JEL classification

Description et utilisation du modèle Artelys Crystal Super Grid
Beschrijving en gebruik van het model Artelys Crystal Super Grid [06/02/2024]

The Artelys Crystal Super Grid model, developed by the French company Artelys, focuses on the electricity sector. Working with a high temporal resolution, it allows to evaluate the impact of measures affecting the production park, via several indicators. The latter notably relate to the security of supply, the cost of electricity, and the sustainability of the system, via the greenhouse gas emissions. 

Bon vent: setting sail for a climate neutral Belgian energy system – Future Belgian offshore wind unravelled [18/10/2021]

This paper examines what role offshore wind can play in helping Belgium achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The Belgian Exclusive Economic Zone is limited and its exploitation for energy purposes cannot be extended indefinitely. Therefore, this paper looks at the development of joint hybrid offshore wind projects that both provide renewable energy capacity and can serve as interconnectors linking different countries. Two scenarios are defined and studied. They differ in the level of ambition for these hybrid hubs and the necessary electricity supply for a de-fossilised Belgian economy.

Fuel for the future - More molecules or deep electrification of Belgium's energy system by 2050 [21/10/2020]

In this report, the Federal Planning Bureau sets out to scrutinise the place hydrogen can occupy in the future Belgian energy system by 2050. In fact, this publication focuses on two divergent evolutions of energy (end) uses: on the one hand, a far-reaching electrification of the final energy consumption, on the other, a sustained and increased use of gas for transport, (industrial) heating and power generation. Different outcomes of the two future visions are reported such as the required investments in infrastructure (interconnections, electrolysers, storage).

Drivers of wholesale electricity prices in a small, open economy - Some evidence from the nuclear restart in Belgium [12/10/2016]

In this paper, the impact of a nuclear downtime and subsequent restart on wholesale electricity prices on the Belgian power exchange is investigated by means of a dual methodology. First, publicly available market data is used to construct a stable statistical model that is deployed to examine the effect of nuclear power generation variations on market price outcomes. Quantifying this phenomenon, also called the merit-order effect, with the aid of econometric methods translates into an esti-mated price decrease of around 10 €/MWh for a nuclear capacity hike of 2.5 GW. The importance and impact of the openness of the Belgian market, that is, its strong reliance on cross-border energy exchanges is highlighted. Next to this empirical evidence, the optimisation tool Crystal Super Grid is used to assess the impact of the resumed availability of the nuclear reactors on several indicators characterising the Belgian and European power landscape. A positive effect on overall welfare, consumer surplus and CO₂ emissions can be noticed. As regards prices, this analysis confirms the negative merit-order effect which is calculated to equal, on average over a year, 3.8 €/MWh. Nevertheless, temporary hourly excesses of 30 €/MWh can occur. The paper then describes the possible causes of divergence between the two approaches.

Our findings have important policy implications as they demonstrate the need to take the downward influence of prolonged nuclear power generation on wholesale prices into consideration when revising the (timetable in the) nuclear phase-out law since it may have a delaying effect on the compulsory energy transition towards a low-carbon economy.

Demande maîtrisée d’électricité: Elaboration d’une projection à l’horizon 2020 [23/11/2004]

Perspectives énergétiques pour la Belgique à l’horizon 2030
Energievooruitzichten voor België tegen 2030 [05/04/2004]

La demande d’électricité en Belgique à l’horizon 2010 : Analyse comparative de projections réalisées entre 1999 et 2001 [21/05/2003]