Federal Planning Bureau
Twenty years of policy for the sustainability of Belgian public finances - From a strategy of pre-funding the costs of ageing to a policy of reforms of the socio-economic model [28/02/2019]
The abolition of the Ageing fund in 2016 symbolises the transition from a strategy of pre-funding the budgetary cost of ageing to a strategy based on reforms to the socioeconomic model. This Planning Paper describes the economic and institutional factors behind the shift in fiscal sustainability policy, as well as the role of the various stakeholders. It also reviews the long-term projections produced by the Federal Planning Bureau over the past 25 years.
Macro-fiscal impact of an increase in minimal social benefits [11/01/2019]
This report presents the medium-term macroeconomic and macrofiscal impact of an increase in the federal minimal social benefits to the poverty threshold. It was drawn up at the request of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy and Consumer Affairs.
Within the short-term and medium-term macroeconomic outlooks, the financial flows related to social security are handled in detail, consistent with employment policy (see ‘Labour market’) and alternative financing of social security. The most recent government measures are also taken into account.
In the context of population ageing (see ‘Population’), the FPB draws up long-term financial outlooks for the social protection schemes within the overall topic of public finances. In these projections, the development of socioeconomic behaviours, the number of beneficiaries of social allowances and the corresponding amounts – which themselves react to the dynamics of salaries and career evolution – are followed closely. The assessment of public spending on health care differentiates between expenditure on acute care and expenditure on long-term care. The long-term studies, which are based on macroeconomic and social policy assumptions, show the developments of public finances, budget deficits or surpluses.
Methods and instruments
- Social security modules have been developed within the macroeconomic models MODTRIM, HERMES and HERMREG; they are supplied with a detailed exogenous analysis of social payments.
- On the basis of the population projections (see “Population projections” in WP 7-06), the results of the different peripheral models quoted below – with respect to specific socioeconomic behaviours and to pension and health care expenditure – are fed into the long-term model, MALTESE. This model provides a projection of all principal determinants of the long-term evolution of the expenditure on social protection within the overall framework of public finances (see MALTESE in WP 7-06).
- The MALTDEMO model is used to assess the future evolution of education and participation rates, while the HORBLOK model provides a projection of the number of pensioners in the different statutory pension schemes (see ‘Socio-demographic models’ in WP 7-06).
- The future pension amount is examined in separate models governed by specific calculation rules: PENSION for the employees’ scheme, MOSES for the self-employed scheme and PUBLIC for the civil servants’ pensions (see ‘Social protection models’ in WP 7-06).
- Public spending on health care is assessed using two models: an econometric model showing real acute expenditure per capita in function of specific determinants, and a macro-projection model for long-term care expenditure, which is mainly affected by ageing.
The last five press releases [More]
- Le fonds de vieillissement, qui s’en souvient ? ... vous reprendrez bien un peu de réformes ?
Het Zilverfonds, wie herinnert zich dat nog? ... nog verder hervormen?28/02/2019 - Perspectives à cinq ans pour l'économie belge : ralentissement de la croissance économique, taux de chômage au plus bas et pas de retour à l'équilibre budgétaire sans nouvelles mesures
Vooruitzichten voor de Belgische economie tijdens de volgende vijf jaar: vertraging van de economische groei, zeer lage werkloosheidsgraad en geen begrotingsevenwicht zonder nieuwe maatregelen20/06/2018 - The forecasts for the Belgian economy are characterised by modest growth, steady job creation and persistent public deficits20/06/2017
- Des perspectives pour l’économie belge caractérisées par un retour de la croissance, des créations d’emploi soutenues et une réduction des déficits publics
De vooruitzichten voor de Belgische economie worden gekenmerkt door een groeiherneming, een bestendige jobcreatie en een daling van het overheidstekort.12/05/2015 - La reprise attendue de l’activité économique en Europe et en Belgique s’inscrit dans un scénario de croissance revue à la baisse
Het verwachte herstel van de economische activiteit in Europa en België past in een neerwaarts herzien groeiscenario16/05/2013
The last five databases [More]
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The last five publications [More]
- Twenty years of policy for the sustainability of Belgian public finances - From a strategy of pre-funding the costs of ageing to a policy of reforms of the socio-economic model 28/02/2019
- Impact macrobudgétaire d’un relèvement des allocations sociales minimales
Macrobudgettaire impact van een verhoging van de minimale sociale uitkeringen 11/01/2019 - What are the consequences of the AWG 2018 projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy? Simulations for three EU member states 29/06/2018
- Perspectives économiques 2018-2023
Economische vooruitzichten 2018-2023 20/06/2018 - PROMES - Un nouvel instrument de projection des dépenses de l’AMI pour les soins de santé : Rapport final
PROMES - Een nieuw instrument voor de projectie van de ZIV-uitgaven geneeskundige zorg : Eindrapport 31/05/2018
