This report was drafted to meet the request of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumer Affairs to analyse the potential impact on the greenhouse gas emission reduction of a number of concrete measures submitted by the Climate Coalition. The report is mainly based on existing studies carried out by the Federal Planning Bureau.
In October 2017, the Federal Planning Bureau published its three-yearly energy outlook describing the Belgian energy and emission projections under unchanged policy up to horizon 2050. That outlook demonstrates that we are drifting away from agreed targets and international agreements made to protect future societies from hazardous levels of climate change. That is why that outlook is complemented by this report that adopts a different perspective. This publication describes and analyses three alternative policy scenarios that are compatible both with the 2030 EU Climate and Energy Framework and with the roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050.
This energy outlook describes the evolution of our national energy system by 2050, assuming unchanged policy. The analysis of this outlook makes it possible to assess, at Belgian level, whether it is necessary to adopt and the extent of new measures and policies in view of the 2030 European Framework for Climate and Energy and the transition towards a low-carbon society by 2050. As such, this outlook can make a useful contribution to the forthcoming debate on the Interfederal Energy Pact aimed at establishing a common energy vision to the different federated entities by 2030 and 2050.
On October 17, 2014, the Federal Planning Bureau published the fifth edition of its triennial long-term energy outlook. The report describes a Reference scenario up to 2050 and demonstrates the large discrepancy between this Reference scenario and what is necessary to be on track for the EU 2030 Climate/Energy Framework as well as for the low-carbon economy by 2050, hence the need for additional policies and measures. This observation led to the writing of this paper in which three policy driven scenarios that are compatible both with the 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction challenge outlined by the European Council are being scrutinised. The analysis encompasses environmental, energy system, economic and social impacts.
Every three years, the Federal Planning Bureau presents the long-term energy projections for Belgium. This fifth edition simulates the implementation of the EU Climate and Energy legislative Package at the level of the Belgian energy system by 2020. However, this exercise is not limited to 2020, but projects the evolution of the system until 2050.
In this working paper, the employment effect triggered by a transition towards an all renewable energy system in Belgium by 2050 is scrutinized. The job impact is estimated up until the year 2030. Using a labour intensity methodology, net job gains are to be expected in each renewable trajectory for any given year. A distinction is made between construction, installation and manufacturing (CIM) and operations, maintenance and fuel processing (O&M) jobs, with the maximum amount of CIM jobs created over the reference scenario exceeding the amount of O&M jobs. This points to the fact that renewable energy sources tend to have a higher construction and installation component in employment than fossil fuels. These installation jobs, along with numerous other job types (e.g. monitoring, planning, certifying), are bound to be and remain domestic. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of applying a decreasing employment multiplier over time is modeled, accompanied by an enumeration of arguments pro and contra using this type of multiplier. All through the paper, a number of reflections are brought to the fore that may nuance the obtained figures and effects. In order for the jobs to materialize, targeted educations, preferably in close collaboration with industry, technical schooling and interest in science are crucial. Enabling policies and measures within a solid, transparent policy framework should accompany the whole process. In this regard, some policy domains and actions are described that could prove useful in tapping the vast job potential.
The analysis presented in this Working Paper is based on the scenarios of the draft Prospective Study for Electricity (PSE2) elaborated by the Directorate General for Energy of the FPS Economy, S.M.E.s, Self-employed and Energy in collaboration with the Federal Planning Bureau. The question examined in this analysis is whether the total generation capacity calculated in the PSE2 is compatible with the results of an adequacy assessment following ENTSO-E’s methodology (ENTSO-E is the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity).
In 2011, the four Belgian ministers (1 federal, 3 regional) in charge of energy commissioned a consortium consisting of three scientific partners, being the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB), the Institut de Conseil et d'Etudes en Développement Durable (ICEDD) and the Vlaams Instituut voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO) to analyse the feasibility as well as the impact of a Belgian energy system transformation towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. This target is not focalized on the sole power sector, it applies to all primary energy consumed on the Belgian territory.
The main question that is raised in this publication is whether Belgium is able to fully function on renewable energy sources by 2050. Although the objective is highly ambitious, this study shows that it is (technically) possible. The switch to an all renewable system would require a total investment of 300 to 400 billion euro during the period up to 2050. At the same time, however, the transition offers an answer to many challenges.
By the end of 2008, the Federal Planning Bureau published the Working Paper 21-08. This Working Paper described and analysed the impact of the EU Climate-Energy Package on the Belgian energy system and economy. Since then, however, a lot has changed: the macroeconomic projections altered radically further to the financial and economic crisis, recent developments in the field of oil and gas supply and demand made fossil fuel price projections to be revised upwards and a number of energy efficiency measures were agreed upon and put into law in the course of 2008 and 2009. All this made the 2008 study less relevant whilst only 2 years old. This study report then updates the analysis reported in the Working Paper 21-08 and dedicates special attention to the stepping up to -30% for the EU greenhouse gas reduction target. It is based on the new economic and policy context and benefits from recent analyses of the European Commission conducted at EU level.
The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the development of the EV in a couple of selected energy scenarios, to address the influence climate policy and the presence of nuclear energy can have on this development and to estimate the impact of different EV penetration rates on electricity demand. Throughout the paper, it becomes clear that, in the absence of specific, dedicated EV public programmes, policies and measures aimed at curbing climate change spark off the penetration of EVs, especially on a longer time horizon (up to 2030): with post 2012 climate policy in place, the pure EV penetration in 2020 attains approximately 2% of the road vehicle fleet while in 2030, around 5% of the road vehicle fleet will be electrically propelled. In the time span up to 2020, the electricity consumption of the EVs is rather small: it ranges between 0.4 and 0.5 TWh. It isn’t until 2025 and 2030 that EVs start to have a more visible impact on electricity consumption, stretching out between 1.2 and 1.4 TWh which represents approximately 1% of the total final electricity demand in 2030. Nuclear energy can then be a modest incentive for EVs through, assuming perfect market functioning, a decrease in electricity prices, hence triggering a slightly higher EV penetration.
This paper assumes that no specific dedicated policies are in place to stimulate the upsurge of EVs. If policy makers decide they want to support and even intensify the expansion of EVs considering their positive impact on oil independency, climate change, transport efficiency and possibly job retention/creation, further policy measures (beyond climate policy) embedded in a long term national master plan are of utmost importance.
In December 2008, the European Union adopted an integrated Energy/Climate package which steps up the Union’s energy and climate policy ambitions to a new level and outlines how the effort will be shared among the Member States. This paper underlines the benefits of the EU Energy/Climate package in terms of energy supply security for Belgium, and more specifically the positive impacts the twin target – greenhouse gas emissions reduction and development of renewable energy sources – has on our dependence on fossil fuels. More specifically, the paper shows that substitutions in favour of renewables and a decrease in energy demand including the demand for electricity, which are the key responses of the Belgian energy system to the Energy/Climate package, not only allow to keep a balanced fuel mix in power generation in 2020 but also lead to reduced overall fossil fuel imports relative to baseline projections. They also water down the trend towards an increased dependency on natural gas imports. Net imports of fossil fuels decrease by 9% in 2020 compared to baseline trends. Compared to the year 2005, they increase only slightly by 3%. The growth of natural gas imports is limited to 11% over the same period, against +21% in the baseline.
In order to prepare for the negotiations on the EU Energy and Climate Package, the Federal Planning Bureau was asked by the Belgian federal and regional authorities to conduct a study on the impact of the January 2008 European Commission’s proposal. In the course of this study, various scenarios were run. Next to a baseline, two main alternative scenarios were scrutinised: the 20/20 and 30/20 target scenarios, standing for an EU reduction of respectively 20% and 30% of GHG emissions in the year 2020 compared to the level of 1990 and a 20% mandatory EU share of RES in Gross Final Energy Demand in 2020. The report then includes an analysis of the impact of both scenarios on the Belgian energy system and economy as well as on GHG emissions.