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The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Social protection, demography and prospective studies

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Macro-fiscal impact of an increase in minimal social benefits [11/01/2019]

This report presents the medium-term macroeconomic and macrofiscal impact of an increase in the federal minimal social benefits to the poverty threshold. It was drawn up at the request of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumer Affairs.

What are the consequences of the AWG 2018 projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy? Simulations for three EU member states [19/07/2018]

In preparation of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report by the European Commission and the Social Protection Committee, teams from Belgium, Sweden and Italy use their microsimulation models to simulate the possible developments of pension adequacy while taking into account the set of economic and demographic projections developed by the AWG. The results of this exercise complement the AWG simulations of pension expenditures in a context of demographic. The results described in detail in this report were summarised in section 5.1.2. of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report

A Multiregional Population Projection Model at the EU level [08/06/2018]

This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.

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The Federal Planning Bureau regularly draws up short-, medium- and long-term projections of social expenditure, in particular in the field of pensions and healthcare, within the overall framework of public finances (see “Financial evolution of social protection”).  It also studies the redistributive effects of pension and social assistance schemes for the elderly (see “Income distribution and poverty”). These projections are based in particular on the population projections that are also drawn up by the FPB (see “Demography”).

Since 2002, the financial and social impact of ageing has been presented in the annual report of the Study Committee on Ageing (see “Study Committee on Ageing”). At the European level, the FPB takes an active part in the Working Group on Ageing Populations and Sustainability (AWG) (see “Ageing Working Group”) set up by the Economic Policy Committee of the European Council (ecofin). Every three years, starting in 2003, this working group draws up a report on the long-term projections of social expenditure for all EU Member States.

The know-how of the Federal Planning Bureau also covers the study of the financial and social impact of social and economic policy measures or proposals for measures. In this capacity, it is part of the Knowledge Centre on Pensions (see “Knowledge Centre on Pensions”), set up in 2015 in order to provide technical assistance to the Academic Council, the National Pension Committee and the ministers in charge of pensions.

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