The last five databases
The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.
Belgium's population growth in 2022 is exceptionally high (+104 000 inhabitants) according to the new demographic projections. In the long term, however, the increase is less dynamic than in the past thirty years. Population growth in Flanders will remain relatively similar to that of recent decades. Wallonia is experiencing significantly lower growth than previously. In Brussels, the population will hardly increase in projection.
MIDAS, the dynamic microsimulation model that focuses on the social sustainability of pensions, has undergone a major revision in recent years to improve the validity of the projections. This Working Paper not only reports on this revision, but also describes some important new modules.
In the context of the significant increase in the number of beneficiaries of the health and disability insurance observed over the last 20 years in Belgium, we seek to develop an explanatory model for work incapacity and disability. On the basis of SILC data, we attempt to identify and prioritise the effects of different factors that may influence the probability of employees' transitions between socio-economic statutes, and in particular to and from primary incapacity and disability.
Covid has affected Belgium's population growth in 2020, but to a lesser extent than anticipated in last year's Outlook. In particular, international migration has been little hit by international mobility restrictions. Life expectancy is set to rise again as from 2021. Covid is not expected to impact long-term population growth.
The Federal Planning Bureau regularly draws up short-, medium- and long-term projections of social expenditure, in particular in the field of pensions and healthcare, within the overall framework of public finances (see “Financial evolution of social protection”). It also studies the redistributive effects of pension and social assistance schemes for the elderly (see “Income distribution and poverty”). These projections are based in particular on the population projections that are also drawn up by the FPB (see “Demography”).
Since 2002, the financial and social impact of ageing has been presented in the annual report of the Study Committee on Ageing (see “Study Committee on Ageing”). At the European level, the FPB takes an active part in the Working Group on Ageing Populations and Sustainability (AWG) (see “Ageing Working Group”) set up by the Economic Policy Committee of the European Council (ecofin). Every three years, starting in 2003, this working group draws up a report on the long-term projections of social expenditure for all EU Member States.
The know-how of the Federal Planning Bureau also covers the study of the financial and social impact of social and economic policy measures or proposals for measures. In this capacity, it is part of the Knowledge Centre on Pensions (see “Knowledge Centre on Pensions”), set up in 2015 in order to provide technical assistance to the Academic Council, the National Pension Committee and the ministers in charge of pensions.