Page Title

Themes

The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Income distribution and poverty

Contact

  • http://maltese.plan.be

Medium-term projection for Belgium of the at-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion indicators based on EU-SILC [11/03/2019]

The Federal Planning Bureau has developed within the Nowcasting project a dynamic microsimulation model for nowcasting and medium-term forecasts (currently up to 2020) of indicators of poverty and social exclusion. Key messages of this project are that nowcasting and medium-term forecasting are now possible using a fully dynamic microsimulation model. The provisional results of the model suggest that the overall poverty risk would remain stable, but that of the 65+ subpopulation would decrease over time, while that of the younger population would show a small increase. Furthermore, the increase of overall ine-quality would come to a halt and the level of inequality would become more stable. Finally, the very low work intensity rate would continue its decrease, driven by the continuing increase of the employment rate among the working-age population.

What are the consequences of the AWG 2018 projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy? Simulations for three EU member states [19/07/2018]

In preparation of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report by the European Commission and the Social Protection Committee, teams from Belgium, Sweden and Italy use their microsimulation models to simulate the possible developments of pension adequacy while taking into account the set of economic and demographic projections developed by the AWG. The results of this exercise complement the AWG simulations of pension expenditures in a context of demographic. The results described in detail in this report were summarised in section 5.1.2. of the 2018 Pension Adequacy Report

Contact

  • http://maltese.plan.be

Besides analysing the budget outlooks for the pension schemes and the scheme of guaranteed income for the elderly, the FPB also examines these schemes from the point of view of income distribution.

What are the redistribution aspects of the different pension schemes? How does the poverty risk develop among pensioners? Are statutory pensions an efficient tool for fighting against poverty amongst the elderly? If so, will this still be the case in the years to come? How will the replacement rates of the different pensioner categories develop in each pension scheme? What would be the impact of reforms on the amount of the pension benefit for various types of beneficiaries? These are a few examples of the questions the Federal Planning Bureau is trying to answer.

Methods and tools

Parallel to analysing the suitability of the different statutory pension schemes in the fight against poverty and the evolution of the poverty rates (according to various data sources), the FPB also uses the following instruments:

  • the MALTESE model, used to study the repercussions of the evolution of socioeconomic behaviours as well as of social policy measures on future benefit rates within the context of population ageing;
  • MIDAS, a dynamic micro-simulation model based on a representative sample survey of the population using administrative data and which gives a long-term projection of the risk of poverty, the degree of pension inequality and other indicators with regard to pension adequacy (see WP 10-10).

Contact

  • http://maltese.plan.be
Please do not visit, its a trap for bots