU 2-07 was finalised on 18 May 2007.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-07 (en),
Le BFP publie depuis le début des années quatre-vingt des perspectives à moyen terme pour l’économie belge. Le document de travail ci-joint analyse les erreurs de projections pour les principaux indicateurs macro-économiques sur la période 1987-2005 et tente d’identifier l’origine de celles-ci. Une telle analyse vise à donner aux utilisateurs des perspectives une idée sur l’ampleur des incertitudes entourant de tels exercices et à mettre en évidence certaines faiblesses méthodologiques afin d’y remédier.
Working Papers - Working paper 08-07 (en),
The economic outlook for the Belgian economy is published each year by the Federal Planning Bureau in spring and presented to the representatives of the social partners within the Central Economic Council. This baseline is a no-policy-change scenario, notably with regard to fiscal and social policies, that is based upon an international environment founded on projections prepared by international institutions. In this working paper past projection errors are scrutinised to give users a broad idea of the precision of the projections and also to identify possible methodological weaknesses that should be improved.
Articles - Article 2007051802
The present paper follows up on the longstanding tradition of analysing trends in relocation or offshoring at the Federal Planning Bureau. Replicating and extending a method developed by the OECD, it provides a rough estimate for Belgium of the proportion of service jobs at risk of being offshored in the wake of information and communication technology (ICT) developments, and compares the results for Belgium with results for the EU15 and the US. Occupational employment data from the Labour Force Survey are used to produce this estimate by identifying service jobs that could possibly be offshored due to ICT-enabled tradability.
Articles - Article 2007051801
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