Demography – principally, population and households – plays a role in numerous themes examined by the FPB.
The Population projections are a key parameter for studying the impact of ageing, an issue of growing concern for policymakers in Belgium and other European countries.
Population ageing, or the growing ratio of elderly people in the population, is primarily the result of both a decreasing fertility rate and the sustained prolongation of life expectancy. This evolution takes its toll on the public budget. The changes in the demographic structure lead to a decrease in the working-age population likely to pay social contributions and taxes on the one hand, and increase the number of elderly people who receive public pensions and a larger amount of health care on the other hand.
The essential parameters determining population should therefore be studied carefully: fertility, probability of death and decision to migrate within the country, to emigrate or to immigrate.
In addition to being one of the components of the demographic model, the projection of mortality rates is necessary because of the law of 28 April 2003 on supplementary pensions. The law provides that the FSMA bases its actualisation rules for converting capital to interest on the FPB’s prospective mortality tables.
Studying the population from the perspective of ‘households’ is also very useful for various social aspects (e.g. increase in single-parent families – the parent often being a single woman – households composed of an older person who might be confronted with poverty or insufficient support) and economic aspects (impact on housing, transport, mobility, consumption, taxation, etc.) of life. Within that framework and in line with the population projects, the FPB also draws up household projections.
Methods and tools
For demographic projections, three models are used:
- A model used for the long-term population projections and which is based on the component method. Thus, it constitutes an iterative model which uses fertility, mortality and (national and international) migration assumptions to calculate the population on 31 December of a specific year, using the latest observations by age, gender and nationality. This methodology allows assumptions for each component to be defined and forms an integrated part of the demographic model. The model simulates the long-term population (01/01/2061) by age and gender for each district.
- The model used for the household projections is a static model which breaks down the population projections by age, gender and district, based on the rate at which a position within the household occurs. The positions are defined by the LIPRO typology (Lifestyle Projections), which focuses on the factual situation of individuals and not on their legal situation. The position occurrence rates are not constant over the projection period, but are extrapolated by age, gender and district based on the (recent) evolution, with a saturation effect in the long term.
- The model used to calculate the prospective mortality tables is based on the population observations (births, deaths, population). It assesses the future curve of mortality rates by age and gender based on a specific model and allows prospective mortality tables to be generated which serve as a hypothesis for the population projections.
The last five press releases [More]
- Le vieillissement de la population belge se stabilise dès 2040 en raison de la fin progressive de l’effet baby-boom
Vanaf 2040 blijft de vergrijzing van de Belgische bevolking stabiel door de geleidelijke uitdoving van het babyboomeffect22/02/2018
- La Belgique vieillit et peut tabler sur 13 millions d’habitants et 5,8 millions de ménages en 2060
België vergrijst en verwacht 13 miljoen inwoners en 5,8 miljoen huishoudens in 2060.07/03/2017
- Afflux de réfugiés : hausse de la croissance démographique à court terme
Vluchtelingeninstroom: toename van de demografische groei op korte termijn14/03/2016
- Volgens de nieuwe demografische vooruitzichten zou België in 2060 13,1 miljoen inwoners en 5,9 miljoen huishoudens tellen. Dat zijn 1,9 miljoen inwoners en 1,1 miljoen huishoudens meer dan in 2014
Selon les nouvelles perspectives démographiques, la Belgique compterait 13,1 millions d’habitants et 5,9 millions de ménages en 2060. Soit une hausse de 1,9 million d’habitants et 1,1 million de ménages par rapport à 201417/03/2015
- A methodology for household projections: the HPROM model (Household PROjection Model)07/01/2015
The last five databases [More]
- Household projections 2017-2070 22/02/2018
- Population forecasts 2017-2070 22/02/2018
- Prospective mortality rates 2017-2070 22/02/2018
The last five publications [More]
- Multiregional Population Projection Model at the EU level 08/06/2018
- Perspectives démographiques 2017-2070 - Population et ménages
Demografische vooruitzichten 2017-2070 - Bevolking en huishoudens 22/02/2018
- Population projections 2016-2060 : sensitivity analyses, alternative scenarios and budgetary and social impact 05/02/2018
- Perspectives démographiques 2016-2060 - Population et ménages
Demografische vooruitzichten 2016-2060 - Bevolking en huishoudens 07/03/2017
- Projection of internal migration based on migration intensity and preferential flows 20/10/2016